億萬富翁投資者雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）對全球經濟發出了明顯的警告

億萬富翁投資者雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）對全球經濟發出了明顯的警告。他在最新評論中辯稱，僅關注美國關稅會錯過較大的關稅

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the global economy, arguing that the focus on U.S. tariffs misses the larger, underlying structural problems.

億萬富翁投資者雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）對全球經濟發出了明顯的警告，認為對美國關稅的關注會錯過更大的根本結構問題。

In his latest commentary, Dalio identified rising debt, internal U.S. division, and global power shifts as key signs that the current world order is under significant pressure.

達利奧（Dalio）在最新的評論中確定了債務上升，美國內部部門和全球權力轉移是當前世界秩序處於巨大壓力的關鍵跡象。

Dalio: Tariffs Are a Symptom, Not the Disease

達利奧：關稅是一種症狀，而不是疾病

The investor cautioned against fixating on tariffs as the root cause of market volatility. He views them not just as policy tools but also as signals of more profound economic stress.

投資者警告不要將關稅作為市場波動的根本原因。他不僅將它們視為政策工具，而且是更深刻的經濟壓力的信號。

The long-standing trade imbalances, particularly between the U.S. (running persistent deficits funded by borrowing) and export-reliant nations like China (which helps finance U.S. debt), are becoming unsustainable, Dalio argued.

達利奧認為，長期存在的貿易不平衡，尤其是在美國之間（借貸資助的持續赤字）和諸如中國（有助於為美國債務融資）等出口式的國家變得不可持續。

As geopolitical tensions rise, nations increasingly prioritize self-interest over global cooperation. “These actions reflect deeper fractures,” Dalio explained. “They’re not standalone events.”

隨著地緣政治緊張局勢的增加，國家越來越優先考慮自身利益而不是全球合作。達利奧解釋說：“這些動作反映了更深的裂縫。” “他們不是獨立的事件。”

Underlying U.S. Economic and Political Weaknesses

美國經濟和政治弱點的基本

Dalio also expressed concern about the hollowing out of America’s industrial base. Decades of globalization have shifted manufacturing abroad, leaving the U.S. reliant on imports.

達利奧（Dalio）還對美國工業基礎的空洞表示關注。數十年的全球化已經改變了國外的製造業，使美國依賴進口。

In response, recent tariff policies aim to restore domestic production, but Dalio believes they reveal broader structural issues.

作為回應，最近的關稅政策旨在恢復國內生產，但達利奧認為它們揭示了更廣泛的結構性問題。

Related: Tariffs Hit Crypto via Sentiment; Core BTC Holders Won’t Sell – Analyst

相關：關稅通過情感擊中加密貨幣；核心BTC持有人不會出售 - 分析師

He also highlighted the growing gap between U.S. government spending and revenue. The country’s economic foundation is under strain with rising national debt and limited fiscal flexibility. “Debt is becoming harder to manage,” he said. “We’re nearing the limits of what monetary policy can fix.”

他還強調了美國政府支出和收入之間的差距日益增長。該國的經濟基礎正在遭受壓力，國家債務上升和財政靈活性有限。他說：“債務變得越來越難以管理。” “我們正在接近貨幣政策可以解決的局限性。”

Rising Political Division Inside the U.S.

美國境內的政治分裂

Compounding economic strains, Dalio described internal political polarization and widening social gaps (income, education, opportunity) within the U.S.

達利奧（Dalio

These divisions, he said, are making it difficult for leaders to reach a consensus on major issues, including fiscal policy, trade, and national security.

他說，這些分裂使領導人難以就包括財政政策，貿易和國家安全在內的重大問題達成共識。

Beyond the U.S., Dalio warned that the world is entering a new phase of geopolitical competition. The long-standing U.S.-led global order is shifting toward one defined by rivalries, particularly between the U.S. and China.

達利奧（Dalio）在美國之外，警告說，世界正在進入地緣政治競爭的新階段。長期以來，以美國為主導的全球秩序正在轉向由競爭所定義的，尤其是在美國之間的競爭。

Trade disputes, military build-ups, and technology races are replacing cooperation with confrontation. He believes this transition could reshape global alliances, markets, and stability.

貿易糾紛，軍事積累和技術種族正在取代與對抗的合作。他認為，這種過渡可以重塑全球聯盟，市場和穩定。

Ultimately, Dalio encouraged policymakers and investors to study past economic and political cycles for clues about the future.

最終，達利奧（Dalio）鼓勵決策者和投資者研究過去的經濟和政治週期，以了解未來的線索。

Related: Engineered Recession Response? Theory Swirls as Tariffs Send Markets Reeling

相關：工程衰退的回應？當關稅發送市場時，理論旋轉

Bitcoin’s Haven Role Debated in Shifting Order

比特幣的避風港角色在變化順序中辯論

Within this volatile macro landscape, Bitcoin’s role as a potential haven is being debated, especially as it fluctuated during the market crash but rebounded after a dip.

在這種波動的宏觀景觀中，比特幣作為潛在避風港的作用正在辯論，尤其是在市場崩潰期間波動，但在下降後反彈。

While Bitcoin has shown volatility alongside stocks, some argue it could still become more attractive as a store of value during uncertain times, similar to gold.

儘管比特幣與股票一起表現出波動性，但有人認為，它在不確定的時代（類似於黃金）的價值仍然可能變得更具吸引力。

Previous economic downturns have significantly increased Bitcoin adoption. During the 2020 COVID market crash, Bitcoin initially followed the downward trend of stocks but later surged to new all-time highs.

以前的經濟低迷已經大大增加了比特幣的採用。在2020年的Covid市場崩潰中，比特幣最初遵循股票的下降趨勢，但後來又升至新的歷史新高。

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