比特币（BTC 4.72％）图表最近是过山车的骑行。

一月份，最初和最大的加密货币上升到每枚硬币106,182美元，然后在接下来的七个星期内下降了多达25.8％。

The Bitcoin (BTC 4.72%) chart has been a roller coaster ride recently.

比特币（BTC 4.72％）图表最近是过山车的骑行。

The original and largest cryptocurrency rose to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January, then fell back as much as 25.8% over the next seven weeks. That's a sharp retreat from a long upswing -- Bitcoin has more than quadrupled in price over the last two years. To put the gains in context, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.90%) market index showed a total return of 49% over the same period:

一月份，最初和最大的加密货币上升到每枚硬币106,182美元，然后在接下来的七个星期内下降了多达25.8％。这是一个漫长的上升的急剧撤退 - 在过去两年中，比特币的价格超过了。为了将收益置于上下文中，标准普尔500指数（^GSPC 1.90％）的市场指数在同一时期的总回报率为49％：

So Bitcoin snapped a long winning streak, dipping below $80,000 per coin for the first time since last November. Can the cryptocurrency get back to robust gains or Is the bull run all done?

因此，比特币在去年11月以来首次赢得了漫长的连胜纪录，每枚硬币低于80,000美元。加密货币可以恢复强劲的收益，还是公牛运行全部完成？

The bearish case

看跌案

First and foremost, some investors see very little value in Bitcoin in the first place. Warren Buffett wouldn't buy all the Bitcoin in the world for $25, because "it isn't going to do anything." It isn't a business operation, or a valuable lot of real estate, or a patch of food-producing farmland. The value of this digital asset isn't based on anything real, so the only way to make money with it is to find a buyer willing to pay a higher price.

首先，一些投资者首先看到比特币的价值很小。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）不会以25美元的价格购买世界上所有的比特币，因为“它不会做任何事情”。它不是商业经营，也不是一件宝贵的房地产，也不是一堆粮食生产的农田。该数字资产的价值不是基于任何真实的东西，因此赚钱的唯一方法是找到愿意支付更高价格的买家。

From that perspective, Bitcoin is long overdue for a price correction. The current market value of $1.62 trillion is a lot more than $25, after all.

从这个角度来看，比特币早已逾期用于价格校正。毕竟，目前的1.62万亿美元市场价值大量超过25美元。

And even if you see significant value in Bitcoin assets, you could still argue that it's overpriced. 2024 was packed with potentially game-changing price catalysts for Bitcoin. With the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on spot Bitcoin prices, the fourth halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, and the introduction of a more crypto-friendly U.S. government all in the rearview mirror, maybe there's no room for further gains in 2025.

即使您看到比特币资产的重要价值，您仍然可以说它价格过高。 2024年，比特币有可能改变游戏规则的价格催化剂。随着基于现货比特币价格，比特币采矿奖励的第四次减半以及在后视镜中引入更友好的美国政府的交易所交易资金（ETF），也许在2025年没有进一步的增长空间。

Furthermore, many crypto investors are nervous about recent advances in quantum computing. The next-generation computing technology will probably make current encryption algorithms breakable and worthless in the long run -- including the popular SHA-256 hashing system at the heart of Bitcoin's encryption security. Alphabet (GOOG 1.38%) (GOOGL 1.33%) and Microsoft (MSFT 2.21%) have taken massive leaps forward in recent months, arguably accelerating the quantum computing progress by several years. The thinking is that criminals and fraudsters must be on the threshold of hacking Bitcoin's digital transaction ledger to pieces.

