随着比特币减半事件临近，预期升温，引发兴奋但谨慎

One of the most anticipated events of the year - the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving event - is now just days away, causing excitement in the cryptocurrency world.

一年中最令人期待的事件之一——即将到来的比特币减半事件——距离现在只有几天的时间，这引起了加密货币世界的兴奋。

Still, amid the anticipation, it's crucial to approach the hype with a discerning eye. Bitcoin has already hit all-time highs, rising over 50% this year, largely due to the launch of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

尽管如此，在人们的期待中，用敏锐的眼光来看待炒作是至关重要的。比特币已经创下历史新高，今年涨幅超过 50%，这主要归功于新的现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出。

The burning question on many minds is: how much higher can Bitcoin realistically go?

许多人心中最紧迫的问题是：比特币实际上能涨到多少？

Understanding halving: Separating fact from fiction

The halving, a recurring event that occurs approximately every four years, halves the rewards for mining a new block provided to Bitcoin miners. This reduction is built into the algorithm, making it immutable even to Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator creator of Bitcoin.

理解减半：区分事实与虚构 减半是大约每四年发生一次的重复事件，它将为比特币矿工提供的开采新区块的奖励减半。这种减少被内置在算法中，甚至对于比特币的匿名创造者中本聪来说也是不可变的。

Miners currently receive 6.25 BTC for each block added to the Bitcoin blockchain. Around April 20, however, this reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the main impact of halving is borne by Bitcoin miners.

目前，添加到比特币区块链的每个区块矿工都会收到 6.25 BTC。不过，到 4 月 20 日左右，这一奖励将减少至 3.125 BTC。因此，减半的影响主要由比特币矿工承担。

For potential Bitcoin investors, it may not seem exciting at first. It does not reflect the concept of a stock split by stocking them with additional BTC holdings. It also does not directly affect their overall rate of return, unlike the impact of a company's dividend halving.

对于潜在的比特币投资者来说，一开始可能看起来并不令人兴奋。它并不反映通过持有额外的比特币来进行股票分割的概念。与公司股息减半的影响不同，它也不会直接影响他们的整体回报率。

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Also, the event itself does not halve the total supply of Bitcoin, but rather to halving the rate of creation of new tokens. This usually causes a spike in the value of Bitcoin lasting 12 to 18 months.

.dark-mode .read-more {background-color: #343a40 !important;} 了解更多：顶级分析师的比特币价格预测 - 会发生什么？此外，该事件本身并没有将比特币的总供应量减半，而是将新代币的创建率减半。这通常会导致比特币价值持续 12 至 18 个月的飙升。

Historical Perspectives on the Bitcoin Halving

Previous such events in Bitcoin in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were accompanied by significant price spikes that shot Bitcoin to new all-time highs in each case.

比特币减半的历史观点 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的比特币减半事件都伴随着价格的大幅上涨，每次都将比特币推向历史新高。

For example, after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin was trading at around $10,000. In just 18 months, it catapulted to almost $69,000, demonstrating a remarkable sevenfold increase in price within a short period of time.

例如，2020 年 5 月减半后，比特币的交易价格约为 10,000 美元。在短短 18 个月内，它的价格飙升至近 69,000 美元，在短时间内价格上涨了七倍。

However, it is important to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future performance. Although the pattern repeated itself three times, this could be random, similar to flipping a coin and getting heads repeatedly.

然而，重要的是要认识到过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现。尽管该模式重复了三次，但这可能是随机的，类似于抛硬币并反复出现正面。

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Back to basics

From a supply perspective, the rate of creation of new BTC tokens is halving, especially at a time when there is a limited amount left to mine. With the maximum circulating supply limited algorithmically to 21 million BTc, and nearly 19.7 million of them already in circulation, the argument for Bitcoin's scarcity is gaining strength.

.dark-mode .read-more {background-color: #343a40 !important;} 阅读更多：抛弃美元，转向比特币 - Robert Kiyosaki 回到基础从供应角度来看，新 BTC 代币的创建速度正在减半，尤其是在可供开采的数量有限的时候。由于最大流通供应量在算法上被限制为 2100 万个 BTC，而且其中近 1970 万个已经在流通，关于比特币稀缺性的争论正在增强。

Additionally, the emergence of new spot Bitcoin ETFs is driving significant demand, with both retail and institutional investors looking to include Bitcoin in their portfolios. This demand is expected to escalate over time as investors direct more capital to Bitcoin.

此外，新现货比特币 ETF 的出现正在推动巨大的需求，散户和机构投资者都希望将比特币纳入其投资组合。随着投资者将更多资金投入比特币，这种需求预计将随着时间的推移而升级。

The combination of these factors suggests that increased demand intersecting with relatively stable supply should lead to a surge in prices. This effect could be significant, especially if enthusiasm for the new spot Bitcoin ETFs continues. With over $30 billion already invested in them, any rally after the halving could push that figure further, sending Bitcoin's price up even more.

这些因素的结合表明，需求的增加与相对稳定的供应相结合应该会导致价格飙升。这种影响可能会很大，特别是如果人们对新的现货比特币 ETF 的热情持续下去的话。由于已经投资了超过 300 亿美元，减半后的任何反弹都可能进一步推高这一数字，从而进一步推高比特币的价格。