阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 预测特朗普就职后市场将低迷——但这也不全是坏消息

亚瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 带着他的年终博文回归了这个话题——这真是太棒了。如果你有大约三十分钟的时间，这肯定会让你读起来很有趣（而且常常很幽默）。

Cryptocurrency market participants were buzzing with excitement in November when news of Donald Trump’s re-election swept across media channels.

11 月份，当唐纳德·特朗普连任的消息席卷各媒体渠道时，加密货币市场参与者兴奋不已。

The momentum reached its peak this week, when BTC breached US $107k (AU $172k) amid speculation of a US strategic reserve comprising Bitcoin.

本周，由于人们猜测美国战略储备包括比特币，比特币突破了 10.7 万美元（17.2 万澳元），这一势头达到了顶峰。

However, the euphoria was dashed that very week, as the US Feds announced they’d likely only target two rate cuts in 2025, instead of the three most believed were coming.

然而，就在那一周，乐观情绪破灭了，因为美联储宣布他们可能只会在 2025 年降息两次，而不是人们最相信的三次降息。

The market pullback based on a political promise going awry forms the basis of Hayes’ opinion. Basically, the outspoken founder of BitMEX praises Trump for being honest about the geopolitical landscape, in something he labels ‘Trump Truth’.

基于政治承诺出错的市场回调构成了海耶斯观点的基础。基本上，这位直言不讳的 BitMEX 创始人赞扬特朗普对地缘政治格局的诚实，他将其称为“特朗普真相”。

And while, in the voter’s mind, this means he’s speaking the truth about his intentions with crypto, Hayes believes the landscape is much more complicated than the community is willing to accept.

虽然在选民看来，这意味着他说出了自己对加密货币的意图的真相，但海耶斯认为，情况比社区愿意接受的要复杂得多。

According to Hayes, Trump has approximately one year to enact any real change to digital asset legislation before the midterm election shakes up the Senate.

海耶斯表示，在中期选举撼动参议院之前，特朗普有大约一年的时间对数字资产立法进行真正的修改。

And he thinks that, when the market realises Trump’s ability to enact legislative reform is constricted, they will begin a ‘harrowing dump’.

他认为，当市场意识到特朗普实施立法改革的能力受到限制时，他们将开始“痛苦的抛售”。

Pressure on the EU Set Up to Benefit Bitcoin in the Long Run

欧盟施加压力，从长远来看有利于比特币

It’s not all bad news, though.

不过，这也不全是坏消息。

Hayes admits that he could have got it wrong, and that the momentum of the current bull run could continue well past Trump’s inauguration.

海耶斯承认他可能弄错了，当前牛市的势头可能会持续到特朗普就职典礼之后。

If so, the market will be set up to capitalise on a changing global environment.

如果是这样，市场的建立将充分利用不断变化的全球环境。

And even with Hayes’ prediction for a problematic mid-Jan for cryptocurrency, he believes Bitcoin is still on its way to a stronger 2025.

尽管 Hayes 预测加密货币将在 1 月中旬出现问题，但他相信比特币仍将在 2025 年走强。

Germany, the historic engine of European growth, has stalled. Gross Domestic Product has been shrinking for over a year now and its once thriving manufacturing sector is in disarray.The chart below shows that the balance sheet of the European Central Bank has been contracting… pic.twitter.com/FkJnysS00J

德国作为欧洲经济增长的历史引擎，已经陷入停滞。国内生产总值已经萎缩一年多了，曾经繁荣的制造业陷入混乱。下图显示欧洲央行的资产负债表一直在收缩…… pic.twitter.com/FkJnysS00J

He suggests that a weakening EU economy may force governments to incentivise European assets over American, further debasing the EU compared to the US dollar (which is powering ahead at the time of writing).

他认为，欧盟经济疲软可能会迫使各国政府刺激欧洲资产而不是美国资产，从而进一步削弱欧盟相对于美元的贬值（在撰写本文时美元正在强劲上涨）。

When you have little option to invest in the stock, bonds, Forex or property markets, where might investors turn?

当您几乎没有选择投资股票、债券、外汇或房地产市场时，投资者可能会转向哪里？

Yep, you guessed it.

是的，你猜对了。

Bitcoin.

比特币。