After Every Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run, a Bear Market Hits

Based on historical records, after every Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, a bear market hits, and this cycle may be no different.

According to Benzinga, crypto expert Tony Severino has shared his prediction that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin (BTC) could see a 77% to 84% drawdown from its peak.

This would mean that BTC, which currently trades at $91,880, according to CoinMarketCap, may yet skyrocket to its highest point during this bull cycle before correcting to around $25,000 to $17,000 in the next bear market.

As Severino highlights in his analysis, Bitcoin has been going through a cycle of euphoric bull runs followed by severe bear market crashes. Three major corrections during the last three bull cycles are highlighted in the chart below:

During the 2013 to 2015 bear market, BTC hit a price peak and then plunged 86.64% to a bottom, marking the highest crash to date.

Later, during the 2017 to 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell 84.04% from its all-time high.

Finally, from 2021 to 2022, the pioneer cryptocurrency experienced a 77.57% decline.

This bear market pattern shows that BTC often experiences significant price drawdowns after reaching a final ATH, with each subsequent correction being slightly less severe than the last.

Furthermore, Severino pointed out that the severity of Bitcoin’s decline in every bear market has decreased by 4% each cycle.

The crypto expert also shared his thesis on this analysis, highlighting that instead of a 77% to 84% correction, the cryptocurrency could see a decline of 61.8% to 74% — a less drastic but still significant drop.

Another unique aspect of Severino’s analysis is the influence of the Bitcoin halving event. The year after every halving event, BTC has historically hit an all-time high.

Considering that the cryptocurrency hit an ATH before its halving event in 2024 and then another after the US Presidential elections in January 2025, the current market’s trajectory and the analyst’s forecast remain uncertain.