比特幣（BTC 4.72％）圖表最近是過山車的騎行。

一月份，最初和最大的加密貨幣上升到每枚硬幣106,182美元，然後在接下來的七個星期內下降了多達25.8％。

The Bitcoin (BTC 4.72%) chart has been a roller coaster ride recently.

比特幣（BTC 4.72％）圖表最近是過山車的騎行。

The original and largest cryptocurrency rose to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January, then fell back as much as 25.8% over the next seven weeks. That's a sharp retreat from a long upswing -- Bitcoin has more than quadrupled in price over the last two years. To put the gains in context, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.90%) market index showed a total return of 49% over the same period:

一月份，最初和最大的加密貨幣上升到每枚硬幣106,182美元，然後在接下來的七個星期內下降了多達25.8％。這是一個漫長的上升的急劇撤退 - 在過去兩年中，比特幣的價格超過了。為了將收益置於上下文中，標準普爾500指數（^GSPC 1.90％）的市場指數在同一時期的總回報率為49％：

So Bitcoin snapped a long winning streak, dipping below $80,000 per coin for the first time since last November. Can the cryptocurrency get back to robust gains or Is the bull run all done?

因此，比特幣在去年11月以來首次贏得了漫長的連勝紀錄，每枚硬幣低於80,000美元。加密貨幣可以恢復強勁的收益，還是公牛運行全部完成？

The bearish case

看跌案

First and foremost, some investors see very little value in Bitcoin in the first place. Warren Buffett wouldn't buy all the Bitcoin in the world for $25, because "it isn't going to do anything." It isn't a business operation, or a valuable lot of real estate, or a patch of food-producing farmland. The value of this digital asset isn't based on anything real, so the only way to make money with it is to find a buyer willing to pay a higher price.

首先，一些投資者首先看到比特幣的價值很小。沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）不會以25美元的價格購買世界上所有的比特幣，因為“它不會做任何事情”。它不是商業經營，也不是一件寶貴的房地產，也不是一堆糧食生產的農田。該數字資產的價值不是基於任何真實的東西，因此賺錢的唯一方法是找到願意支付更高價格的買家。

From that perspective, Bitcoin is long overdue for a price correction. The current market value of $1.62 trillion is a lot more than $25, after all.

從這個角度來看，比特幣早已逾期用於價格校正。畢竟，目前的1.62萬億美元市場價值大量超過25美元。

And even if you see significant value in Bitcoin assets, you could still argue that it's overpriced. 2024 was packed with potentially game-changing price catalysts for Bitcoin. With the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on spot Bitcoin prices, the fourth halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, and the introduction of a more crypto-friendly U.S. government all in the rearview mirror, maybe there's no room for further gains in 2025.

即使您看到比特幣資產的重要價值，您仍然可以說它價格過高。 2024年，比特幣有可能改變遊戲規則的價格催化劑。隨著基於現貨比特幣價格，比特幣採礦獎勵的第四次減半以及在後視鏡中引入更友好的美國政府的交易所交易資金（ETF），也許在2025年沒有進一步的增長空間。

Furthermore, many crypto investors are nervous about recent advances in quantum computing. The next-generation computing technology will probably make current encryption algorithms breakable and worthless in the long run -- including the popular SHA-256 hashing system at the heart of Bitcoin's encryption security. Alphabet (GOOG 1.38%) (GOOGL 1.33%) and Microsoft (MSFT 2.21%) have taken massive leaps forward in recent months, arguably accelerating the quantum computing progress by several years. The thinking is that criminals and fraudsters must be on the threshold of hacking Bitcoin's digital transaction ledger to pieces.

