新预测称，比特币 (BTC) 将在 2025 年反弹至“高于宏观趋势”

交易资源 Material Indicators 联合创始人基思·艾伦 (Keith Alan) 在 11 月 4 日最新的 X 内容中看到，美国总统大选将影响两个月的选举结果。

Bitcoin price action will not reach new all-time highs until after the United States presidential election, according to fresh analysis from a popular trading resource.

根据热门交易资源的最新分析，直到美国总统大选之后，比特币价格走势才会创下历史新高。

Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan outlined four “assumptions” about short-term BTC price performance in his latest X content on Nov. 4.

Material Indicators 联合创始人 Keith Alan 在 11 月 4 日的最新 X 内容中概述了有关短期 BTC 价格表现的四个“假设”。

Bitcoin to beat macro trend “regardless”Bitcoin traders are bracing for volatility and surprise moves as US election day dawns, but some are already looking ahead to the result.

“无论如何”，比特币将战胜宏观趋势随着美国大选日的到来，比特币交易者正在为波动和意外走势做好准备，但一些人已经在期待结果。

For Alan, a Trump win would spark a “knee-jerk” reaction on BTC/USD, with the opposite happening if the Democrats hold onto power.

对于艾伦来说，特朗普获胜将引发比特币/美元的“下意识”反应，如果民主党继续掌权，则会发生相反的情况。

“Bitcoin will not make a new ATH before the votes are counted,” he concluded in one of four “assumptions” about short-term BTC price performance.

“在计票之前，比特币不会产生新的 ATH，”他在关于短期 BTC 价格表现的四个“假设”之一中总结道。

Alan noted that several support lines, including the April 2021 mid-cycle top and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), failed to become support, as did $69,000.

艾伦指出，包括 2021 年 4 月周期中期顶部和 21 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 在内的几条支撑线未能成为支撑，69,000 美元也是如此。

“Technical Support at the 50-Day MA is coming into focus with secondary support at the 21-Week MA, but the volatility could obliterate the technicals,” the post acknowledged.

该帖子承认：“50 日均线的技术支撑正成为焦点，而 21 周均线的二级支撑则成为焦点，但波动性可能会消除技术面。”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/XBitcoin may have a longer-term headache from geopolitical flux.

BTC/美元 1 日图表。资料来源：Keith Alan/XBitcoin 可能会因地缘政治变化而感到长期头痛。

It may take until the new government is officially in power for the market to outperform again, which will occur in mid-January.

可能要等到新政府正式执政后，市场才会再次跑赢大盘，这将发生在一月中旬。

“Won’t get relief from this $hitstorm of politics induced anxiety, stress, chaos or market volatility until Inauguration Day, Jan 20th,” Alan concluded.

艾伦总结道：“直到 1 月 20 日就职典礼当天，这场由政治引发的焦虑、压力、混乱或市场波动的美元风暴才能缓解。”

BTC price trendline eyed for downside supportAs Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants still see all-time highs coming for Bitcoin.

BTC 价格趋势线寻求下行支撑随着 Cointelegraph 继续报道，市场参与者仍然认为比特币将创下历史新高。

Some forecasts predict a major price discovery event in the coming months, including a trip to $100,000 in early 2025.

一些预测预测未来几个月将出现重大价格发现事件，包括 2025 年初升至 10 万美元。

Last week, BTC/USD narrowly missed matching its current record set in March.

上周，比特币/美元以微弱的差距追平了 3 月份创下的当前纪录。

“If things start breaking down, don’t rule out the possibility of a trip to the 50-Week Moving Average and potentially the Macro Trend Line,” Material Indicators warned in its post.

Material Indicators 在其帖子中警告称：“如果情况开始崩溃，不排除触及 50 周移动平均线和宏观趋势线的可能性。”

The 50-week SMA currently sits at $59,200, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

根据 Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据，50 周移动平均线目前为 59,200 美元。

BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50SMA. Source: TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries a risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.

BTC/USD 1 周图表为 50SMA。来源：TradingView本文不包含投资建议或推荐。每一项投资和交易行为都存在风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。