分析师 Willy Woo 表示，随着加密货币市场的成熟，山寨币的季节可能会消失

加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 表示，虽然这些“替代季节”可能会持续，但它们的回报可能会随着时间的推移而减弱。这种转变表明市场更加成熟和有选择性。

Crypto analyst Willy Woo has shared his thoughts on altcoin seasons, suggesting that while they may continue, their intensity and returns will likely weaken over time.

加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 分享了他对山寨币季节的看法，表明虽然它们可能会持续，但它们的强度和回报可能会随着时间的推移而减弱。

This shift, according to Woo, shows a more mature and selective market, where the intense speculations of past alt booms (like the 2017 Initial Coin Offering (ICO) bubble) are unlikely to return.

Woo 认为，这种转变表明市场更加成熟和有选择性，过去的另类繁荣（如 2017 年首次代币发行 (ICO) 泡沫）的激烈投机不太可能重现。

Through an X post, Willy Woo shared that while smaller-cap coins will likely continue to rally after Bitcoin gains, the intensity and long duration of the rallies are expected to decline. This is because altcoins are a “higher-up” risk investment, attracting funds from investors looking for higher returns when Bitcoin’s growth slows.

Willy Woo 通过 X 帖子表示，虽然比特币上涨后小盘股可能会继续上涨，但上涨的强度和持续时间预计会下降。这是因为山寨币是一种“较高”风险投资，在比特币增长放缓时吸引了寻求更高回报的投资者的资金。

I haven’t talked about altcoins in years, I quit my interest in them after the “shit rolls downhill chart” mapping the performance of 10,000 of them. But someone asked me specifically and this is how I see altcoin market cap…This cycle has been markedly different from others…

我已经很多年没有谈论过山寨币了，在绘制了 10,000 个山寨币表现的“狗屎滚下坡图表”之后，我就放弃了对它们的兴趣。但有人专门问我，这就是我对山寨币市值的看法……这个周期与其他周期明显不同……

Bitcoin Dominance and Memecoins Shape the Current Cycle

比特币的主导地位和模因币塑造了当前的周期

Bitcoin dominance is one of the key indicators used in predicting the start of altcoins rally. Currently, Bitcoin accounts for 59.3% of the market’s value, and many analysts believe that altcoins will only see fresh inflows when Bitcoin’s dominance reaches or goes beyond 60% — a level that usually signals a shift to smaller-cap coins.

比特币的主导地位是预测山寨币反弹开始的关键指标之一。目前，比特币占市场价值的 59.3%，许多分析师认为，只有当比特币的主导地位达到或超过 60% 时，山寨币才会出现新的资金流入——这一水平通常标志着向小盘股货币的转变。

Woo points out that the current altcoin rally atmosphere is also different from the previous ones, due to the nature of coins driving it. Memecoins have taken the spotlight in recent Alt seasons, which Woo likens to a “bubble casino” rather than innovation with real-world application. Unlike the early days of altcoins, where projects aimed to innovate, Woo believes the current cycle heavily relies on speculative, high-risk digital assets that often lack solid utility value.

Woo指出，由于推动价格上涨的代币的性质，当前的山寨币上涨氛围也与之前不同。 Memecoins 在最近的 Alt 季节中引起了人们的关注，Woo 将其比作“泡沫赌场”，而不是现实世界应用的创新。与早期旨在创新的山寨币项目不同，Woo 认为当前的周期严重依赖于投机性、高风险的数字资产，而这些资产往往缺乏坚实的实用价值。

This view contrasts with other perspectives, such as that of Mati Greenspan, who recently stated that the next bull run might focus on Bitcoin and its Layer 2 solutions rather than altcoins. Greenspan sees Bitcoin as the primary driver of the upcoming cycle, with its Layer 2 scaling solutions capturing more attention than speculative altcoin investments.

这种观点与其他观点形成鲜明对比，例如马蒂·格林斯潘（Mati Greenspan）的观点，他最近表示，下一次牛市可能会关注比特币及其第 2 层解决方案，而不是山寨币。格林斯潘将比特币视为即将到来的周期的主要驱动力，其第 2 层扩容解决方案比投机性山寨币投资吸引了更多关注。

However, the broader data supports Woo’s tempered outlook. As of 2024, the altcoin market cap has not been able to sustain growth beyond temporary rallies, with prices merely bouncing back to previous levels rather than surging to new all-time highs. Although, a full-blown altcoin season usually outperforms Bitcoin for a minimum of three months. Recent trends have shown only brief periods where altcoins outperform, before falling short of the previous highs.

然而，更广泛的数据支持了吴的温和前景。截至 2024 年，山寨币市值无法在暂时反弹之后维持增长，价格只是反弹至之前的水平，而不是飙升至历史新高。尽管如此，成熟的山寨币季节通常至少在三个月内表现优于比特币。最近的趋势仅显示山寨币在短暂时期表现出色，然后又低于之前的高点。

Caution Urged for Long-Term Altcoin Holding

长期持有山寨币需谨慎

Furthermore, Woo advises caution with the long-term holding of altcoins, as their market caps often reflect only the current successful projects, without including numerous failed ones over time.

此外，Woo 建议长期持有山寨币要谨慎，因为它们的市值通常只反映当前成功的项目，而不包括随着时间的推移而出现的大量失败项目。

While some market watchers remain optimistic that altcoin seasons could still deliver strong returns, Woo’s view reflects a more cautious perspective. As the crypto market matures and investor preferences shift towards projects with solid fundamentals and real-world applications, the days of high-flying altcoin seasons may be gradually fading — replaced by a market that rewards coins with utility and longevity over those with just speculative appeal.

尽管一些市场观察人士仍然乐观地认为山寨币季节仍能带来强劲回报，但吴的观点反映了更为谨慎的观点。随着加密货币市场的成熟，投资者的偏好转向具有坚实基础和实际应用的项目，山寨币蓬勃发展的时代可能会逐渐消失——取而代之的是一个奖励具有实用性和寿命的代币的市场，而不是那些只有投机吸引力的代币。

Most importantly, investors need to think about these perspectives carefully, while remaining vigilant in an environment where shifts in market sentiment can be fast and dramatic.

最重要的是，投资者需要仔细考虑这些观点，同时在市场情绪变化迅速且剧烈的环境中保持警惕。

Richard AlagbeEditor

理查德·阿拉格贝 (Richard Alagbe) 剪辑