每次比特幣（BTC）公牛運行之後，熊市登陸

根據歷史記錄，在每個比特幣（BTC）公牛運行之後，熊市的命中率和這個週期可能沒有什麼不同。

According to Benzinga, crypto expert Tony Severino has shared his prediction that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin (BTC) could see a 77% to 84% drawdown from its peak.

根據Benzinga的說法，加密貨幣專家Tony Severino分享了他的預測，如果歷史重演，比特幣（BTC）可能會從其頂峰中看到77％至84％的水位。

This would mean that BTC, which currently trades at $91,880, according to CoinMarketCap, may yet skyrocket to its highest point during this bull cycle before correcting to around $25,000 to $17,000 in the next bear market.

這意味著根據CoinMarketCap的數據，目前以91,880美元的價格交易的BTC可能仍可能在此公牛週期中飆升至其最高點，然後在下一個熊市中糾正至約25,000至17,000美元。

As Severino highlights in his analysis, Bitcoin has been going through a cycle of euphoric bull runs followed by severe bear market crashes. Three major corrections during the last three bull cycles are highlighted in the chart below:

正如Severino在分析中的重點時，比特幣一直在經歷欣喜若狂的公牛奔跑週期，隨後發生了嚴重的熊市崩潰。下圖中強調了最後三個牛週期中的三個重大校正：

During the 2013 to 2015 bear market, BTC hit a price peak and then plunged 86.64% to a bottom, marking the highest crash to date.

在2013年至2015年的熊市中，BTC達到了價格峰值，然後將86.64％的人跌至底部，這是迄今為止最高的崩潰。

Later, during the 2017 to 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell 84.04% from its all-time high.

後來，在2017年至2018年的熊市中，比特幣從歷史最高水平下降了84.04％。

Finally, from 2021 to 2022, the pioneer cryptocurrency experienced a 77.57% decline.

最終，從2021年到2022年，先鋒加密貨幣下降了77.57％。

This bear market pattern shows that BTC often experiences significant price drawdowns after reaching a final ATH, with each subsequent correction being slightly less severe than the last.

這種熊市的模式表明，BTC在達到最終ATH後經常經歷大量的價格下降，隨後的每個校正都比最後一個校正略有嚴重。

Furthermore, Severino pointed out that the severity of Bitcoin’s decline in every bear market has decreased by 4% each cycle.

此外，Severino指出，每個熊市市場中比特幣下降的嚴重程度都在每個週期下降4％。

The crypto expert also shared his thesis on this analysis, highlighting that instead of a 77% to 84% correction, the cryptocurrency could see a decline of 61.8% to 74% — a less drastic but still significant drop.

加密專家還分享了他在這項分析上的論文，強調，加密貨幣不再是77％至84％的糾正，而是下降了61.8％至74％，這是一個較少但仍然顯著的下降。

Another unique aspect of Severino’s analysis is the influence of the Bitcoin halving event. The year after every halving event, BTC has historically hit an all-time high.

Severino分析的另一個獨特方面是比特幣減半事件的影響。每次減半比賽的那一年，BTC歷史上都達到了歷史最高水平。

Considering that the cryptocurrency hit an ATH before its halving event in 2024 and then another after the US Presidential elections in January 2025, the current market’s trajectory and the analyst’s forecast remain uncertain.

考慮到該加密貨幣在2024年減半的事件之前，在2025年1月舉行的美國總統大選後進行了一次ATH，因此當前市場的軌跡和分析師的預測仍然不確定。