分析師 Willy Woo 表示，隨著加密貨幣市場的成熟，山寨幣的季節可能會消失

加密貨幣分析師 Willy Woo 表示，雖然這些「替代季節」可能會持續，但它們的回報可能會隨著時間的推移而減弱。這種轉變顯示市場更加成熟和有選擇性。

Crypto analyst Willy Woo has shared his thoughts on altcoin seasons, suggesting that while they may continue, their intensity and returns will likely weaken over time.

加密貨幣分析師 Willy Woo 分享了他對山寨幣季節的看法，表明雖然它們可能會持續，但它們的強度和回報可能會隨著時間的推移而減弱。

This shift, according to Woo, shows a more mature and selective market, where the intense speculations of past alt booms (like the 2017 Initial Coin Offering (ICO) bubble) are unlikely to return.

Woo 認為，這種轉變表明市場更加成熟和有選擇性，過去的另類繁榮（如 2017 年首次代幣發行 (ICO) 泡沫）的激烈投機不太可能重現。

Through an X post, Willy Woo shared that while smaller-cap coins will likely continue to rally after Bitcoin gains, the intensity and long duration of the rallies are expected to decline. This is because altcoins are a “higher-up” risk investment, attracting funds from investors looking for higher returns when Bitcoin’s growth slows.

Willy Woo 透過 X 貼文表示，雖然比特幣上漲後小型股可能會繼續上漲，但上漲的強度和持續時間預計會下降。這是因為山寨幣是一種「較高」風險投資，在比特幣成長放緩時吸引了尋求更高回報的投資者的資金。

I haven’t talked about altcoins in years, I quit my interest in them after the “shit rolls downhill chart” mapping the performance of 10,000 of them. But someone asked me specifically and this is how I see altcoin market cap…This cycle has been markedly different from others…

我已經很多年沒有談論過山寨幣了，在繪製了 10,000 個山寨幣表現的“狗屎滾下坡圖表”之後，我就放棄了對它們的興趣。但有人專門問我，這就是我對山寨幣市值的看法…這個週期與其他週期明顯不同…

Bitcoin Dominance and Memecoins Shape the Current Cycle

比特幣的主導地位和迷因幣塑造了當前的週期

Bitcoin dominance is one of the key indicators used in predicting the start of altcoins rally. Currently, Bitcoin accounts for 59.3% of the market’s value, and many analysts believe that altcoins will only see fresh inflows when Bitcoin’s dominance reaches or goes beyond 60% — a level that usually signals a shift to smaller-cap coins.

比特幣的主導地位是預測山寨幣反彈開始的關鍵指標之一。目前，比特幣佔市場價值的59.3%，許多分析師認為，只有當比特幣的主導地位達到或超過60% 時，山寨幣才會出現新的資金流入——這一水平通常標誌著向小盤股貨幣的轉變。

Woo points out that the current altcoin rally atmosphere is also different from the previous ones, due to the nature of coins driving it. Memecoins have taken the spotlight in recent Alt seasons, which Woo likens to a “bubble casino” rather than innovation with real-world application. Unlike the early days of altcoins, where projects aimed to innovate, Woo believes the current cycle heavily relies on speculative, high-risk digital assets that often lack solid utility value.

Woo指出，由於推動價格上漲的代幣的性質，當前的山寨幣上漲氛圍也與之前不同。 Memecoins 在最近的 Alt 季節中引起了人們的關注，Woo 將其比作“泡沫賭場”，而不是現實世界應用的創新。與早期旨在創新的山寨幣專案不同，Woo 認為當前的周期嚴重依賴投機性、高風險的數位資產，而這些資產往往缺乏堅實的實用價值。

This view contrasts with other perspectives, such as that of Mati Greenspan, who recently stated that the next bull run might focus on Bitcoin and its Layer 2 solutions rather than altcoins. Greenspan sees Bitcoin as the primary driver of the upcoming cycle, with its Layer 2 scaling solutions capturing more attention than speculative altcoin investments.

這種觀點與其他觀點形成鮮明對比，例如馬蒂·格林斯潘（Mati Greenspan）的觀點，他最近表示，下一次牛市可能會關注比特幣及其第 2 層解決方案，而不是山寨幣。葛林斯潘將比特幣視為即將到來的周期的主要驅動力，其第 2 層擴容解決方案比投機山寨幣投資吸引了更多關注。

However, the broader data supports Woo’s tempered outlook. As of 2024, the altcoin market cap has not been able to sustain growth beyond temporary rallies, with prices merely bouncing back to previous levels rather than surging to new all-time highs. Although, a full-blown altcoin season usually outperforms Bitcoin for a minimum of three months. Recent trends have shown only brief periods where altcoins outperform, before falling short of the previous highs.

然而，更廣泛的數據支持了吳的溫和前景。截至 2024 年，山寨幣市值無法在暫時反彈之後維持成長，價格只是反彈至之前的水平，而不是飆升至歷史新高。儘管如此，成熟的山寨幣季節通常至少在三個月內表現優於比特幣。最近的趨勢僅顯示山寨幣表現短暫，然後又低於先前的高點。

Caution Urged for Long-Term Altcoin Holding

長期持有山寨幣需謹慎

Furthermore, Woo advises caution with the long-term holding of altcoins, as their market caps often reflect only the current successful projects, without including numerous failed ones over time.

此外，Woo 建議長期持有山寨幣要謹慎，因為它們的市值通常只反映當前成功的項目，而不包括隨著時間的推移而出現的大量失敗項目。

While some market watchers remain optimistic that altcoin seasons could still deliver strong returns, Woo’s view reflects a more cautious perspective. As the crypto market matures and investor preferences shift towards projects with solid fundamentals and real-world applications, the days of high-flying altcoin seasons may be gradually fading — replaced by a market that rewards coins with utility and longevity over those with just speculative appeal.

儘管一些市場觀察家仍然樂觀地認為山寨幣季節仍能帶來強勁回報，但吳的觀點反映了更謹慎的觀點。隨著加密貨幣市場的成熟，投資者的偏好轉向具有堅實基礎和實際應用的項目，山寨幣蓬勃發展的時代可能會逐漸消失——取而代之的是一個獎勵具有實用性和壽命的代幣的市場，而不是那些只有投機吸引力的代幣。

Most importantly, investors need to think about these perspectives carefully, while remaining vigilant in an environment where shifts in market sentiment can be fast and dramatic.

最重要的是，投資人需要仔細考慮這些觀點，同時在市場情緒變化迅速且劇烈的環境中保持警惕。

Richard AlagbeEditor

理查德·阿拉格貝 (Richard Alagbe) 剪輯