亿万富翁拥抱比特币，引发范式转变，影响深远

随着加密货币市场的发展，越来越多的亿万富翁，包括迈克尔·塞勒和拉里·芬克，正在积极投资比特币。这种需求的涌入造成了“比特币供应紧张”，有限的供应满足了不断增长的需求。随着亿万富翁将其投资组合的很大一部分分配给比特币，预计该资产的价值将大幅上涨，这可能是由大量新投资推动的。然而，对冲基金经理使用比特币进行宏观押注的潜力引发了人们对其作为对冲通胀和经济不确定性的作用的担忧，凸显了在当前市场动态中需要保持谨慎的必要性。

Billionaires' Embrace of Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift and Its Implications

亿万富翁拥抱比特币：范式转变及其影响

In the annals of the financial landscape, the past two years have witnessed a seismic shift in the attitude of billionaires towards Bitcoin (BTC). Once relegated to the fringes of mainstream investment, Bitcoin has now garnered significant attention from the world's ultra-wealthy, fueled by a confluence of factors including a sustained bull market and the emergence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

在金融史上，过去两年见证了亿万富翁对比特币（BTC）态度的巨大转变。比特币一度被置于主流投资的边缘，但在持续的牛市和现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的出现等因素的推动下，比特币现在已经吸引了世界超级富豪的极大关注。

Michael Saylor: A Bitcoin Evangelist Among Billionaires

Michael Saylor：亿万富翁中的比特币布道者

At the forefront of this surge of interest is Michael Saylor, the visionary executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy. Saylor's unwavering belief in Bitcoin's potential led him to initiate aggressive purchases in mid-2020, a strategy he has since maintained with unwavering conviction. MicroStrategy's recent convertible note offering of $600 million, earmarked exclusively for Bitcoin acquisition, further underscores Saylor's commitment to the cryptocurrency. This latest move follows an earlier $800 million offering with a similar purpose, resulting in MicroStrategy's current holdings of 214,246 Bitcoins, representing over 1% of the total supply in circulation.

MicroStrategy 富有远见的执行主席兼联合创始人 Michael Saylor 站在了这股兴趣浪潮的最前沿。 Saylor 对比特币潜力的坚定信念促使他在 2020 年中期开始积极购买比特币，此后他一直坚定不移地维持这一策略。 MicroStrategy 最近发行了 6 亿美元的可转换票据，专门用于收购比特币，进一步凸显了 Saylor 对加密货币的承诺。在此之前，MicroStrategy 曾出于类似目的发行了 8 亿美元的比特币，目前持有 214,246 枚比特币，占流通总量的 1% 以上。

BlackRock: A Titan Enters the Bitcoin Arena

贝莱德：泰坦进入比特币竞技场

Another influential figure in the current Bitcoin rally is Larry Fink, the chief executive officer of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. Fink's increasingly bullish stance on Bitcoin has been evident in several recent initiatives. In August 2022, BlackRock partnered with Coinbase Global to establish a dedicated crypto trading platform. Notably, BlackRock became the first major investment firm to file an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, which was subsequently approved. Within three months of its launch, BlackRock's ETF has amassed an impressive 200,000 Bitcoins.

当前比特币上涨的另一位有影响力的人物是全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)。芬克对比特币日益看涨的立场在最近的几项举措中显而易见。 2022 年 8 月，贝莱德与 Coinbase Global 合作建立了专门的加密货币交易平台。值得注意的是，贝莱德成为第一家提交现货比特币 ETF 申请的主要投资公司，该申请随后获得批准。在推出后的三个月内，贝莱德的 ETF 已积累了令人印象深刻的 200,000 个比特币。

A Bitcoin Supply Squeeze: Limited Availability, Soaring Demand

比特币供应紧张：供应有限，需求飙升

The influx of Bitcoin purchases by the aforementioned spot ETFs has created a phenomenon known as a "Bitcoin supply squeeze." Essentially, the available supply of Bitcoin is insufficient to meet the surging demand. According to Saylor's assessment, demand now exceeds supply by a factor of ten. This imbalance is expected to continue driving the price of Bitcoin upwards, as long as the supply remains constrained.

上述现货 ETF 大量购买比特币，造成了一种被称为“比特币供应紧缩”的现象。从本质上讲，比特币的可用供应不足以满足不断增长的需求。根据塞勒的评估，目前需求超过供应十倍。只要供应仍然受到限制，这种不平衡预计将继续推动比特币价格上涨。

Billionaires' Bitcoin Allocations: A Growing Trend

亿万富翁的比特币配置：不断增长的趋势

Beyond the high-profile individuals mentioned above, numerous other billionaires have expressed interest in Bitcoin and are actively seeking ways to increase their exposure. In recent months alone, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, the Emir of Qatar (possibly acting on behalf of his country's sovereign wealth fund), and tech magnate Jeff Bezos have been linked to Bitcoin purchases.

