每次比特币（BTC）公牛运行之后，熊市登陆

根据历史记录，在每个比特币（BTC）公牛运行之后，熊市的命中率和这个周期可能没有什么不同。

According to Benzinga, crypto expert Tony Severino has shared his prediction that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin (BTC) could see a 77% to 84% drawdown from its peak.

根据Benzinga的说法，加密货币专家Tony Severino分享了他的预测，如果历史重演，比特币（BTC）可能会从其顶峰中看到77％至84％的水位。

This would mean that BTC, which currently trades at $91,880, according to CoinMarketCap, may yet skyrocket to its highest point during this bull cycle before correcting to around $25,000 to $17,000 in the next bear market.

这意味着根据CoinMarketCap的数据，目前以91,880美元的价格交易的BTC可能仍可能在此公牛周期中飙升至其最高点，然后在下一个熊市中纠正至约25,000至17,000美元。

As Severino highlights in his analysis, Bitcoin has been going through a cycle of euphoric bull runs followed by severe bear market crashes. Three major corrections during the last three bull cycles are highlighted in the chart below:

正如Severino在分析中的重点时，比特币一直在经历欣喜若狂的公牛奔跑周期，随后发生了严重的熊市崩溃。下图中强调了最后三个牛周期中的三个重大校正：

During the 2013 to 2015 bear market, BTC hit a price peak and then plunged 86.64% to a bottom, marking the highest crash to date.

在2013年至2015年的熊市中，BTC达到了价格峰值，然后将86.64％的人跌至底部，这是迄今为止最高的崩溃。

Later, during the 2017 to 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell 84.04% from its all-time high.

后来，在2017年至2018年的熊市中，比特币从历史最高水平下降了84.04％。

Finally, from 2021 to 2022, the pioneer cryptocurrency experienced a 77.57% decline.

最终，从2021年到2022年，先锋加密货币下降了77.57％。

This bear market pattern shows that BTC often experiences significant price drawdowns after reaching a final ATH, with each subsequent correction being slightly less severe than the last.

这种熊市的模式表明，BTC在达到最终ATH后经常经历大量的价格下降，随后的每个校正都比最后一个校正略有严重。

Furthermore, Severino pointed out that the severity of Bitcoin’s decline in every bear market has decreased by 4% each cycle.

此外，Severino指出，每个熊市市场中比特币下降的严重程度都在每个周期下降4％。

The crypto expert also shared his thesis on this analysis, highlighting that instead of a 77% to 84% correction, the cryptocurrency could see a decline of 61.8% to 74% — a less drastic but still significant drop.

加密专家还分享了他在这项分析上的论文，强调，加密货币不再是77％至84％的纠正，而是下降了61.8％至74％，这是一个较少但仍然显着的下降。

Another unique aspect of Severino’s analysis is the influence of the Bitcoin halving event. The year after every halving event, BTC has historically hit an all-time high.

Severino分析的另一个独特方面是比特币减半事件的影响。每次减半比赛的那一年，BTC历史上都达到了历史最高水平。

Considering that the cryptocurrency hit an ATH before its halving event in 2024 and then another after the US Presidential elections in January 2025, the current market’s trajectory and the analyst’s forecast remain uncertain.

考虑到该加密货币在2024年减半的事件之前，在2025年1月举行的美国总统大选后进行了一次ATH，因此当前市场的轨迹和分析师的预测仍然不确定。