隨著比特幣減半事件臨近，預期升溫，引發興奮但謹慎

One of the most anticipated events of the year - the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving event - is now just days away, causing excitement in the cryptocurrency world.

一年中最令人期待的事件之一——即將到來的比特幣減半——距離現在只有幾天的時間，這引起了加密貨幣世界的興奮。

Still, amid the anticipation, it's crucial to approach the hype with a discerning eye. Bitcoin has already hit all-time highs, rising over 50% this year, largely due to the launch of new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

儘管如此，在人們的期待中，用敏銳的眼光來看待炒作是至關重要的。比特幣已經創下歷史新高，今年漲幅超過 50%，這主要歸功於新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出。

The burning question on many minds is: how much higher can Bitcoin realistically go?

許多人心中最迫切的問題是：比特幣實際上能漲到多少？

Understanding halving: Separating fact from fiction

The halving, a recurring event that occurs approximately every four years, halves the rewards for mining a new block provided to Bitcoin miners. This reduction is built into the algorithm, making it immutable even to Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator creator of Bitcoin.

理解減半：區分事實與虛構 減半是大約每四年發生一次的重複事件，它將為比特幣礦工提供的開採新區塊的獎勵減半。這種減少被內建在演算法中，甚至對比特幣的匿名創造者中本聰來說也是不可變的。

Miners currently receive 6.25 BTC for each block added to the Bitcoin blockchain. Around April 20, however, this reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the main impact of halving is borne by Bitcoin miners.

目前，添加到比特幣區塊鏈的每個區塊礦工都會收到 6.25 BTC。不過，到 4 月 20 日左右，這項獎勵將減少至 3.125 BTC。因此，減半的影響主要由比特幣礦工承擔。

For potential Bitcoin investors, it may not seem exciting at first. It does not reflect the concept of a stock split by stocking them with additional BTC holdings. It also does not directly affect their overall rate of return, unlike the impact of a company's dividend halving.

對於潛在的比特幣投資者來說，一開始可能看起來並不令人興奮。它並不反映透過持有額外的比特幣來進行股票分割的概念。與公司股利減半的影響不同，它也不會直接影響他們的整體報酬率。

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Also, the event itself does not halve the total supply of Bitcoin, but rather to halving the rate of creation of new tokens. This usually causes a spike in the value of Bitcoin lasting 12 to 18 months.

.dark-mode .read-more {background-color: #343a40 !important;} 了解更多：頂級分析師的比特幣價格預測 - 會發生什麼？此外，該事件本身並沒有將比特幣的總供應量減半，而是將新代幣的創建率減半。這通常會導致比特幣價值持續 12 至 18 個月的飆升。

Historical Perspectives on the Bitcoin Halving

Previous such events in Bitcoin in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were accompanied by significant price spikes that shot Bitcoin to new all-time highs in each case.

比特幣減半的歷史觀點 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的比特幣減半事件都伴隨著價格的大幅上漲，每次都將比特幣推向歷史新高。

For example, after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin was trading at around $10,000. In just 18 months, it catapulted to almost $69,000, demonstrating a remarkable sevenfold increase in price within a short period of time.

例如，2020 年 5 月減半後，比特幣的交易價格約為 10,000 美元。在短短 18 個月內，它的價格飆升至近 69,000 美元，在短時間內價格上漲了七倍。

However, it is important to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future performance. Although the pattern repeated itself three times, this could be random, similar to flipping a coin and getting heads repeatedly.

然而，重要的是要認識到過去的表現並不能保證未來的表現。儘管該模式重複了三次，但這可能是隨機的，類似於拋硬幣並反覆出現正面。

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Back to basics

From a supply perspective, the rate of creation of new BTC tokens is halving, especially at a time when there is a limited amount left to mine. With the maximum circulating supply limited algorithmically to 21 million BTc, and nearly 19.7 million of them already in circulation, the argument for Bitcoin's scarcity is gaining strength.

.dark-mode .read-more {background-color: #343a40 !important;} 閱讀更多：拋棄美元，轉向比特幣- Robert Kiyosaki 回到基礎從供應角度來看，新BTC 代幣的創建速度正在減半，尤其是在可供開採的數量有限的時候。由於最大流通供應量在演算法上被限制為 2,100 萬個 BTC，而且其中近 1,970 萬個已經在流通，關於比特幣稀缺性的爭論正在增強。

Additionally, the emergence of new spot Bitcoin ETFs is driving significant demand, with both retail and institutional investors looking to include Bitcoin in their portfolios. This demand is expected to escalate over time as investors direct more capital to Bitcoin.

此外，新現貨比特幣 ETF 的出現正在推動巨大的需求，散戶和機構投資者都希望將比特幣納入其投資組合。隨著投資者將更多資金投入比特幣，這種需求預計將隨著時間的推移而升級。

The combination of these factors suggests that increased demand intersecting with relatively stable supply should lead to a surge in prices. This effect could be significant, especially if enthusiasm for the new spot Bitcoin ETFs continues. With over $30 billion already invested in them, any rally after the halving could push that figure further, sending Bitcoin's price up even more.

這些因素的結合表明，需求的增加與相對穩定的供應相結合應該會導致價格飆升。這種影響可能會很大，特別是如果人們對新的現貨比特幣 ETF 的熱情持續下去的話。由於已經投資了超過 300 億美元，減半後的任何反彈都可能進一步推高這一數字，從而進一步推高比特幣的價格。