比特币（BTC）投降事件先于短期价格回收率

在过去的24小时中，比特币[BTC]经历了显着波动。短期持有人（STHS）实现了巨大的损失，可能是恐慌造成的

Bitcoin [BTC] saw remarkable volatility over the last 24 hours. Short-Term Holders (STHs) incurred substantial losses, likely driven by panic-selling following the Bybit hack news.

比特币[BTC]在过去24小时内看到了显着的波动性。短期持有人（STHS）造成了重大损失，这可能是由于Bybit Hack News之后的恐慌销量驱动的。

Moreover, over the last 16 hours, BTC’s 4-hour chart on Binance showcased key bearish indicators.

此外，在过去的16个小时中，BTC关于二元的4小时图表展示了关键的看跌指标。

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross displayed a bearish crossover, as the 9-period EMA dropped below the 26-period EMA around hour 14, signaling short-term downward momentum.

指数移动平均线（EMA）交叉显示出看跌的交叉，因为9个周期EMA在14小时左右降落在26个周期EMA以下，这表明短期向下势头。

This corresponded with BTC’s price decline to $96,259.9, marking a -0.12% drop from the previous period.

这与BTC的价格下跌至96,259.9美元相对应，比上一时期下降了-0.12％。

Source: CoinGlass

资料来源：小店

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 46.05, reflecting a neutral but slightly bearish outlook.

相对强度指数（RSI）为46.05，反映了中性但稍微看跌的前景。

This RSI level suggested that BTC remained in a consolidation phase, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. If it rebounds above 50, bullish sentiment might return, supporting price recovery.

该RSI级别表明BTC仍处于合并阶段，没有明显的过分购买或超卖条件。如果它反弹超过50，看涨的情绪可能会返回，从而支持价格恢复。

Also, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showed a net volume delta of -94.67K, reflecting strong selling pressure in the last 8 hours.

此外，累积体积增量（CVD）的净体积增量为-94.67K，反映了过去8个小时内强劲的销售压力。

Collectively, these signals pointed to capitulation, where STHs offloaded BTC, potentially forming a short-term local bottom as selling pressure diminished.

总的来说，这些信号指出了投降，STH卸载了BTC，可能会形成短期的本地底部，因为销售压力降低。

Panic selling peaks- What is the turning point?

恐慌出售峰 - 转折点是什么？

The Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss (P&L) to Exchanges Sum chart for the last 24 hours also highlighted significant losses among STHs.

短期持有人的损益（P＆L）交换了过去24小时的交换总和图表也强调了STH的巨大损失。

The dominance of red bars, peaking at -43.9K BTC, indicated heavy panic-selling around $90K to $95K following the Bybit hack news.

在Bybit Hack News之后，红色酒吧的统治地位达到-43.9k BTC，表明猛烈的恐慌量约为90,000美元至95,000美元。

Source: CryptoQuant

资料来源：加密

The STH profit line remained minimal, reinforcing the idea that few short-term traders saw gains. Similar trends occurred in early 2022, where high realized losses preceded short-term price recoveries.

STH利润线仍然很少，这加强了很少有短期交易者看到收益的想法。类似的趋势发生在2022年初，在短期价格收回之前，高度实现的损失。

This data suggested a potential local bottom, as distressed selling often exhausts downward momentum, creating a possible buying window for traders.

这些数据暗示了潜在的本地底部，因为遇到的销售经常会使势头耗尽，从而为交易者创造了一个可能的购买窗口。

BTC’s liquidity shift

BTC的流动性转移

An analysis of the 90-Day Active Supply chart for BTC, covering 2012 to 2025, reflected a notable decline in recent months. As of early 2025, active supply hovered around 4M BTC, down from 6M BTC in late 2024.

涉及2012年至2025年的90天主动供应图表的分析反映了最近几个月的显着下降。截至2025年初，主动供应徘徊在400万BTC左右，低于2024年底的6m BTC。

This metric, indicated a decline in trading activity. Normally, rising active supply suggests higher demand and bullish sentiment, while declines signal distribution and reduced interest.

该指标表明交易活动的下降。通常，主动供应量的上升表明需求和看涨情绪，而信号分布下降并减少了利息。

The current trend implied STHs had largely exited, potentially reducing selling pressure.

当前暗示STH的趋势在很大程度上已退出，可能会降低销售压力。

This pattern mirrored 2018, when declining active supply preceded price stabilization, supporting the capitulation hypothesis and reinforcing short-term bottom formation.

这种模式反映了2018年，当有效供应降低价格先进的价格稳定之前，支持了投降假设并加强了短期底层的形成。

A sign of strength or further decline?

力量的迹象还是进一步下降？

Finally, a deep analysis of the BTC netflow chart for aggregated exchanges over the last three months revealed a sharp net outflow of -546.11 BTC in the past 24 hours.

最后，在过去三个月中，对BTC NetFlow图表进行了汇总交换的深入分析显示，过去24小时内的急剧净流出为-546.11 BTC。

This was a significant reversal from the previous week’s +226.57 BTC average inflows, and the 30-day average of +1.29K BTC inflows.

这与上周+226.57 BTC的平均流入率相比，这是一个显着的逆转，30天的平均水平为 +1.29k BTC流入。

A sudden negative netflow typically indicates that holders are withdrawing BTC to off-exchange wallets, suggesting reduced selling pressure.

突然的负网通常表明持有人正在将BTC撤回脱离交换钱包，这表明销售压力降低。

This pattern resembled mid-2021, when large BTC outflows preceded price rebounds. Notably, the 24-hour netflow change suggested renewed buying interest with +269.71 BTC.

这种模式类似于2021年中期，当时大型BTC出现了价格篮板。值得注意的是，24小时的NetFlow变化建议使用+269.71 BTC更新购买利息。

In conclusion, Capitulation events, such as heavy short-term holder losses and declining exchange netflows, historically precede short-term recoveries.

总之，投降事件，例如短期持有人损失和交换Netfrows等较大的交换，历史上是短期回收率之前的。

While short-term volatility remains, long-term indicators suggest a potential shift toward recovery as selling pressure subsides.

尽管短期波动率仍然存在，但长期指标表明，随着销售压力减轻的恢复，潜在的转变。