此外，许多加密投资者对量子计算的最新进展感到紧张。从长远来看，下一代计算技术可能会使当前的加密算法可损坏且毫无价值 - 包括比特币加密安全性的核心的流行SHA-256哈希系统。字母（GOOG 1.38％）（GOOGL 1.33％）和Microsoft（MSFT 2.21％）在近几个月中取得了巨大的飞跃，可以说使量子计算的进度加速了几年。想法是，犯罪分子和欺诈者必须处于黑客比特币的数字交易分类帐的门槛上。

Where the Bitcoin bulls hang their hats

比特币公牛挂着帽子的地方

The Bitcoin whitepaper compares the cryptocurrency to physical gold. Instead of buying picks, shovels, mines, and ore refining equipment, Bitcoin miners invest in data centers and electric power. Either way, the two types of miner generate a scarce and therefore valuable resource. They are also useful in the real world: Gold is found in jewelry, medical devices, and electronics while Bitcoin offers a robust and flexible transaction ledger. Warren Buffett was never much of a gold investor, so his aversion to Bitcoin makes sense in this light.

比特币白皮书将加密货币与实物黄金进行了比较。比特币矿工没有购买选拔，铲子，矿山和矿石炼油设备，而是投资于数据中心和电力。无论哪种方式，两种类型的矿工都会产生稀缺，因此有价值的资源。它们在现实世界中也很有用：黄金在珠宝，医疗设备和电子设备中发现，而比特币则提供了强大而灵活的交易分类帐。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）从来都不是黄金投资者，因此他对比特币的厌恶是有意义的。

The ETF catalyst delivered some of its value before the actual event. Bitcoin prices rose 72% from early October, 2023 to January 12, 2024. In this time span, the rumor mill chatter about spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into solid expectations, culminating in their approval and introduction. But that's not the end of their value creation. The most popular name on the list, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT 6.00%) holds $47.4 billion of Bitcoin in a Coinbase Global (COIN 4.01%) custody service. This robust inflow of funds should be the start of a long-term trend. Deep-pocketed institutional investors aren't ready to open cryptocurrency brokerage accounts yet, but ETFs are easy to use in a standard stock portfolio. So the Bitcoin ETFs open the door to a larger (and richer) population of potential long-term investors.

ETF催化剂在实际事件发生之前提供了一些价值。比特币价格从2023年10月上旬到2024年1月12日上涨了72％。在这个时间范围内，关于现货比特币ETF的谣言聊天变成了扎实的期望，最终导致了他们的批准和介绍。但这不是其价值创造的终结。名单上最受欢迎的名字是Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF（IBIT 6.00％），在Coinbase Global（硬币4.01％）的监护权服务中持有474亿美元的比特币。这种强大的资金流入应该是长期趋势的开始。货运的机构投资者尚未准备好开设加密货币经纪帐户，但是ETF易于在标准股票投资组合中使用。因此，比特币ETF为潜在的长期投资者的较大（且更丰富）的人口打开了大门。

As for the Trump administration's cryptocurrency policies, only time will tell how they are changing the Bitcoin market. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn't shaping up to the Bitcoin-buying bonanza some crypto holders had expected, but more of a quiet alternative to gold reserves. A more laissez-faire approach to cryptocurrency regulation may indeed accelerate the widespread adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but the final regulations are probably still many years away.

至于特朗普政府的加密货币政策，只有时间才能说明他们如何改变比特币市场。战略性比特币储备并没有塑造一些加密货币持有者所期望的购买比特币的大富翁，而是更多的安静替代品替代黄金储备。采用加密货币法规的自由放任方法确实可以加速比特币和其他加密货币的广泛采用，但最终法规可能还有很多年了。

The quantum computing threat may sound terrifying. In reality, Bitcoin is very much under active development and should be immune to these attacks long before quantum computers are powerful enough to pose a real threat. There are math problems too difficult to solve with a mature quantum computer, and encryption systems are already adopting these stronger algorithms by the boatload. Meanwhile, even the

量子计算威胁听起来可能令人恐惧。实际上，比特币非常积极发展，应该在量子计算机强大到足以构成真正的威胁之前就可以免疫这些攻击。有数学问题很难用成熟的量子计算机解决，并且加密系统已经通过船负载采用了这些更强大的算法。同时，甚至是