除了上述知名人士之外，许多其他亿万富翁也表达了对比特币的兴趣，并正在积极寻求增加其曝光度的方法。仅最近几个月，墨西哥亿万富翁里卡多·萨利纳斯、卡塔尔埃米尔（可能代表该国主权财富基金行事）和科技巨头杰夫·贝索斯就与购买比特币有关。

Bezos' potential involvement is particularly intriguing. In February 2023, he sold Amazon shares worth $8.5 billion, prompting speculation within the crypto community that he may be preparing for a substantial Bitcoin investment, especially given his reported meeting with Michael Saylor.

贝索斯的潜在参与尤其令人感兴趣。 2023 年 2 月，他出售了价值 85 亿美元的亚马逊股票，这引发了加密货币社区的猜测，认为他可能正在准备进行大量比特币投资，特别是考虑到他与 Michael Saylor 的会面。

Ark Invest's Optimal Allocation: A Target of 20%

方舟投资最优配置：目标20%

The growing acceptance of Bitcoin among billionaires is further corroborated by research from Ark Invest. The firm's analysis suggests that the optimal allocation for Bitcoin has surged to nearly 20% in 2023. If the world's billionaires were to collectively allocate 20% of their investable assets to Bitcoin, it would unleash a flood of new capital into the cryptocurrency, potentially driving its price to unprecedented heights.

Ark Invest 的研究进一步证实了亿万富翁对比特币的接受度不断提高。该公司的分析表明，到 2023 年，比特币的最佳配置已飙升至近 20%。如果世界上的亿万富翁将其可投资资产的 20% 集体分配给比特币，则将释放大量新资本进入加密货币，从而可能推动其价格达到前所未有的高度。

Hedge Fund Managers: Bitcoin as a Macroeconomic Hedge

对冲基金经理：比特币作为宏观经济对冲工具

Hedge fund managers are also exploring ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin, but their motivations differ from those of retail investors. For them, Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, for example, has publicly stated that Bitcoin could mitigate geopolitical risks.

对冲基金经理也在探索获得比特币投资的方法，但他们的动机与散户投资者不同。对他们来说，比特币主要被视为对冲通胀和经济不确定性的工具。例如，亿万富翁保罗·都铎·琼斯曾公开表示，比特币可以减轻地缘政治风险。

Bitcoin's Potential Role in Global Economic Turmoil

比特币在全球经济动荡中的潜在作用

However, there is also a potential downside to the increasing involvement of hedge fund managers in Bitcoin. If they collectively decide to use Bitcoin as a vehicle for macro bets on the global economy, the consequences could be significant. For instance, a loss of faith in the U.S. economy due to unsustainable debt levels and rampant inflation could lead to a sell-off of dollar-denominated assets and a simultaneous surge in Bitcoin purchases.

然而，对冲基金经理越来越多地参与比特币也存在潜在的负面影响。如果他们集体决定使用比特币作为对全球经济进行宏观押注的工具，后果可能会很严重。例如，由于不可持续的债务水平和猖獗的通货膨胀而对美国经济失去信心，可能会导致美元计价资产的抛售和比特币购买量的同时激增。

In a scenario proposed by billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the price of Bitcoin could "go to infinity" as the U.S. economy collapses. This would lead to a vicious cycle of rising Bitcoin prices, increased energy consumption for mining, higher energy prices, further inflation, and a growing number of investors betting against the U.S. dollar.

根据亿万富翁对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）提出的设想，随着美国经济崩溃，比特币的价格可能“走向无限”。这将导致比特币价格上涨、采矿能源消耗增加、能源价格上涨、通货膨胀进一步加剧以及越来越多的投资者做空美元的恶性循环。

A Double-Edged Sword: Bitcoin's Potential Upside and Downside

双刃剑：比特币的潜在上行和下行

While the prospect of Bitcoin soaring in value is alluring, it is important to recognize the potential risks associated with such a scenario. While Bitcoin may become more valuable, other assets could depreciate significantly or even become worthless.

虽然比特币价值飙升的前景很诱人，但重要的是要认识到与这种情况相关的潜在风险。虽然比特币可能会变得更有价值，但其他资产可能会大幅贬值，甚至变得一文不值。

Alternatively, hedge fund managers could choose to bet against Bitcoin, potentially creating a massive speculative bubble that could burst, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price.

或者，对冲基金经理可以选择做空比特币，这可能会造成巨大的投机泡沫，并可能破裂，导致比特币价格急剧下跌。

A Bullish Outlook: Bitcoin's Long-Term Potential

看涨前景：比特币的长期潜力

Despite the potential risks, I remain bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The increasing adoption by billionaires, coupled with the limited supply, suggests that the cryptocurrency is poised for significant price appreciation. While the journey may not be without its challenges, the presence of such influential investors is a strong indicator of Bitcoin's growing legitimacy and its potential to revolutionize the financial landscape.

尽管存在潜在风险，但我仍然看好比特币的长期前景。亿万富翁越来越多地采用加密货币，加上供应有限，表明加密货币的价格有望大幅升值。尽管这一过程可能并非没有挑战，但如此有影响力的投资者的存在有力地表明了比特币日益增长的合法性及其彻底改变金融格局的潜力。