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基於加密貨幣的預測市場已為選舉投入了近 10 億美元。另外:您準備好進行 20 倍槓桿的選舉投注了嗎?
Nearly $1 billion has been staked on the U.S. presidential election at crypto-based prediction market Polymarket. But bettors largely shrugged off an apparent second assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend.
基於加密貨幣的預測市場 Polymarket 已為美國總統大選投注了近 10 億美元。但投注者基本上對週末針對唐納德·川普的第二次暗殺企圖不以為然。
The U.S. Secret Service found a man hiding in the bushes with an assault rifle at Trump's golf course in Florida on Sunday while the former president was playing. The gunman, identified as 38-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh of Hawaii, didn’t fire a shot.
週日,美國特勤局在佛羅裡達州川普的高爾夫球場發現一名男子拿著突擊步槍躲在灌木叢中,而當時這位前總統正在打球。槍手被確認為 38 歲的夏威夷人瑞安·韋斯利·勞斯 (Ryan Wesley Routh),他沒有開槍。
The incident occurred about two months after another gunman fired a shot that grazed Trump's ear at a campaign event in Nevada. That incident drove up the Republican's odds of winning the election at Polymarket.
這起事件發生大約兩個月前,另一名槍手在內華達州的一次競選活動中開槍擦傷了川普的耳朵。這一事件提高了共和黨在 Polymarket 選舉中獲勝的幾率。
But on Monday morning New York time, Trump's odds were down slightly from Sunday, trailing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 49-50.
但紐約時間週一早上,川普的勝算比周日略有下降,以 49 比 50 落後於民主黨候選人卡馬拉哈里斯。
The probabilities are based on how much traders are willing to pay for shares that pay out money if the predictions come true and become worthless if they don't. Bets on Polymarket are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and paid out in USDC, a dollar-linked token. Under a regulatory settlement, the platform blocks U.S. users, although some traders have used VPNs to get around the geofencing.
這些機率取決於交易者願意支付多少價格來購買股票,如果預測成真,這些股票就會派發資金;如果預測成真,這些股票就會變得一文不值。 Polymarket 上的投注被編程到 Polygon 區塊鏈上的智能合約中,並以與美元掛鉤的代幣 USDC 支付。根據一項監管和解協議,該平台會封鎖美國用戶,儘管一些交易者已經使用 VPN 來繞過地理圍欄。
Bets on Harris Winning All 6 Swing States Only Give Her a 24% Chance
押注哈里斯贏得全部 6 個搖擺州僅給她 24% 的機會
As with any U.S. presidential election, a lot is riding on the swing states.
與任何美國總統選舉一樣,搖擺州的影響力很大。
Polymarket bettors are fairly convinced that neither candidate will win all of them: One contract asking if Harris will win all six only gives a 24% chance of that happening, while another asking if Trump will do the same is at 17%.
Polymarket 投注者相當確信,兩位候選人都不會贏得全部六場比賽:一份詢問哈里斯是否會贏得全部六場比賽的合約只給出了24% 的可能性,而另一份詢問特朗普是否會這樣做的合約則給出了17% 的可能性。
For the individual state contracts, currently Republicans lead in Arizona (61%), Georgia (59%), North Carolina (57%), and Pennsylvania (51%). In Nevada, the race is tied 50-50, while Democrats lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
在各州合約方面,目前共和黨在亞利桑那州(61%)、喬治亞州(59%)、北卡羅來納州(57%)和賓州(51%)領先。在內華達州,雙方打成50比50平,民主黨在密西根州和威斯康辛州領先。
Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to cast the race as closer than what professional pollsters are calling. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model from Sept. 11 gives Trump a strong chance to win the all-important electoral college at 61%, which, if won, dictates the rest of the election. (Silver is an advisor to Polymarket.)
與此同時,Polymarket 繼續預測這場競選的結果比專業民調機構所說的更接近。內特·西爾弗(Nate Silver) 9 月11 日的《Silver Bulletin》模型為川普提供了以61% 的得票率贏得至關重要的選舉團的絕佳機會,如果獲勝,這將決定剩下的選舉。 (西爾弗是 Polymarket 的顧問。)
While all this is happening, U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi has frozen its long-sought election markets pending a court decision in an appeal brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A Kalshi contract on which party will win the House in November had volume of $20,000, while another about which party will win the Senate had volume of $45,000.
