这个比特币指标看起来“非常”像 2016 年，这就是为什么 3 月份不是 BTC 价格周期顶部的原因

加密货币分析师 CryptoCon 分享了对比特币价格趋势的见解，挑战了 2024 年 3 月标志着其周期顶峰的观点。

Crypto analyst CryptoCon shared his thoughts on Bitcoin’s price movements, arguing against the idea that March 2024 marked the peak of its cycle.

加密货币分析师 CryptoCon 分享了他对比特币价格走势的看法，反对 2024 年 3 月标志着其周期顶峰的观点。

According to his analysis, the event was a “power move” rather than the cycle top, suggesting that BTC still has room to grow.

根据他的分析，该事件是一次“权力波动”，而不是周期顶部，表明 BTC 仍有增长空间。

The technical indicators, specifically the Monthly Fisher Transform, support this outlook, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s market behavior in 2016.

技术指标，特别是每月费舍尔变换，支持了这一前景，并与 2016 年比特币的市场行为进行了比较。

March 2024’s ‘Power Move’ and Halving Cycles

2024 年 3 月的“权力转移”和减半周期

CryptoCon’s tweet introduces the concept of a “power move” within Bitcoin cycles, highlighting that these mid-cycle spikes are notable but not final. The chart by Crypto Con outlines past Bitcoin halving events, which typically occur every four years, decreasing the mining rewards and influencing the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory.

CryptoCon 的推文引入了比特币周期内“权力转移”的概念，强调这些周期中期的峰值是值得注意的，但不是最终的。 Crypto Con 的图表概述了过去的比特币减半事件，这些事件通常每四年发生一次，从而减少了挖矿奖励并影响了加密货币的价格轨迹。

March 2024 was not a #Bitcoin cycle top, it was what I like to call a "power move". All cycles have them, and they are completely different from the first and final cycle top which is still on the horizon.

2024 年 3 月并不是 #Bitcoin 周期的顶峰，而是我所说的“权力举动”。所有周期都有它们，并且它们与仍然在地平线上的第一个和最后一个周期顶部完全不同。

The Monthly Fisher Transform shows us that now is very much like 2016… pic.twitter.com/X2JuEB5ajA

每月费舍尔变换向我们展示了现在非常像 2016 年…… pic.twitter.com/X2JuEB5ajA

These halving cycles are represented by color-coded sine waves in CryptoCon’s analysis, marking each period between halvings. The analyst points out that while March 2024 saw a considerable price rise, it mirrors similar movements in 2016 and earlier cycles.

在 CryptoCon 的分析中，这些减半周期由颜色编码的正弦波表示，标记了减半之间的每个周期。该分析师指出，虽然 2024 年 3 月价格大幅上涨，但它反映了 2016 年及之前周期的类似走势。

These moments, dubbed “mid-cycle power moves,” occurred in June 2011, June 2016, and June 2019, and were followed by more substantial growth leading to the actual cycle peak.

这些被称为“周期中期动力变动”的时刻发生在 2011 年 6 月、2016 年 6 月和 2019 年 6 月，随后出现更大幅度的增长，导致实际的周期峰值。

Monthly Fisher Transform and 2025 Projections

每月 Fisher 变换和 2025 年预测

The Monthly Fisher Transform indicator plays a key role in CryptoCon’s outlook, helping to identify market reversals. This technical tool shows oscillating lines that track false crossovers, which can mislead investors about a market’s turning point.

每月费舍尔变换指标在 CryptoCon 的前景中发挥着关键作用，有助于识别市场逆转。该技术工具显示跟踪虚假交叉的振荡线，这可能会误导投资者关于市场转折点的信息。

According to CryptoCon, the market conditions in 2024 closely resemble those in 2016, when a mid-cycle power move occurred but did not mark the cycle’s final peak.

据 CryptoCon 称，2024 年的市场状况与 2016 年非常相似，当时出现了周期中期的电力变动，但并未标志着该周期的最终峰值。

Looking ahead, CryptoCon anticipates the first and final cycle top between October and December 2025. The chart projects this peak based on past cycle trends, indicating that Bitcoin’s highest price point in this cycle has yet to be reached.

展望未来，CryptoCon 预计 2025 年 10 月至 12 月之间将出现第一个也是最后一个周期顶部。该图表根据过去的周期趋势预测了该峰值，表明比特币在该周期中的最高价格点尚未达到。

Doge2014 raises 500K in days celebrating Dogecoin. Make potentially big profits and get in on exclusive airdrop!

Doge2014 在庆祝狗狗币的几天内筹集了 50 万美元。赚取潜在的巨额利润并获得独家空投！

Read also: SEI Price Explodes, But Will SEI Mirror SUI and Solana’s Runs?

另请阅读：SEI 价格爆炸，但 SEI 会效仿 SUI 和 Solana 的走势吗？

Optimistic Outlook for Bitcoin’s Bull Market

比特币牛市前景乐观

CryptoCon’s analysis aligns with the belief that March 2024 was not Bitcoin’s final high but a precursor to a more substantial bull market ahead. His comparison of current market conditions to 2016 strengthens this view, suggesting that the real bull run is still to come.

CryptoCon 的分析与这样的信念相一致：2024 年 3 月不是比特币的最终高点，而是未来更大规模牛市的前兆。他将当前市场状况与 2016 年进行的比较强化了这一观点，表明真正的牛市尚未到来。

While March 24 witnessed a “power move,” CryptoCon emphasizes that higher prices are expected before Bitcoin’s cycle top is reached, leaving room for further growth in the coming years.

虽然 3 月 24 日见证了“权力变动”，但 CryptoCon 强调，在比特币达到周期顶部之前，预计价格将会上涨，从而为未来几年的进一步增长留下空间。

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在 X (Twitter)、CoinMarketCap 和 Binance Square 上关注我们，了解更多每日加密货币更新。

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加入我们的免费 Telegram 群组即可接听我们未来的所有电话。