分析师：比特币长期持有者坚守，不太可能跌破 20,000 美元

Bitfinex 分析师表示，由于自 2023 年 2 月以来长期持有者大量买入，比特币 (BTC) 在当前周期中的交易价格不太可能低于 20,000 美元。鉴于短期持有者的实际价格为 55,834 美元，分析师认为，这是一个至关重要的关键因素。支撑/阻力水平。尽管近期 ETF 流量为负，但分析师仍持乐观态度，表明投资者正在将资金转向费用较低的提供商。

Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Drive Resistance, Unlikely to Breach $20,000 in Current Cycle, Analysts Assert

分析师断言，比特币的长期持有者推动阻力，当前周期不太可能突破 20,000 美元

With long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders relentlessly accumulating the digital asset since early February 2023, it is highly improbable that Bitcoin will trade below the $20,000 threshold in the current market cycle, according to analysts at Bitfinex, a leading cryptocurrency exchange.

领先的加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 的分析师表示，随着长期比特币 (BTC) 持有者自 2023 年 2 月以来不断积累数字资产，在当前的市场周期中，比特币的交易价格极不可能低于 20,000 美元。

Data compiled by Bitfinex reveals that long-term holders have been actively purchasing Bitcoin since February when the cryptocurrency's value exceeded $24,000. This cohort of investors has a realized price below $20,000, implying that they are deeply entrenched in the market and unlikely to sell at a loss.

Bitfinex 编制的数据显示，自 2 月份加密货币价值超过 24,000 美元以来，长期持有者一直在积极购买比特币。这群投资者的实际价格低于 20,000 美元，这意味着他们在市场上根深蒂固，不太可能亏本出售。

Currently trading at approximately $70,600, Bitcoin's short-term holder realized price rests at $55,834. Bitfinex analysts emphasize the significance of this level, stating that it has emerged as a "crucial dynamic support/resistance level throughout this cycle."

目前比特币的交易价格约为 70,600 美元，短期持有者的实际价格为 55,834 美元。 Bitfinex 分析师强调了这一水平的重要性，称其已成为“整个周期中关键的动态支撑/阻力水平”。

"Regardless of whether we see BTC move lower, we do not expect a V-shaped recovery as has been the case for previous dips since 2023," the Bitfinex analysts note, suggesting that any market volatility is likely to be contained within a specific range.

Bitfinex 分析师指出，“无论我们是否看到 BTC 走低，我们预计不会像 2023 年以来的下跌那样出现 V 型复苏”，这表明任何市场波动都可能被控制在特定范围内。

In the event of a decline, the analysts anticipate a maximum downturn of 23-24% from a new local high to the bottom, which aligns with a retracement to approximately $56,000.

如果出现下跌，分析师预计从新的局部高点到底部的最大跌幅为 23-24%，这与回调至约 56,000 美元一致。

While the recent influx of negative flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has raised some concerns, Bitfinex analysts downplay their significance. They attribute the outflows to investors seeking alternative ETF providers with lower management fees, rather than a fundamental shift in investor sentiment.

尽管最近大量涌入现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的负面资金引起了一些担忧，但 Bitfinex 分析师淡化了其重要性。他们将资金外流归因于投资者寻求管理费较低的替代 ETF 提供商，而不是投资者情绪的根本转变。

Data from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, a prominent Bitcoin investment vehicle, indicates net outflows exceeding $2 billion in the past week, with a net outflow of $896 million after factoring in inflows from other ETFs.

著名的比特币投资工具灰度比特币 ETF 的数据显示，过去一周净流出超过 20 亿美元，考虑到其他 ETF 的流入，净流出为 8.96 亿美元。

Despite the negative ETF flows, the Bitfinex analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They maintain that these outflows do not pose a significant threat to the broader market sentiment, and that Bitcoin remains poised for further growth in the current cycle.

尽管 ETF 流量为负，Bitfinex 分析师仍对比特币的长期前景持乐观态度。他们认为，这些资金外流不会对更广泛的市场情绪构成重大威胁，并且比特币在当前周期中仍有望进一步增长。

Overall, the Bitfinex analysis suggests that Bitcoin's long-term holders are providing a robust foundation of support, making it unlikely that the cryptocurrency will trade below $20,000 in the current market cycle. While short-term fluctuations are possible, analysts anticipate a relatively stable trading range with a bias towards continued appreciation.

总体而言，Bitfinex 的分析表明，比特币的长期持有者正在提供坚实的支撑基础，使得该加密货币在当前市场周期中的交易价格不太可能低于 20,000 美元。虽然短期波动是可能的，但分析师预计交易区间相对稳定，并倾向于持续升值。