在這一切發生的同時,美國監管的預測市場 Kalshi 凍結了其長期尋求的選舉市場,等待法院在商品期貨交易委員會提起的上訴中作出裁決。一份關於哪一方將在 11 月贏得眾議院的 Kalshi 合約的金額為 20,000 美元,而另一份關於哪一方將贏得參議院的合約的金額為 45,000 美元。
The freeze looks set to last at least three more days. Oral arguments in the appeal are scheduled for Thursday, according to a Monday court filing.
凍結看起來將持續至少三天。根據週一的法庭文件,上訴中的口頭辯論定於週四進行。
Another CFTC-regulated exchange, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, has said it will soon list election markets. Unlike Polymarket, ForecastEx and Kalshi settle bets in fiat.
另一家受美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 監管的交易所,盈透證券 (Interactive Brokers) 旗下的 ForecastEx,已表示將很快上市選舉市場。與 Polymarket 不同,ForecastEx 和 Kalshi 以法定貨幣結算賭注。
LogX Raises $4M to Bring 20X Leveraged Election Contracts to Crypto
LogX 籌集 400 萬美元,將 20 倍槓桿選舉合約引入加密貨幣
LogX, a perpetual futures crypto trading protocol, said it raised $4 million to expand into leveraged prediction markets.
永續期貨加密交易協議 LogX 表示,它籌集了 400 萬美元,用於進軍槓桿預測市場。
The noncustodial "DEX-like" market, which is building what it called a DeFi superapp to onboard the next generation of retail users, said on its website that it will offer up to 20X leverage on contracts on outcomes such as whether Trump or Harris will win the election.
這個非託管的「類DEX」市場正在建立所謂的DeFi 超級應用程序,以吸引下一代散戶用戶,該市場在其網站上表示,它將根據川普或哈里斯是否會當選等結果,為合約提供高達20 倍的槓桿。
This platform’s approach to prediction markets is similar to D8X, which launched leveraged prediction market trading in July, insofar that it relies on an oracle from Polymarket to scrape pricing data and put it into LogX for traders. However, D8X maxes out at 2X leverage.
該平台的預測市場方法與 D8X 類似,D8X 在 7 月推出了槓桿預測市場交易,依賴 Polymarket 的預言機來抓取定價資料並將其放入 LogX 中供交易者使用。然而,D8X 的最大槓桿為 2 倍。
Akshit Bordia, LogX’s Founder, explained in an interview that once the pricing data is on the platform, his protocol's market makers will take opposite positions on Polymarket to generate liquidity.
LogX 的創辦人 Akshit Bordia 在接受採訪時解釋說,一旦定價資料出現在平台上,其協議的做市商將在 Polymarket 上採取相反的立場以產生流動性。
Right now, Bordia says the maximum bet for Trump or Harris election contracts is $100,000.
博迪亞表示,目前川普或哈里斯選舉合約的最大賭注是 10 萬美元。
“What we're seeing now is the next iteration of prediction markets,” Bordia said in an interview with CoinDesk. “Many of these have grown significantly, gaining mass media attention. That's why it's become so exciting and much bigger than it was in the previous cycle."
「我們現在看到的是預測市場的下一個迭代,」博迪亞在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時表示。 「其中許多成長顯著,引起了大眾媒體的關注。這就是為什麼它變得如此令人興奮,而且比上一個週期規模大得多。
After the election, the plan is to launch markets on sports and crypto price movements, Bordia said.
博迪亞表示,選舉後,計劃推出體育和加密貨幣價格走勢市場。
Hashed Emergent, Cumberland, DWF Ventures, and Orderly Network CEO Ryan Lee participated in the round.
Hashed Emergent、Cumberland、DWF Ventures 和 Orderly Network 執行長 Ryan Lee 參與了本輪融資。
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