随着 2025 年的临近，国家比特币储备基金可能在市场中发挥关键作用

随着比特币继续接近 10 万美元的水平，人们对比特币和其他加密资产的讨论和兴趣持续增加。

In recent months, there has been increasing chatter about the possibility of the U.S. government or state governments establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve. While this development would undoubtedly have a major impact on the bitcoin market, let's take a closer look at how this could play out and why it matters.

近几个月来，关于美国政府或州政府建立比特币战略储备的可能性的讨论越来越多。虽然这一发展无疑会对比特币市场产生重大影响，但让我们仔细看看它会如何发挥作用以及为什么它很重要。

As bitcoin continues to climb towards the $100,000 level, institutional interest in the cryptocurrency is at an all-time high. This is evident in the range of financial institutions, from Blackrock to Microstrategy, announcing major crypto purchases or activity. For example, Blackrock is set to launch spot ETF options, while Microstrategy is planning to use proceeds from a share sale to purchase $4 billion of bitcoin.

随着比特币继续攀升至 10 万美元的水平，机构对加密货币的兴趣空前高涨。从 Blackrock 到 Microstrategy 等众多金融机构都宣布了重大的加密货币购买或活动，这一点很明显。例如，Blackrock 将推出现货 ETF 期权，而 Microstrategy 则计划利用股票出售收益购买 40 亿美元的比特币。

However, beyond these institutional purchases, another trend that could have a significant impact on the bitcoin market is the possibility of a state-based bitcoin reserve fund. Here's how this could play out:

然而，除了这些机构购买之外，另一个可能对比特币市场产生重大影响的趋势是建立基于国家的比特币储备基金的可能性。其结果如下：

* State governments could lead on crypto policy: While the focus is often on the potential for federal-level crypto initiatives, such as a strategic bitcoin reserve, the reality is that states could play a leading role in this area. This is due to the smaller size and more targeted nature of state economies and markets, which could allow for faster and more efficient implementation of pro-crypto policies. For example, Wyoming is already working on mntin and issuing the first state-backed stable token, known as WYST.

* 州政府可以主导加密货币政策：虽然焦点通常集中在联邦级加密货币举措的潜力上，例如战略比特币储备，但现实是各州可以在这一领域发挥主导作用。这是由于国家经济和市场规模较小且更具针对性，这可以让支持加密货币的政策更快、更有效地实施。例如，怀俄明州已经在研究 mntin 并发行第一个由国家支持的稳定代币，称为 WYST。

* Pressure at the federal level: The crypto industry spent an estimated $200 million on the recent election cycle, with over 200 members of Congress receiving funding and support from these lobbyists. This is likely to ensure a pro-crypto Congress, which could pave the way for favorable legislation, such as those aimed at establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve. Additionally, President-Elect Trump has promised to support and foster innovation and growth in the United States, which could bode well for the crypto sector.

* 联邦层面的压力：加密货币行业在最近的选举周期中花费了估计 2 亿美元，超过 200 名国会议员从这些游说者那里获得了资金和支持。这可能会确保国会支持加密货币，从而为有利的立法铺平道路，例如旨在建立战略比特币储备的立法。此外，当选总统特朗普承诺支持和促进美国的创新和增长，这对加密货币行业来说可能是个好兆头。

* Lawmakers continue to push for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund to buy bitcoin: Throughout 2024, there were several discussions and proposals regarding the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund that would primarily invest in bitcoin. This concept gained traction among pro-crypto members of Congress and sparked interest in the financial market media, highlighting the growing institutional enthusiasm for crypto.

* 立法者继续推动美国主权财富基金购买比特币：整个 2024 年，关于建立主要投资比特币的美国主权财富基金进行了多次讨论和提议。这一概念受到了支持加密货币的国会议员的关注，并引发了金融市场媒体的兴趣，凸显了机构对加密货币日益增长的热情。

* Price appreciation solidifies non-currency status: Perhaps the most direct and tangible effect of positive momentum and conversations (at both the state and federal level) will be the positive impact on the price of bitcoin, and potentially other cryptoassets more broadly. In 2024 alone, the price of bitcoin has risen from approximately $43,000 at the beginning of January to the $100,000 level in November, reflecting both the increased buying powered by institutional acquisition as well as the positive sentiment in the space at large. If either the U.S. federal government or state governments begin purchasing bitcoin at any significant level, this will only serve to push the price higher.

* 价格升值巩固了非货币地位：也许积极势头和对话（在州和联邦层面）最直接和最明显的影响将是对比特币以及更广泛的其他潜在加密资产价格的积极影响。仅在 2024 年，比特币的价格就从 1 月初的约 43,000 美元上涨到 11 月的 100,000 美元水平，这既反映了机构收购推动的购买增加，也反映了整个领域的积极情绪。如果美国联邦政府或州政府开始大量购买比特币，这只会推高价格。

Overall, while the crypto market is still small compared to traditional financial markets, its rapid growth and increasing institutional interest are setting the stage for major developments in the coming years. Keep an eye on these trends as they unfold.

总体而言，虽然与传统金融市场相比，加密货币市场仍然很小，但其快速增长和不断增加的机构兴趣正在为未来几年的重大发展奠定基础。密切关注这些趋势的发展。