比特幣（BTC）投降事件先於短期價格回收率

在過去的24小時中，比特幣[BTC]經歷了顯著波動。短期持有人（STHS）實現了巨大的損失，可能是恐慌造成的

Bitcoin [BTC] saw remarkable volatility over the last 24 hours. Short-Term Holders (STHs) incurred substantial losses, likely driven by panic-selling following the Bybit hack news.

比特幣[BTC]在過去24小時內看到了顯著的波動性。短期持有人（STHS）造成了重大損失，這可能是由於Bybit Hack News之後的恐慌銷量驅動的。

Moreover, over the last 16 hours, BTC’s 4-hour chart on Binance showcased key bearish indicators.

此外，在過去的16個小時中，BTC關於二元的4小時圖表展示了關鍵的看跌指標。

The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross displayed a bearish crossover, as the 9-period EMA dropped below the 26-period EMA around hour 14, signaling short-term downward momentum.

指數移動平均線（EMA）交叉顯示出看跌的交叉，因為9個週期EMA在14小時左右降落在26個週期EMA以下，這表明短期向下勢頭。

This corresponded with BTC’s price decline to $96,259.9, marking a -0.12% drop from the previous period.

這與BTC的價格下跌至96,259.9美元相對應，比上一時期下降了-0.12％。

Source: CoinGlass

資料來源：小店

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 46.05, reflecting a neutral but slightly bearish outlook.

相對強度指數（RSI）為46.05，反映了中性但稍微看跌的前景。

This RSI level suggested that BTC remained in a consolidation phase, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. If it rebounds above 50, bullish sentiment might return, supporting price recovery.

該RSI級別表明BTC仍處於合併階段，沒有明顯的過分購買或超賣條件。如果它反彈超過50，看漲的情緒可能會返回，從而支持價格恢復。

Also, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showed a net volume delta of -94.67K, reflecting strong selling pressure in the last 8 hours.

此外，累積體積增量（CVD）的淨體積增量為-94.67K，反映了過去8個小時內強勁的銷售壓力。

Collectively, these signals pointed to capitulation, where STHs offloaded BTC, potentially forming a short-term local bottom as selling pressure diminished.

總的來說，這些信號指出了投降，STH卸載了BTC，可能會形成短期的本地底部，因為銷售壓力降低。

Panic selling peaks- What is the turning point?

恐慌出售峰 - 轉折點是什麼？

The Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss (P&L) to Exchanges Sum chart for the last 24 hours also highlighted significant losses among STHs.

短期持有人的損益（P＆L）交換了過去24小時的交換總和圖表也強調了STH的巨大損失。

The dominance of red bars, peaking at -43.9K BTC, indicated heavy panic-selling around $90K to $95K following the Bybit hack news.

在Bybit Hack News之後，紅色酒吧的統治地位達到-43.9k BTC，表明猛烈的恐慌量約為90,000美元至95,000美元。

Source: CryptoQuant

資料來源：加密

The STH profit line remained minimal, reinforcing the idea that few short-term traders saw gains. Similar trends occurred in early 2022, where high realized losses preceded short-term price recoveries.

STH利潤線仍然很少，這加強了很少有短期交易者看到收益的想法。類似的趨勢發生在2022年初，在短期價格收回之前，高度實現的損失。

This data suggested a potential local bottom, as distressed selling often exhausts downward momentum, creating a possible buying window for traders.

這些數據暗示了潛在的本地底部，因為遇到的銷售經常會使勢頭耗盡，從而為交易者創造了一個可能的購買窗口。

BTC’s liquidity shift

BTC的流動性轉移

An analysis of the 90-Day Active Supply chart for BTC, covering 2012 to 2025, reflected a notable decline in recent months. As of early 2025, active supply hovered around 4M BTC, down from 6M BTC in late 2024.

涉及2012年至2025年的90天主動供應圖表的分析反映了最近幾個月的顯著下降。截至2025年初，主動供應徘徊在400萬BTC左右，低於2024年底的6m BTC。

This metric, indicated a decline in trading activity. Normally, rising active supply suggests higher demand and bullish sentiment, while declines signal distribution and reduced interest.

該指標表明交易活動的下降。通常，主動供應量的上升表明需求和看漲情緒，而信號分佈下降並減少了利息。

The current trend implied STHs had largely exited, potentially reducing selling pressure.

當前暗示STH的趨勢在很大程度上已退出，可能會降低銷售壓力。

This pattern mirrored 2018, when declining active supply preceded price stabilization, supporting the capitulation hypothesis and reinforcing short-term bottom formation.

這種模式反映了2018年，當有效供應降低價格先進的價格穩定之前，支持了投降假設並加強了短期底層的形成。

A sign of strength or further decline?

力量的跡像還是進一步下降？

Finally, a deep analysis of the BTC netflow chart for aggregated exchanges over the last three months revealed a sharp net outflow of -546.11 BTC in the past 24 hours.

最後，在過去三個月中，對BTC NetFlow圖表進行了匯總交換的深入分析顯示，過去24小時內的急劇淨流出為-546.11 BTC。

This was a significant reversal from the previous week’s +226.57 BTC average inflows, and the 30-day average of +1.29K BTC inflows.

這與上週+226.57 BTC的平均流入率相比，這是一個顯著的逆轉，30天的平均水平為 +1.29k BTC流入。

A sudden negative netflow typically indicates that holders are withdrawing BTC to off-exchange wallets, suggesting reduced selling pressure.

突然的負網通常表明持有人正在將BTC撤回脫離交換錢包，這表明銷售壓力降低。

This pattern resembled mid-2021, when large BTC outflows preceded price rebounds. Notably, the 24-hour netflow change suggested renewed buying interest with +269.71 BTC.

這種模式類似於2021年中期，當時大型BTC出現了價格籃板。值得注意的是，24小時的NetFlow變化建議使用+269.71 BTC更新購買利息。

In conclusion, Capitulation events, such as heavy short-term holder losses and declining exchange netflows, historically precede short-term recoveries.

總之，投降事件，例如短期持有人損失和交換Netfrows等較大的交換，歷史上是短期回收率之前的。

While short-term volatility remains, long-term indicators suggest a potential shift toward recovery as selling pressure subsides.

儘管短期波動率仍然存在，但長期指標表明，隨著銷售壓力減輕的恢復，潛在的轉變。