比特币（BTC）可能接近完成其价格更正，为2025年突破奠定了基础

根据最近的一个加密快速帖子，比特币（BTC）可能接近完成当前市场周期的价格校正。

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, Bitcoin (BTC) may be close to completing its price correction for the current market cycle.

根据加密贡献者Crypto Dan的最新加密快速帖子，比特币（BTC）可能接近完成当前市场周期的价格校正。

The premier cryptocurrency appears primed for positive movement in 2025, despite lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.

尽管宏观经济的不确定性持续存在，但在2025年，主要的加密货币似乎是为了积极运动。

Crypto Dan highlighted that BTC is currently undergoing a correction phase similar to the one observed in 2024. The analyst noted that the amount of BTC held for less than one week to one month can serve as an indicator of how “overheated” the crypto market is.

Crypto Dan强调，BTC目前正在进行与2024年观察到的校正阶段相似的校正阶段。分析师指出，持有的BTC数量不到一个星期到一个月，可以用来表明该加密市场的“过度加热”。

For context, in markets with high speculative activity – such as crypto – price pullbacks tend to be significant. In contrast, markets with lower speculation, like gold, typically experience shallower corrections.

在上下文中，在高投机活动（例如加密货币）的市场中，价格下跌趋势往往很大。相比之下，猜测较低的市场（例如黄金）通常会经历较浅的校正。

Crypto Dan shared the following chart showing three major phases of the crypto market – a market rally (red arrow), an increase in the ratio of BTC held for less than one week to one month (green pattern), and a subsequent correction (yellow arrow). He explained that this pattern has played out twice during the current bull market, with both instances showing similarly elevated levels of short-term BTC suggestions a comparable degree of market overheating.

Crypto Dan分享了以下图表，显示了加密市场的三个主要阶段 - 市场集会（红色箭头），持有的BTC比率增加了不到一个星期到一个月（绿色模式），以及随后的更正（黄色箭头）。他解释说，这种模式在当前的牛市中已经两次发挥作用，这两种情况都表明，短期BTC建议水平相似地提高了可比的市场过热程度。

This ratio has now reached a cycle low, highlighted in the yellow-box region of the chart. Notably, the same region also marked the bottom of the 2024 market cycle. If the pattern mirrors its behaviour from 2024, it could indicate that the current cycle has also bottomed out. Crypto Dan explained:

现在，该比率达到了一个循环，在图表的黄色盒子区域中突出显示。值得注意的是，同一地区也标志着2024年市场周期的底部。如果该模式从2024年开始反映其行为，则可以表明当前周期也已经触底了。加密丹解释说：

“In other words, the overheating is now resolved, and although we may need to wait a little longer, with the progress of macroeconomic issues, 2025 is likely to show a positive movement.”

“换句话说，现在已经解决了过热，尽管我们可能需要等待更长的时间，而随着宏观经济问题的进展，2025年可能会显示出积极的运动。”

Adding to the optimism, a separate post on X by crypto analyst Titan of Crypto also points to a possible shift in momentum. The analyst noted that BTC recently formed a golden cross on the daily chart – a bullish signal that often suggests a trend reversal is underway.

加密分析师泰坦（Titan）在X上的单独帖子增加了乐观，也表明了动量的转变。分析师指出，BTC最近在每日图表上形成了一个金十字架 - 看涨信号通常表明趋势逆转正在进行中。

For the uninitiated, a golden cross occurs when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average, signalling a potential long-term bullish trend. It’s widely seen as a buy signal by traders, indicating growing upward momentum.

对于初学者，当比特币的50天移动平均线超过其200天移动平均线时，就会发生黄金十字架，这表明潜在的长期看涨趋势。它被广泛视为交易者的买入信号，表明向上势头成长。

BTC Futures Sentiment Index Signals Caution

BTC期货情绪指数信号警告

Despite these bullish signals, not all analysts are convinced. Fellow CryptoQuant contributor abramchart recently observed that BTC’s futures sentiment index has continued to decline since February, suggesting a more cautious outlook among derivatives traders.

尽管有这些看涨信号，但并非所有分析师都相信。同胞加密贡献者Abramchart最近观察到，自2月以来，BTC的未来情绪指数一直在下降，这表明衍生品交易员的前景更加谨慎。

Another CryptoQuant contributor, Ben, highlighted a recent report by the ChainHead research institute, which suggests that China could be preparing to sell a large amount of confiscated BTC in 2024. According to Ben, this move may increase selling pressure and could potentially suppress BTC’s price in the short term.

另一位加密贡献者Ben强调了Chainhead Research Institute最近的一份报告，该报告表明，中国可能准备在2024年出售大量没收的BTC。

At press time, BTC trades at $84,766, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为84,766美元，在过去24小时内下跌0.1％。