亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）对全球经济发出了明显的警告

亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）对全球经济发出了明显的警告。他在最新评论中辩称，仅关注美国关税会错过较大的关税

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the global economy, arguing that the focus on U.S. tariffs misses the larger, underlying structural problems.

亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）对全球经济发出了明显的警告，认为对美国关税的关注会错过更大的根本结构问题。

In his latest commentary, Dalio identified rising debt, internal U.S. division, and global power shifts as key signs that the current world order is under significant pressure.

达利奥（Dalio）在最新的评论中确定了债务上升，美国内部部门和全球权力转移是当前世界秩序处于巨大压力的关键迹象。

Dalio: Tariffs Are a Symptom, Not the Disease

达利奥：关税是一种症状，而不是疾病

The investor cautioned against fixating on tariffs as the root cause of market volatility. He views them not just as policy tools but also as signals of more profound economic stress.

投资者警告不要将关税作为市场波动的根本原因。他不仅将它们视为政策工具，而且是更深刻的经济压力的信号。

The long-standing trade imbalances, particularly between the U.S. (running persistent deficits funded by borrowing) and export-reliant nations like China (which helps finance U.S. debt), are becoming unsustainable, Dalio argued.

达利奥认为，长期存在的贸易不平衡，尤其是在美国之间（借贷资助的持续赤字）和诸如中国（有助于为美国债务融资）等出口式的国家变得不可持续。

As geopolitical tensions rise, nations increasingly prioritize self-interest over global cooperation. “These actions reflect deeper fractures,” Dalio explained. “They’re not standalone events.”

随着地缘政治紧张局势的增加，国家越来越优先考虑自身利益而不是全球合作。达利奥解释说：“这些动作反映了更深的裂缝。” “他们不是独立的事件。”

Underlying U.S. Economic and Political Weaknesses

美国经济和政治弱点的基本

Dalio also expressed concern about the hollowing out of America’s industrial base. Decades of globalization have shifted manufacturing abroad, leaving the U.S. reliant on imports.

达利奥（Dalio）还对美国工业基础的空洞表示关注。数十年的全球化已经改变了国外的制造业，使美国依赖进口。

In response, recent tariff policies aim to restore domestic production, but Dalio believes they reveal broader structural issues.

作为回应，最近的关税政策旨在恢复国内生产，但达利奥认为它们揭示了更广泛的结构性问题。

Related: Tariffs Hit Crypto via Sentiment; Core BTC Holders Won’t Sell – Analyst

相关：关税通过情感击中加密货币；核心BTC持有人不会出售 - 分析师

He also highlighted the growing gap between U.S. government spending and revenue. The country’s economic foundation is under strain with rising national debt and limited fiscal flexibility. “Debt is becoming harder to manage,” he said. “We’re nearing the limits of what monetary policy can fix.”

他还强调了美国政府支出和收入之间的差距日益增长。该国的经济基础正在遭受压力，国家债务上升和财政灵活性有限。他说：“债务变得越来越难以管理。” “我们正在接近货币政策可以解决的局限性。”

Rising Political Division Inside the U.S.

美国境内的政治分裂

Compounding economic strains, Dalio described internal political polarization and widening social gaps (income, education, opportunity) within the U.S.

达利奥（Dalio

These divisions, he said, are making it difficult for leaders to reach a consensus on major issues, including fiscal policy, trade, and national security.

他说，这些分裂使领导人难以就包括财政政策，贸易和国家安全在内的重大问题达成共识。

Beyond the U.S., Dalio warned that the world is entering a new phase of geopolitical competition. The long-standing U.S.-led global order is shifting toward one defined by rivalries, particularly between the U.S. and China.

达利奥（Dalio）在美国之外，警告说，世界正在进入地缘政治竞争的新阶段。长期以来，以美国为主导的全球秩序正在转向由竞争所定义的，尤其是在美国之间的竞争。

Trade disputes, military build-ups, and technology races are replacing cooperation with confrontation. He believes this transition could reshape global alliances, markets, and stability.

贸易纠纷，军事积累和技术种族正在取代与对抗的合作。他认为，这种过渡可以重塑全球联盟，市场和稳定。

Ultimately, Dalio encouraged policymakers and investors to study past economic and political cycles for clues about the future.

最终，达利奥（Dalio）鼓励决策者和投资者研究过去的经济和政治周期，以了解未来的线索。

Related: Engineered Recession Response? Theory Swirls as Tariffs Send Markets Reeling

相关：工程衰退的回应？当关税发送市场时，理论旋转

Bitcoin’s Haven Role Debated in Shifting Order

比特币的避风港角色在变化顺序中辩论

Within this volatile macro landscape, Bitcoin’s role as a potential haven is being debated, especially as it fluctuated during the market crash but rebounded after a dip.

在这种波动的宏观景观中，比特币作为潜在避风港的作用正在辩论，尤其是在市场崩溃期间波动，但在下降后反弹。

While Bitcoin has shown volatility alongside stocks, some argue it could still become more attractive as a store of value during uncertain times, similar to gold.

尽管比特币与股票一起表现出波动性，但有人认为，它在不确定的时代（类似于黄金）的价值仍然可能变得更具吸引力。

Previous economic downturns have significantly increased Bitcoin adoption. During the 2020 COVID market crash, Bitcoin initially followed the downward trend of stocks but later surged to new all-time highs.

以前的经济低迷已经大大增加了比特币的采用。在2020年的Covid市场崩溃中，比特币最初遵循股票的下降趋势，但后来又升至新的历史新高。

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