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基于加密货币的预测市场已为选举投入了近 10 亿美元。另外:您准备好进行 20 倍杠杆的选举投注了吗?
Nearly $1 billion has been staked on the U.S. presidential election at crypto-based prediction market Polymarket. But bettors largely shrugged off an apparent second assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend.
基于加密货币的预测市场 Polymarket 已为美国总统大选投注了近 10 亿美元。但投注者基本上对周末针对唐纳德·特朗普的第二次暗杀企图不以为然。
The U.S. Secret Service found a man hiding in the bushes with an assault rifle at Trump's golf course in Florida on Sunday while the former president was playing. The gunman, identified as 38-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh of Hawaii, didn’t fire a shot.
周日,美国特勤局在佛罗里达州特朗普的高尔夫球场发现一名男子拿着突击步枪躲在灌木丛中,而当时这位前总统正在打球。枪手被确认为 38 岁的夏威夷人瑞安·韦斯利·劳斯 (Ryan Wesley Routh),他没有开枪。
The incident occurred about two months after another gunman fired a shot that grazed Trump's ear at a campaign event in Nevada. That incident drove up the Republican's odds of winning the election at Polymarket.
该事件发生大约两个月前,另一名枪手在内华达州的一次竞选活动中开枪擦伤了特朗普的耳朵。这一事件提高了共和党在 Polymarket 选举中获胜的几率。
But on Monday morning New York time, Trump's odds were down slightly from Sunday, trailing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 49-50.
但纽约时间周一早上,特朗普的胜算比周日略有下降,以 49 比 50 落后于民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯。
The probabilities are based on how much traders are willing to pay for shares that pay out money if the predictions come true and become worthless if they don't. Bets on Polymarket are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and paid out in USDC, a dollar-linked token. Under a regulatory settlement, the platform blocks U.S. users, although some traders have used VPNs to get around the geofencing.
这些概率取决于交易者愿意支付多少价格来购买股票,如果预测成真,这些股票就会派发资金;如果预测成真,这些股票就会变得一文不值。 Polymarket 上的投注被编程到 Polygon 区块链上的智能合约中,并以与美元挂钩的代币 USDC 支付。根据一项监管和解协议,该平台会屏蔽美国用户,尽管一些交易者已经使用 VPN 来绕过地理围栏。
Bets on Harris Winning All 6 Swing States Only Give Her a 24% Chance
押注哈里斯赢得全部 6 个摇摆州仅给她 24% 的机会
As with any U.S. presidential election, a lot is riding on the swing states.
与任何美国总统选举一样,摇摆州的影响力很大。
Polymarket bettors are fairly convinced that neither candidate will win all of them: One contract asking if Harris will win all six only gives a 24% chance of that happening, while another asking if Trump will do the same is at 17%.
Polymarket 投注者相当确信,两位候选人都不会赢得全部六场比赛:一份询问哈里斯是否会赢得全部六场比赛的合同只给出了 24% 的可能性,而另一份询问特朗普是否会这样做的合同则给出了 17% 的可能性。
For the individual state contracts, currently Republicans lead in Arizona (61%), Georgia (59%), North Carolina (57%), and Pennsylvania (51%). In Nevada, the race is tied 50-50, while Democrats lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
在各州合同方面,目前共和党在亚利桑那州(61%)、佐治亚州(59%)、北卡罗来纳州(57%)和宾夕法尼亚州(51%)领先。在内华达州,双方打成50比50平,而民主党在密歇根州和威斯康星州领先。
Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to cast the race as closer than what professional pollsters are calling. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model from Sept. 11 gives Trump a strong chance to win the all-important electoral college at 61%, which, if won, dictates the rest of the election. (Silver is an advisor to Polymarket.)
与此同时,Polymarket 继续预测这场竞选的结果比专业民意调查机构所说的更加接近。内特·西尔弗 (Nate Silver) 9 月 11 日的《Silver Bulletin》模型为特朗普提供了以 61% 的得票率赢得至关重要的选举团的绝佳机会,如果获胜,这将决定剩下的选举。 (西尔弗是 Polymarket 的顾问。)
While all this is happening, U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi has frozen its long-sought election markets pending a court decision in an appeal brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A Kalshi contract on which party will win the House in November had volume of $20,000, while another about which party will win the Senate had volume of $45,000.
