比特幣正在接近製成或破壞時刻。這次，所有人的目光都在一個鮮為人知的指標上

該指標以我們僅在重大逆轉之前看到的方式點亮。在2019年和2022年末，類似的信號在市場發生巨大變化之前也閃爍。

Bitcoin is once again approaching a make-or-break moment—and this time, all eyes are on a little-known metric with a surprisingly accurate track record.

比特幣再次接近一個或破壞的時刻 - 這次，所有人的眼睛都以鮮為人知的指標，並具有令人驚訝的準確記錄。

Known as the long-term realized cap impulse, this indicator is lighting up in a way we’ve only seen before major reversals. In 2019 and late 2022, similar signals flashed just before the market shifted dramatically. Now, in April 2025, it’s doing it again.

該指標被稱為長期實現的上限衝動，以我們僅在重大逆轉之前看到的方式點亮。在2019年和2022年末，類似的信號在市場發生巨大變化之前也閃爍。現在，在2025年4月，它再次這樣做。

So… what does that mean for Bitcoin?

那麼……這對比特幣意味著什麼？

According to analysts, the entire market may hinge on whether long-term holders stay strong or begin to fold.

根據分析師的說法，整個市場可能會取決於長期持有人是否保持強大或開始折疊。

While price charts and headlines catch the most attention, it’s the realized cap—specifically its long-term impulse—that may hold the real story. This metric doesn’t just track how many coins are moving; it measures the average price at which each coin last changed hands. In other words, it gauges the conviction of holders who’ve been in it for the long haul.

儘管價格圖表和頭條新聞吸引了最大的關注，但它可能擁有真實的故事，這是實現的帽子，特別是其長期衝動。該指標不僅跟踪了多少硬幣正在移動。它衡量每枚硬幣最後易手的平均價格。換句話說，它衡量了長期以來一直在其中的持有人的信念。

Right now, that metric is hovering at a point that has, in the past, led to either a sharp recovery or a steep fall. It’s a crossroads moment.

目前，該度量在過去徘徊在過去導致急劇恢復或陡峭的跌落的時刻。這是一個十字路口的時刻。

And unlike short-term traders, long-term holders don’t move easily. So when they do start to shift, the market follows.

與短期交易者不同，長期持有人不容易移動。因此，當它們確實開始轉移時，市場就會隨之而來。

Here’s the big picture: if Bitcoin can hold its current support zone, it might signal that long-term holders are doubling down—accumulating more, reinforcing their positions, and potentially triggering a fresh wave of bullish momentum.

這是全局：如果比特幣可以保持其當前的支撐區，則可能表明長期持有人正在加倍 - 累積更多，增加了其位置，並有可能觸發新的看漲勢頭。

But if it breaks down?

但是，如果它崩潰了？

It could mean that even the most resilient investors are losing faith. And if they start selling, the fallout could be significant. These are the folks who usually absorb market pressure, not add to it.

這可能意味著即使是最有彈性的投資者也失去了信心。而且，如果他們開始銷售，那麼影響可能會很大。這些人通常會吸收市場壓力，而不會增加。

A shift from them wouldn’t just be psychological—it could drive real downward movement.

與他們的轉變不僅會成為心理，而且可能會推動真正的下降運動。

The Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 45—neutral, but leaning slightly toward fear. That might not sound dramatic, but here’s the twist: sentiment usually lags behind reality. When metrics start flashing and people are still undecided, that’s often when the real moves begin.

恐懼和貪婪指數目前為45歲 - 中立，但略微傾向於恐懼。這聽起來可能不會引人注目，但這是扭曲：情感通常落後於現實。當指標開始閃爍並且人們仍然不確定時，這通常是真正的動作開始的時候。

So while the market may seem quiet now, that silence could be deceptive.

因此，儘管現在市場看起來似乎很安靜，但這種沉默可能具有欺騙性。

It’s not complacency—it’s waiting. The calm before something breaks, one way or the other.

這不是自滿 - 正在等待。在某種程度上，一種或另一種方式破裂之前的平靜。

This isn’t just another dip or bounce—it’s a crucial test of conviction. Long-term holders are at the wheel, and the choices they make in the coming days could define the direction of the market.

這不僅是另一種傾向或反彈，這是對信念的關鍵考驗。長期持有人在方向盤上，他們在未來幾天做出的選擇可以定義市場的方向。

Whether we’re on the verge of a renewed rally or facing a painful correction, one thing is clear: this is a pivotal point in Bitcoin’s story.

無論我們是在重新集會的邊緣還是面臨痛苦的糾正，都很明顯：這是比特幣故事中的關鍵點。

Stay alert. Stay informed. And most of all, stay ready.

保持警惕。保持知情。最重要的是，請保持準備。