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经过 10 月份的艰难开局后,比特币 (BTC) 迅速起飞,恢复了之前 65,000 美元至 67,000 美元之间的稳定水平
As October nears its conclusion, Bitcoin has experienced a rapid ascent, returning to its previously stable range between $65,000 and $67,000, sparking optimism among investors regarding the possibility of the world’s leading cryptocurrency reaching new all-time highs (ATH).
随着 10 月接近尾声,比特币经历了快速上涨,回到之前 65,000 美元至 67,000 美元之间的稳定区间,引发了投资者对全球领先加密货币达到新的历史高点 (ATH) 的可能性的乐观情绪。
However, many traders appear to be anticipating that BTC is nearing the upper limit of the current rally, as 58.23% of Binance accounts with open Bitcoin positions have begun shorting the cryptocurrency, according to data shared on X by prominent analyst Ali Martinez.
然而,根据著名分析师 Ali Martinez 在 X 上分享的数据,许多交易者似乎预计 BTC 即将接近当前反弹的上限,因为 58.23% 的持有比特币头寸的币安账户已开始做空该加密货币。
While Bitcoin does not fully encompass the realm of cryptocurrencies, and Binance hardly corresponds to the entirety of the crypto market, their sheer size and influence have made them a convenient barometer for gauging the overall direction and sentiment.
虽然比特币并没有完全涵盖加密货币领域,而币安也很难对应整个加密货币市场,但其庞大的规模和影响力使其成为衡量整体方向和情绪的便捷晴雨表。
Although Binance's market share in terms of centralized platforms’ volume fell some 20% from August to October, it remains a dominant exchange, handling 36.6% as of early October.
尽管币安在中心化平台交易量方面的市场份额从 8 月到 10 月下降了约 20%,但它仍然是主导交易所,截至 10 月初,其处理量为 36.6%。
Investors wary of a pullback despite eyeing new ATH
尽管关注新的ATH,投资者仍对回调持谨慎态度
The increasing proportion of shorts on Binance reflects a broader uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s next move.
币安空头比例的增加反映出比特币下一步走势存在更广泛的不确定性。
On the one hand, its recent rise – and the staggering surge of inflows for institutions offering Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) – signal confidence. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the recent surge occurred over October 14-16, with trading largely moving sideways since then.
一方面,比特币近期的上涨 — — 以及提供比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的机构资金流入的惊人激增 — — 表明了信心。另一方面,值得注意的是,最近的飙升发生在 10 月 14 日至 16 日期间,此后交易基本上呈横盘整理。
However, the overall trend appears to be up, with Martinez identifying on October 17 a critical level for BTC to hold at $66,780, leading to optimism among investors that it will rocket to $86,600 – a decisive new ATH, given the coin's current price at $67,780.
然而,总体趋势似乎是向上的,马丁内斯在 10 月 17 日确定 BTC 的关键水平为 66,780 美元,这导致投资者乐观地认为 BTC 将飙升至 86,600 美元——考虑到该代币目前的价格为 67,780 美元,这是一个决定性的新 ATH 。
The month of ‘Uptober’ also bolsters the bull case from a psychological perspective.
“Uptober”月份也从心理角度支持了牛市。
Historically, the tenth month of the year has been strong for Bitcoin and served as a prelude for a period of upward trading – usually lasting until May – as several experts noted when setting their Halloween BTC price targets.
从历史上看,比特币在今年的第十个月表现强劲,并成为一段上涨交易的前奏——通常持续到五月——正如几位专家在设定万圣节比特币价格目标时指出的那样。
But the positivity does not preclude the possibility of a sharp pullback, given the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets. Despite bullishness prevailing for most of 2024, Bitcoin has experienced several deep and sudden plunges.
但考虑到加密货币市场固有的波动性,这种积极情绪并不排除大幅回调的可能性。尽管 2024 年大部分时间看涨情绪盛行,但比特币却经历了几次深度和突然的暴跌。
Recent transfers by Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have also raised the prospect of substantial selling pressure.
埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 旗下电动汽车制造商特斯拉 (NASDAQ: TSLA) 最近的转让也引发了巨大抛售压力的前景。
Bitcoin price chart
比特币价格走势图
Irrespective of Bitcoin's next move, its recent performance has been strong overall, with a price of $67,780 at press time on October 18. In the 30-day chart, BTC is up 12.99%.
无论比特币下一步走势如何,其近期表现总体强劲,截至 10 月 18 日发稿时价格为 67,780 美元。在 30 日图表中,BTC 上涨了 12.99%。
Zooming out, the world’s premier cryptocurrency has risen significantly in 2024 and is up 59.55% year-to-date (YTD). However, it remains below the ATH of around $73,000 that it had reached in March.
缩小范围来看,全球首屈一指的加密货币在 2024 年大幅上涨,年初至今 (YTD) 上涨了 59.55%。然而,它仍低于 3 月份达到的 73,000 美元左右的最高水平。
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