分析师预测比特币将飙升至 30 万美元，克服市场周期干扰

分析师 PlanB 预测，减半后比特币价格将大幅上涨，预计今年将上涨 10 万美元，到 2025 年可能上涨至 30 万美元。尽管本周期存在偏差，但受减半对供应量影响的支持，PlanB 仍然坚信比特币价格将大幅上涨减少以及比特币 ETF 产生的高需求。

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $300,000 Post-Halving, Defying Cyclical Disruption

分析师预测比特币减半后将飙升至 30 万美元，克服周期性干扰

Renowned analyst PlanB, the mastermind behind the acclaimed Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) pricing model, has made a bold claim regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. In a recent tweet, PlanB asserted that the halving will ignite a price surge that will propel Bitcoin to an unprecedented $100,000 this year, followed by a further ascent to a staggering $300,000 in 2025.

著名分析师 PlanB，即广受好评的比特币 Stock-to-Flow（S2F）定价模型的策划者，对即将到来的比特币减半事件做出了大胆的断言。 PlanB 在最近的一条推文中声称，减半将引发价格飙升，推动比特币今年达到前所未有的 10 万美元，随后在 2025 年进一步升至惊人的 30 万美元。

Despite the widespread assumption that the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted the traditional Bitcoin cycle, PlanB adamantly maintains that the halving will remain the catalyst for Bitcoin's price action. He believes that the halving, which reduces the supply of new BTC by 50%, will inevitably lead to an increase in its price, given the persistent or even increasing demand for the cryptocurrency.

尽管人们普遍认为比特币 ETF 的推出扰乱了传统的比特币周期，但 PlanB 坚定地认为，减半仍将是比特币价格走势的催化剂。他认为，鉴于对加密货币的需求持续甚至不断增加，减半将导致新比特币的供应量减少 50％，这将不可避免地导致其价格上涨。

PlanB's confidence stems from a historical pattern observed in the Bitcoin market. Every halving event has been followed by a period of significant price appreciation, lasting approximately 1.5 years. This pattern suggests that the upcoming halving will trigger a similar surge, with the price reaching $100,000 in 2024 and peaking at $300,000 in 2025.

PlanB 的信心源于比特币市场观察到的历史模式。每次减半事件之后都会出现一段持续约 1.5 年的价格大幅上涨时期。这种模式表明，即将到来的减半将引发类似的飙升，价格将在 2024 年达到 10 万美元，并在 2025 年达到峰值 30 万美元。

The current cycle, however, has witnessed a deviation from this pattern. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January propelled BTC to break its all-time high of $69,000 and establish a new record of $73,700, a remarkable feat that typically occurs after a halving.

然而，当前的周期却偏离了这一模式。 1 月份比特币 ETF 的推出推动 BTC 突破 69,000 美元的历史高点，并创下 73,700 美元的新纪录，这是通常在减半后发生的非凡壮举。

Despite this anomaly, PlanB remains steadfast in his conviction that the halving will remain the primary driver of Bitcoin's price surge. A recent survey conducted by PlanB revealed that the majority of respondents (71.9%) believe that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, corroborating his bullish sentiment.

尽管存在这种异常现象，PlanB 仍然坚信减半仍将是比特币价格飙升的主要推动力。 PlanB 最近进行的一项调查显示，大多数受访者（71.9%）认为比特币今年将达到 10 万美元，证实了他的看涨情绪。

PlanB's analysis extends beyond price predictions. He emphasizes the strategic value of buying BTC six months before the halving and selling it 18 months later. He argues that this strategy has historically outperformed a buy-and-hold approach.

PlanB 的分析超出了价格预测的范围。他强调了在减半前 6 个月购买 BTC 并在 18 个月后出售的战略价值。他认为，从历史上看，这种策略的表现优于买入并持有的策略。

Moreover, PlanB contends that Bitcoin is progressively surpassing gold as a superior asset. The upcoming halving will double Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow ratio to 112, while gold's ratio remains stagnant at approximately 60. This suggests that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce compared to gold, enhancing its appeal as an investment vehicle.

此外，PlanB 认为比特币正逐渐超越黄金成为优质资产。即将到来的减半将使比特币的存量与流量比率翻倍至 112，而黄金的比率仍停滞在 60 左右。这表明，与黄金相比，比特币变得越来越稀缺，增强了其作为投资工具的吸引力。

PlanB's analysis is a compelling reminder of the transformative power of the Bitcoin halving. While deviations from historical patterns can occur, the halving remains the cornerstone of Bitcoin's price trajectory. As we approach the next halving event, investors would be wise to heed PlanB's insights and consider their potential implications for their investment decisions.

PlanB 的分析令人信服地提醒我们比特币减半的变革力量。尽管可能会出现偏离历史模式的情况，但减半仍然是比特币价格轨迹的基石。随着下一次减半事件的临近，投资者应该明智地关注 PlanB 的见解，并考虑其对投资决策的潜在影响。