比特币正在接近制成或破坏时刻。这次，所有人的目光都在一个鲜为人知的指标上

该指标以我们仅在重大逆转之前看到的方式点亮。在2019年和2022年末，类似的信号在市场发生巨大变化之前也闪烁。

Bitcoin is once again approaching a make-or-break moment—and this time, all eyes are on a little-known metric with a surprisingly accurate track record.

比特币再次接近一个或破坏的时刻 - 这次，所有人的眼睛都以鲜为人知的指标，并具有令人惊讶的准确记录。

Known as the long-term realized cap impulse, this indicator is lighting up in a way we’ve only seen before major reversals. In 2019 and late 2022, similar signals flashed just before the market shifted dramatically. Now, in April 2025, it’s doing it again.

该指标被称为长期实现的上限冲动，以我们仅在重大逆转之前看到的方式点亮。在2019年和2022年末，类似的信号在市场发生巨大变化之前也闪烁。现在，在2025年4月，它再次这样做。

So… what does that mean for Bitcoin?

那么……这对比特币意味着什么？

According to analysts, the entire market may hinge on whether long-term holders stay strong or begin to fold.

根据分析师的说法，整个市场可能会取决于长期持有人是否保持强大或开始折叠。

While price charts and headlines catch the most attention, it’s the realized cap—specifically its long-term impulse—that may hold the real story. This metric doesn’t just track how many coins are moving; it measures the average price at which each coin last changed hands. In other words, it gauges the conviction of holders who’ve been in it for the long haul.

尽管价格图表和头条新闻吸引了最大的关注，但它可能拥有真实的故事，这是实现的帽子，特别是其长期冲动。该指标不仅跟踪了多少硬币正在移动。它衡量每枚硬币最后易手的平均价格。换句话说，它衡量了长期以来一直在其中的持有人的信念。

Right now, that metric is hovering at a point that has, in the past, led to either a sharp recovery or a steep fall. It’s a crossroads moment.

目前，该度量在过去徘徊在过去导致急剧恢复或陡峭的跌落的时刻。这是一个十字路口的时刻。

And unlike short-term traders, long-term holders don’t move easily. So when they do start to shift, the market follows.

与短期交易者不同，长期持有人不容易移动。因此，当它们确实开始转移时，市场就会随之而来。

Here’s the big picture: if Bitcoin can hold its current support zone, it might signal that long-term holders are doubling down—accumulating more, reinforcing their positions, and potentially triggering a fresh wave of bullish momentum.

这是全局：如果比特币可以保持其当前的支撑区，则可能表明长期持有人正在加倍 - 累积更多，增加了其位置，并有可能触发新的看涨势头。

But if it breaks down?

但是，如果它崩溃了？

It could mean that even the most resilient investors are losing faith. And if they start selling, the fallout could be significant. These are the folks who usually absorb market pressure, not add to it.

这可能意味着即使是最有弹性的投资者也失去了信仰。而且，如果他们开始销售，那么影响可能会很大。这些人通常会吸收市场压力，而不会增加。

A shift from them wouldn’t just be psychological—it could drive real downward movement.

与他们的转变不仅会成为心理，而且可能会推动真正的下降运动。

The Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 45—neutral, but leaning slightly toward fear. That might not sound dramatic, but here’s the twist: sentiment usually lags behind reality. When metrics start flashing and people are still undecided, that’s often when the real moves begin.

恐惧和贪婪指数目前为45岁 - 中立，但略微倾向于恐惧。这听起来可能不会引人注目，但这是扭曲：情感通常落后于现实。当指标开始闪烁并且人们仍然不确定时，这通常是真正的动作开始的时候。

So while the market may seem quiet now, that silence could be deceptive.

因此，尽管现在市场看起来似乎很安静，但这种沉默可能具有欺骗性。

It’s not complacency—it’s waiting. The calm before something breaks, one way or the other.

这不是自满 - 正在等待。在某种程度上，一种或另一种方式破裂之前的平静。

This isn’t just another dip or bounce—it’s a crucial test of conviction. Long-term holders are at the wheel, and the choices they make in the coming days could define the direction of the market.

这不仅是另一种倾向或反弹，这是对信念的关键考验。长期持有人在方向盘上，他们在未来几天做出的选择可以定义市场的方向。

Whether we’re on the verge of a renewed rally or facing a painful correction, one thing is clear: this is a pivotal point in Bitcoin’s story.

无论我们是在重新集会的边缘还是面临痛苦的纠正，都很明显：这是比特币故事中的关键点。

Stay alert. Stay informed. And most of all, stay ready.

保持警惕。保持知情。最重要的是，请保持准备。