此外，許多加密投資者對量子計算的最新進展感到緊張。從長遠來看，下一代計算技術可能會使當前的加密算法可損壞且毫無價值 - 包括比特幣加密安全性的核心的流行SHA-256哈希系統。字母（GOOG 1.38％）（GOOGL 1.33％）和Microsoft（MSFT 2.21％）在近幾個月中取得了巨大的飛躍，可以說使量子計算的進度加速了幾年。想法是，犯罪分子和欺詐者必須處於黑客比特幣的數字交易分類帳的門檻上。

Where the Bitcoin bulls hang their hats

比特幣公牛掛著帽子的地方

The Bitcoin whitepaper compares the cryptocurrency to physical gold. Instead of buying picks, shovels, mines, and ore refining equipment, Bitcoin miners invest in data centers and electric power. Either way, the two types of miner generate a scarce and therefore valuable resource. They are also useful in the real world: Gold is found in jewelry, medical devices, and electronics while Bitcoin offers a robust and flexible transaction ledger. Warren Buffett was never much of a gold investor, so his aversion to Bitcoin makes sense in this light.

比特幣白皮書將加密貨幣與實物黃金進行了比較。比特幣礦工沒有購買選拔，鏟子，礦山和礦石煉油設備，而是投資於數據中心和電力。無論哪種方式，兩種類型的礦工都會產生稀缺，因此有價值的資源。它們在現實世界中也很有用：黃金在珠寶，醫療設備和電子設備中發現，而比特幣則提供了強大而靈活的交易分類帳。沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）從來都不是黃金投資者，因此他對比特幣的厭惡是有意義的。

The ETF catalyst delivered some of its value before the actual event. Bitcoin prices rose 72% from early October, 2023 to January 12, 2024. In this time span, the rumor mill chatter about spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into solid expectations, culminating in their approval and introduction. But that's not the end of their value creation. The most popular name on the list, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT 6.00%) holds $47.4 billion of Bitcoin in a Coinbase Global (COIN 4.01%) custody service. This robust inflow of funds should be the start of a long-term trend. Deep-pocketed institutional investors aren't ready to open cryptocurrency brokerage accounts yet, but ETFs are easy to use in a standard stock portfolio. So the Bitcoin ETFs open the door to a larger (and richer) population of potential long-term investors.

ETF催化劑在實際事件發生之前提供了一些價值。比特幣價格從2023年10月上旬到2024年1月12日上漲了72％。在這個時間範圍內，關於現貨比特幣ETF的謠言聊天變成了紮實的期望，最終導致了他們的批准和介紹。但這不是其價值創造的終結。名單上最受歡迎的名字是Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF（IBIT 6.00％），在Coinbase Global（硬幣4.01％）的監護權服務中持有474億美元的比特幣。這種強大的資金流入應該是長期趨勢的開始。貨運的機構投資者尚未準備好開設加密貨幣經紀帳戶，但是ETF易於在標準股票投資組合中使用。因此，比特幣ETF為潛在的長期投資者的較大（且更豐富）的人口打開了大門。

As for the Trump administration's cryptocurrency policies, only time will tell how they are changing the Bitcoin market. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn't shaping up to the Bitcoin-buying bonanza some crypto holders had expected, but more of a quiet alternative to gold reserves. A more laissez-faire approach to cryptocurrency regulation may indeed accelerate the widespread adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but the final regulations are probably still many years away.

至於特朗普政府的加密貨幣政策，只有時間才能說明他們如何改變比特幣市場。戰略性比特幣儲備並沒有塑造一些加密貨幣持有者所期望的購買比特幣的大富翁，而是更多的安靜替代品替代黃金儲備。採用加密貨幣法規的自由放任方法確實可以加速比特幣和其他加密貨幣的廣泛採用，但最終法規可能還有很多年了。

The quantum computing threat may sound terrifying. In reality, Bitcoin is very much under active development and should be immune to these attacks long before quantum computers are powerful enough to pose a real threat. There are math problems too difficult to solve with a mature quantum computer, and encryption systems are already adopting these stronger algorithms by the boatload. Meanwhile, even the

量子計算威脅聽起來可能令人恐懼。實際上，比特幣非常積極發展，應該在量子計算機強大到足以構成真正的威脅之前就可以免疫這些攻擊。有數學問題很難用成熟的量子計算機解決，並且加密系統已經通過船負載採用了這些更強大的算法。同時，甚至是