比特币（BTC）公牛运行可能即将结束，三个发展表明

自2023年初以来，比特币（BTC）粉刷了经典的楼梯公牛奔跑，其特征是价格上涨，其次是时期

Bitcoin (BTC) has consolidated within a bullish stairstep pattern since early 2023, setting the stage for a bull breakout from the $20,000 bull run. However, three key developments suggest that BTC may face difficulties in continuing its stairstep bull run towards $120,000.

自2023年初以来，比特币（BTC）已在看涨的楼梯模式中巩固，为20,000美元的公牛跑步奠定了基础。但是，三个关键的发展表明，BTC可能会在继续其阶梯公牛往返12万美元的情况下面临困难。

Bitcoin price hints at a 2021-like topping pattern as it grinds higher

比特币的价格暗示了2021年式的浇头图案，因为它会更高

Bitcoin price has been grinding out a stairstep bull run since early 2023, leaving behind three consolidation ranges on the 14-week chart. Each breakout from the consolidation has led to a new leg up in the rally from $20,000.

自2023年初以来，比特币的价格一直在打磨楼梯牛的跑步，在14周的榜单上留下了三个合并范围。合并中的每一次突破都导致拉力赛的新腿从20,000美元开始。

Now, as BTC price attempts to rally towards $120,000, three macro and technical developments hint at a possible slowdown in the stairstep pattern.

现在，随着BTC的价格试图集结到120,000美元，三个宏观和技术发展暗示了阶段模式可能会放缓。

Tightening USD liquidity may hinder risk asset performance

收紧美元流动性可能会阻碍风险资产绩效

One thing that any asset class, not just crypto, typically dislikes is the tightening of fiat liquidity, especially the global reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar (USD). To the dismay of BTC bulls, the dollar liquidity is tightening due to several factors, as Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, noted on Yahoo Finance Live.

任何资产类别（不仅是加密货币）通常不喜欢的一件事是，菲亚特流动性的收紧，尤其是全球储备货币，美元（美元）。令BTC公牛感到沮丧的是，由于Yahoo Finance Live指出，Maelstrom的首席投资官Arthur Hayes表示，美元的流动性正在收紧。

"The traders on the floor are saying that the liquidity is drying up. We're seeing this in the Treasury General Account, which is the U.S. government's checking account at the Federal Reserve."

“地板上的交易者说流动性正在枯竭。我们在美国政府在美联储的支票帐户中看到了这一点。”

Notably, the USD cash balance held in the Treasury General Account (TGA) has increased by $176 billion in four weeks, according to data source MacroMicro.

根据数据源Macromicro的数据，值得注意的是，在国库总帐户（TGA）中持有的美元现金余额增加了1760亿美元。

After the U.S. hit its self-imposed debt limit of $36 trillion last month, markets hoped that the Treasury would run down the TGA balance as part of extraordinary measures to keep the government functioning, inadvertently enhancing liquidity in the economy and markets.

在美国上个月达到36万亿美元的自我债务限额之后，市场希望财政部将降低TGA余额，这是非凡措施的一部分，以保持政府运作，无意中提高经济和市场的流动性。

"We're looking at a scenario where key liquidity sources are drying up or being more tightly controlled. This could lead to a slowdown in economic activity, higher borrowing costs, and potentially a more challenging environment for risk assets, including crypto," Anddy Lian, thought leader and intergovernmental blockchain expert, told Cointelegraph.

“我们正在寻找一种场景，关键流动性来源正在枯竭或受到更严格的控制。这可能导致经济活动放缓，较高的借贷成本以及在内的风险资产的更具挑战性的环境，包括加密货币，” Anddy”思想领袖和政府间区块链专家Lian告诉Cointelegraph。

Trump administration to 'evaluate' strategic BTC reserve, dulling crypto anticipation

特朗普政府“评估”战略BTC储备，乏味的加密货币期望

Another development that has fallen short of crypto investors' expectations is the Trump administration's approach to establishing a strategic BTC reserve. It was a significant catalyst behind BTC's surge from $70,000 to over $100,000.

未达到加密投资者期望的另一个发展是特朗普政府建立战略性BTC储备的方法。这是BTC激增的重大催化剂，从70,000美元至100,000美元以上。

However, the administration seems to be taking a more cautious approach, opting to "evaluate" the feasibility of creating such a reserve. It's a shift from Trump's typical swiftness in addressing campaign promises.

但是，政府似乎采取了更加谨慎的态度，选择“评估”创建这样的储备的可行性。这是特朗普在解决竞选承诺方面的典型迅速发展的转变。

"Wait, Trump said he would do a $BTC Reserve, not promise to 'evaluate it.' Evaluate/Study is what Washington does when they don't want to do something," Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, LLC, said in a recent commentary.

“等等，特朗普说，他会做一个$ BTC的储备，不承诺'评估'。 Bianco Research，LLC总裁兼宏观策略师吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）在最近的一份评论中说。

BTC price dropped from over $100,000 to $96,000 during the overnight trade after Trump's crypto Czar told CNBC that a top agenda item for his new task force is evaluating the feasibility of a bitcoin reserve.

在特朗普的加密沙皇告诉CNBC之后，BTC的价格从超过100,000美元降至96,000美元，在隔夜交易中，他的新工作队的最高议程项目正在评估比特币储备的可行性。

Reappearance of a 2021 topping pattern in BTC price technicals

BTC价格技术中的2021年浇头模式的重新出现

Finally, those looking at technical charts to gauge the next move might want to pull up the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) on their screens.

最后，那些看衡量下一步行动的技术图表的人可能希望在屏幕上拉起14周的相对强度指数（RSI）。

That's because the oscillator has recently diverged bearishly in a move that marked the 2021 top. A bearish RSI divergence contradicts the higher high in prices, signaling a slowdown in the bullish momentum.

那是因为振荡器最近以占据标志着2021顶部的举动偏差。看跌的RSI差异与价格较高相矛盾，这表明看涨势头的势头放缓。

A closer look at the 14-week RSI reveals that the oscillator formed a lower high relative to its December peak, diverging bearishly from the continued price uptrend into 2024. This setup is similar to the one that preceded the 2021 top.

仔细观察14周的RSI表明，相对于12月的峰值，振荡器形成较低的高度，与持续价格上涨到2024年相差。这种设置类似于2021年代之前的设置。

The negative setup would be invalidated should the RSI cross above the falling trendline, representing the divergence, indicating a renewed bullish momentum.

如果RSI交叉在下降趋势线以上，代表分歧的情况下，负面设置将无效，表明看涨的势头。