在这一切发生的同时,美国监管的预测市场 Kalshi 已经冻结了其长期寻求的选举市场,等待法院在商品期货交易委员会提起的上诉中作出裁决。一份关于哪一方将在 11 月赢得众议院的 Kalshi 合同的金额为 20,000 美元,而另一份关于哪一方将赢得参议院的合同的金额为 45,000 美元。
The freeze looks set to last at least three more days. Oral arguments in the appeal are scheduled for Thursday, according to a Monday court filing.
冻结看起来将至少持续三天。根据周一的法庭文件,上诉中的口头辩论定于周四进行。
Another CFTC-regulated exchange, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, has said it will soon list election markets. Unlike Polymarket, ForecastEx and Kalshi settle bets in fiat.
另一家受美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 监管的交易所,盈透证券 (Interactive Brokers) 旗下的 ForecastEx,已表示将很快上市选举市场。与 Polymarket 不同,ForecastEx 和 Kalshi 以法定货币结算赌注。
LogX Raises $4M to Bring 20X Leveraged Election Contracts to Crypto
LogX 筹集 400 万美元,将 20 倍杠杆选举合约引入加密货币
LogX, a perpetual futures crypto trading protocol, said it raised $4 million to expand into leveraged prediction markets.
永续期货加密交易协议 LogX 表示,它筹集了 400 万美元,用于进军杠杆预测市场。
The noncustodial "DEX-like" market, which is building what it called a DeFi superapp to onboard the next generation of retail users, said on its website that it will offer up to 20X leverage on contracts on outcomes such as whether Trump or Harris will win the election.
这个非托管的“类 DEX”市场正在构建所谓的 DeFi 超级应用程序,以吸引下一代散户用户,该市场在其网站上表示,它将根据特朗普或哈里斯是否会当选等结果,为合约提供高达 20 倍的杠杆。赢得选举。
This platform’s approach to prediction markets is similar to D8X, which launched leveraged prediction market trading in July, insofar that it relies on an oracle from Polymarket to scrape pricing data and put it into LogX for traders. However, D8X maxes out at 2X leverage.
该平台的预测市场方法与 D8X 类似,D8X 在 7 月推出了杠杆预测市场交易,依赖于 Polymarket 的预言机来抓取定价数据并将其放入 LogX 中供交易者使用。然而,D8X 的最大杠杆为 2 倍。
Akshit Bordia, LogX’s Founder, explained in an interview that once the pricing data is on the platform, his protocol's market makers will take opposite positions on Polymarket to generate liquidity.
LogX 的创始人 Akshit Bordia 在接受采访时解释说,一旦定价数据出现在平台上,其协议的做市商将在 Polymarket 上采取相反的立场以产生流动性。
Right now, Bordia says the maximum bet for Trump or Harris election contracts is $100,000.
博迪亚表示,目前特朗普或哈里斯选举合同的最大赌注是 10 万美元。
“What we're seeing now is the next iteration of prediction markets,” Bordia said in an interview with CoinDesk. “Many of these have grown significantly, gaining mass media attention. That's why it's become so exciting and much bigger than it was in the previous cycle."
“我们现在看到的是预测市场的下一个迭代,”博迪亚在接受 CoinDesk 采访时表示。 “其中许多增长显着,引起了大众媒体的关注。这就是为什么它变得如此令人兴奋,而且比上一个周期规模大得多。”
After the election, the plan is to launch markets on sports and crypto price movements, Bordia said.
博迪亚表示,选举后,计划推出体育和加密货币价格走势市场。
Hashed Emergent, Cumberland, DWF Ventures, and Orderly Network CEO Ryan Lee participated in the round.
Hashed Emergent、Cumberland、DWF Ventures 和 Orderly Network 首席执行官 Ryan Lee 参与了本轮融资。
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