比特币（BTC）正处于关键时刻，多头和空头竞相决定下一步方向

在比特币 (BTC) 创下 10 万美元以上的历史新高后，市场的主导观点之一是该资产有进一步上涨的潜力

After hitting a record high of over $100,000,ксперts are debating whether Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to rise or experience a downturn before attempting another all-time high.

在创下超过 100,000 美元的历史新高后，比特币 (BTC) 是否会继续上涨或经历低迷，然后再尝试创下新的历史新高，人们正在争论。

Legendary trading expert Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin may experience one final “dump” or an extended period of consolidation before its next significant move upward.

传奇交易专家彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）表示，比特币在下一次大幅上涨之前可能会经历一次最后的“暴跌”或长时间的盘整。

In an X post on January 12, Brandt used data to illustrate phases of Bitcoin's recent price history, which he labeled as “pump,” “hump,” and “dump.” A “pump” is a period of rapid upward momentum, like Bitcoin's rise from $70,000 to above $100,000 in late 2024, driven by strong buying and bullish sentiment amid the general post-election optimism.

在 1 月 12 日的 X 帖子中，布兰特使用数据来说明比特币近期价格历史的各个阶段，他将其标记为“暴涨”、“驼峰”和“暴跌”。 “泵”是指快速上涨势头的时期，例如在选举后普遍乐观情绪中强劲买盘和看涨情绪的推动下，比特币在 2024 年末从 70,000 美元上涨至 100,000 美元以上。

A “hump” follows as the rally slows and encounters resistance, like Bitcoin's December plateau that culminated in the current consolidation around the $95,000 mark.

当涨势放缓并遇到阻力时，就会出现“驼峰”，就像比特币 12 月的平台期一样，最终在 95,000 美元大关附近盘整。

Lastly, a “dump” represents a downward correction due to possible profit-taking or fading momentum, with another potential dip to $73,018 if key support fails.

最后，“抛售”代表由于可能的获利了结或势头减弱而出现的向下修正，如果关键支撑失败，则可能再次下跌至 73,018 美元。

According to Brandt, markets typically don’t sour until retail traders grow fatigued, which often precedes major price movements in cryptocurrency.

根据布兰特的说法，市场通常不会恶化，直到零售交易者变得疲倦，这通常发生在加密货币价格大幅波动之前。

“The big question in my mind is whether Bitcoin will get one more dump (or more lengthy congestive chop) before the pump. Remember, markets generally do not sour until retail traders get worn out,” Brandt said.

“我心中最大的问题是，比特币在上涨之前是否会再遭受一次抛售（或更长时间的充血性打击）。请记住，在散户交易者精疲力尽之前，市场通常不会恶化，”布兰特说。

Another prominent cryptocurrency analyst, Ali Martinez, shared a similar outlook in an X post on January 11, projecting that Bitcoin could either surge to as high as $140,000 or face a pullback to $67,000.

另一位著名的加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 在 1 月 11 日的 X 帖子中分享了类似的前景，预计比特币可能飙升至 140,000 美元，或者面临回调至 67,000 美元。

These projections are based on two key patterns observed on the 12-hour BTC chart: a bull pennant and a head-and-shoulders formation. The bull pennant, characterized by an initial price rally followed by consolidation with converging trendlines, signals a bullish continuation.

这些预测基于 12 小时 BTC 图表上观察到的两种关键模式：牛旗形和头肩形。牛市三角旗的特点是最初的价格上涨，随后是趋势线收敛的盘整，标志着看涨的持续。

On the other hand, the head-and-shoulders pattern, featuring a central peak (head) flanked by two lower highs (shoulders), points to a possible bearish reversal.

另一方面，头肩形态的特点是中央峰值（头部），两侧是两个较低的高点（肩部），表明可能出现看跌逆转。

As Bitcoin consolidates around the $95,000 mark, it appears to be at a critical juncture in determining its next price trajectory.

随着比特币在 95,000 美元大关附近盘整，它似乎正处于决定其下一个价格轨迹的关键时刻。

Some analysts, like Ali Martinez, anticipate the asset doubling in 2025, thanks to optimism stemming from the election of Donald Trump, who plans to make the United States a cryptocurrency investment hub.

阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 等一些分析师预计，由于唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 当选而带来的乐观情绪，资产将在 2025 年翻一番，他计划使美国成为加密货币投资中心。

For instance, banking giant Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will hit $200,000, mainly driven by institutional investors.

例如，银行业巨头渣打银行预测，主要由机构投资者推动，比特币将达到 20 万美元。

Additionally, as reported by Finbold, analyst Gert van Lagen predicted that Bitcoin could reach an ambitious target of $300,000 by March 30, 2025, based on the Elliott Wave Theory, which identifies repetitive market cycles.

此外，据 Finbold 报道，分析师 Gert van Lagen 预测，根据艾略特波浪理论（识别重复的市场周期），比特币可能会在 2025 年 3 月 30 日之前达到 30 万美元的雄心勃勃的目标。

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin continues to trade below the $100,000 mark, some analysts, like Alan Santana, express concerns that if it fails to close above this level, the asset could be headed for a steep drop, with some predicting a potential slide to as low as $40,000.

与此同时，随着比特币继续跌破 10 万美元大关，艾伦·桑塔纳 (Alan Santana) 等一些分析师表示担心，如果收盘价未能突破这一水平，该资产可能会大幅下跌，一些人预测可能会跌至最低水平。 40,000 美元。

Overall, if Trump supports the crypto space, as highlighted during his campaign, then Bitcoin will likely see further surges, driven by the excitement surrounding a possible clear regulatory framework that could attract institutional investors.

总体而言，如果特朗普支持加密货币领域，正如他在竞选期间强调的那样，那么比特币可能会进一步飙升，因为可能会出现一个可能吸引机构投资者的明确监管框架。

There is also a continued push to have mega-companies convert their cash reserves into Bitcoin to hedge against inflation. For example, with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) shareholders rejecting this idea, attention has turned to social media giant Meta (NASDAQ: META).

人们还继续推动大型公司将其现金储备转换为比特币，以对冲通胀。例如，随着微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）股东拒绝这一想法，人们的注意力转向了社交媒体巨头 Meta（纳斯达克股票代码：META）。

Specifically, a shareholder has proposed that Facebook's parent company convert part of its $72 billion cash reserve into Bitcoin. If approved, this move could position Meta as one of the leading traditional companies to hold Bitcoin, potentially catalyzing price growth.

具体来说，一位股东提议 Facebook 母公司将其 720 亿美元现金储备的一部分转换为比特币。如果获得批准，此举可能会使 Meta 成为持有比特币的领先传统公司之一，并有可能促进价格上涨。

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin showed continued consolidation around the $94,000 mark, with a valuation of $94,900. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has made modest gains of almost 0.5%, while on a weekly timeframe, BTC is down about 1.5%.

截至本报告发布时，比特币在 94,000 美元大关附近持续盘整，估值为 94,900 美元。在过去 24 小时内，该资产小幅上涨了近 0.5%，而在每周时间范围内，BTC 下跌了约 1.5%。