阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 預測川普就職後市場將低迷——但這也不全然是壞消息

亞瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 帶著他的年終博文回歸了這個話題——這真是太棒了。如果你有大約三十分鐘的時間，這肯定會讓你讀起來很有趣（而且常常很幽默）。

Cryptocurrency market participants were buzzing with excitement in November when news of Donald Trump’s re-election swept across media channels.

11 月份，當唐納德·川普連任的消息席捲各媒體管道時，加密貨幣市場參與者興奮不已。

The momentum reached its peak this week, when BTC breached US $107k (AU $172k) amid speculation of a US strategic reserve comprising Bitcoin.

本週，由於人們猜測美國戰略儲備包括比特幣，比特幣突破了 10.7 萬美元（17.2 萬澳元），這一勢頭達到了頂峰。

However, the euphoria was dashed that very week, as the US Feds announced they’d likely only target two rate cuts in 2025, instead of the three most believed were coming.

然而，就在那一周，樂觀情緒破滅了，因為聯準會宣布他們可能只會在 2025 年降息兩次，而不是人們最相信的三次降息。

The market pullback based on a political promise going awry forms the basis of Hayes’ opinion. Basically, the outspoken founder of BitMEX praises Trump for being honest about the geopolitical landscape, in something he labels ‘Trump Truth’.

基於政治承諾出錯的市場回檔構成了海耶斯觀點的基礎。基本上，這位直言不諱的 BitMEX 創始人讚揚川普對地緣政治格局的誠實，他稱之為「川普真相」。

And while, in the voter’s mind, this means he’s speaking the truth about his intentions with crypto, Hayes believes the landscape is much more complicated than the community is willing to accept.

雖然在選民看來，這意味著他說出了自己對加密貨幣的意圖的真相，但海耶斯認為，情況比社區願意接受的要複雜得多。

According to Hayes, Trump has approximately one year to enact any real change to digital asset legislation before the midterm election shakes up the Senate.

海耶斯表示，在中期選舉撼動參議院之前，川普有大約一年的時間對數位資產立法進行真正的修改。

And he thinks that, when the market realises Trump’s ability to enact legislative reform is constricted, they will begin a ‘harrowing dump’.

他認為，當市場意識到川普實施立法改革的能力受到限制時，他們將開始「痛苦的拋售」。

Pressure on the EU Set Up to Benefit Bitcoin in the Long Run

歐盟施加壓力，長遠來看有利於比特幣

It’s not all bad news, though.

不過，這也不全然是壞消息。

Hayes admits that he could have got it wrong, and that the momentum of the current bull run could continue well past Trump’s inauguration.

海耶斯承認他可能弄錯了，當前牛市的勢頭可能會持續到川普就職典禮之後。

If so, the market will be set up to capitalise on a changing global environment.

如果是這樣，市場的建立將充分利用不斷變化的全球環境。

And even with Hayes’ prediction for a problematic mid-Jan for cryptocurrency, he believes Bitcoin is still on its way to a stronger 2025.

儘管 Hayes 預測加密貨幣將在 1 月中旬出現問題，但他相信比特幣仍將在 2025 年走強。

Germany, the historic engine of European growth, has stalled. Gross Domestic Product has been shrinking for over a year now and its once thriving manufacturing sector is in disarray.The chart below shows that the balance sheet of the European Central Bank has been contracting… pic.twitter.com/FkJnysS00J

德國作為歐洲經濟成長的歷史引擎，已經陷入停滯。國內生產毛額已經萎縮一年多了，曾經繁榮的製造業陷入混亂。

He suggests that a weakening EU economy may force governments to incentivise European assets over American, further debasing the EU compared to the US dollar (which is powering ahead at the time of writing).

他認為，歐盟經濟疲軟可能迫使各國政府刺激歐洲資產而不是美國資產，進一步削弱歐盟相對於美元的貶值（在撰寫本文時美元正在強勁上漲）。

When you have little option to invest in the stock, bonds, Forex or property markets, where might investors turn?

當您幾乎沒有選擇投資股票、債券、外匯或房地產市場時，投資者可能會轉向哪裡？

Yep, you guessed it.

是的，你猜對了。

Bitcoin.

比特幣。