山寨币季节即将到来：历史模式表明看涨潮

作为主要的加密货币，比特币引领了加密市场增长周期的趋势。在比特币最初上涨之后，山寨币通常会获得动力，特别是在减半事件之后。从历史上看，这些时期见证了山寨币价格的大幅上涨，新项目的推出、技术进步和投机活动推动了人们对山寨币的关注。即将到来的 4 月 15 日比特币减半可能会引发一系列类似的事件，促使分析师预测投资者准备抓住机会的山寨币季节。

Altcoin Season on the Horizon: A Deep Dive into the Historical Patterns and Potential Catalysts

山寨币季节即将到来：深入探讨历史模式和潜在催化剂

The cryptocurrency market has consistently adhered to a cyclical pattern, with Bitcoin (BTC), the dominant cryptocurrency, setting the initial trajectory. However, as the rally progresses, a shift occurs, and other cryptocurrencies, colloquially termed "altcoins," gain significant momentum.

加密货币市场始终遵循周期性模式，其中占主导地位的加密货币比特币（BTC）设定了最初的轨迹。然而，随着反弹的进展，发生了转变，其他加密货币（俗称“山寨币”）获得了巨大的动力。

Historically, altcoin seasons have coincided with the Bitcoin halving event, a fixed halving of the Bitcoin block reward that occurs approximately every four years. During these periods, altcoins have experienced remarkable price appreciation, often surpassing Bitcoin's own gains. Driven by a combination of project launches, technological advancements, increasing utility, and speculation, altcoins have captured the market's attention, leading to a significant increase in their market share.

从历史上看，山寨币季节与比特币减半事件同时发生，比特币区块奖励大约每四年固定减半一次。在此期间，山寨币的价格大幅上涨，往往超过了比特币本身的涨幅。在项目启动、技术进步、效用增加和投机的共同推动下，山寨币吸引了市场的注意力，导致其市场份额大幅增加。

As we approach the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 15th, the cryptocurrency market appears to be following a similar trend. The halving is anticipated to trigger a chain of events analogous to those observed in previous halving cycles, particularly in 2020 and 2016. As Bitcoin's price fluctuates, analysts speculate that an altcoin season may be imminent, presenting investors with an opportune moment to capitalize on the potential gains.

随着 4 月 15 日即将到来的比特币减半事件临近，加密货币市场似乎也遵循着类似的趋势。预计减半将引发一系列类似于之前减半周期中观察到的事件，特别是在 2020 年和 2016 年。随着比特币价格波动，分析师推测山寨币季节可能即将到来，这为投资者提供了利用比特币减半的绝佳时机。潜在的收益。

Historical Context of Altcoin Seasons

山寨币季节的历史背景

The first notable altcoin season occurred in late 2017. Bitcoin's market dominance plummeted from 83% at the beginning of the year to an all-time low of 32% in January 2018. Fueled by the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom, Ethereum (ETH) experienced an impressive surge, along with coins such as Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), and Stellar Lumens (XLM). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization soared from approximately $30 billion to over $600 billion during this period.

第一个值得注意的山寨币季节出现在 2017 年底。比特币的市场主导地位从年初的 83% 骤降到 2018 年 1 月的 32% 的历史低点。在首次代币发行 (ICO) 繁荣的推动下，以太坊 (ETH) ）以及 Ripple (XRP)、Litecoin (LTC)、Cardano (ADA) 和 Stellar Lumens (XLM) 等代币经历了令人印象深刻的飙升。在此期间，加密货币总市值从约 300 亿美元飙升至超过 6000 亿美元。

The second significant altcoin season emerged in 2021. Bitcoin's dominance fell from 70% to 38% within several months. This period was marked by a surge in the popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and memecoins. While Ethereum benefited from this growth, layer-2 solutions like Polygon (MATIC), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and the controversial Terra (LUNA) also gained traction. Memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) witnessed spectacular surges, demonstrating the potential of even seemingly whimsical assets. Notably, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion for the first time during this season.

第二个重要的山寨币季节出现在 2021 年。比特币的主导地位在几个月内从 70% 下降到 38%。这一时期的特点是去中心化金融（DeFi）、不可替代代币（NFT）和模因币的流行。虽然以太坊受益于这种增长，但 Polygon (MATIC)、Binance Coin (BNB)、Solana (SOL) 和有争议的 Terra (LUNA) 等 Layer-2 解决方案也获得了关注。狗狗币（DOGE）和柴犬币（SHIB）等 Memecoin 见证了惊人的飙升，展示了看似异想天开的资产的潜力。值得注意的是，本季度加密货币总市值首次突破 3 万亿美元。

Market Analysis and Potential Timeline

市场分析和潜在时间表

Presently, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at $1.3 trillion, while other cryptocurrencies, collectively represented by Cryptocap's TOTAL2 index, account for $1.1 trillion. A comparison of Bitcoin's market capitalization to TOTAL2 since the depths of the 2019 bear market illustrates the interplay between these asset classes. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a surge in value a few months prior to the halving, followed by a period of decline or sideways movement before resuming its upward trajectory and reaching new highs. It is during this ascent that altcoins typically experience a significant rise.

目前，比特币的市值为 1.3 万亿美元，而以 Cryptocap 的 TOTAL2 指数为代表的其他加密货币的市值为 1.1 万亿美元。自 2019 年熊市最深处以来，比特币市值与 TOTAL2 的比较说明了这些资产类别之间的相互作用。从历史上看，比特币在减半前几个月表现出价值飙升，随后经历一段时期的下跌或横盘整理，然后恢复上升轨迹并达到新高。正是在这一上升过程中，山寨币通常会经历大幅上涨。

Assuming that the current cycle adheres to previous patterns, the true altcoin season is projected to commence approximately a year from now. However, some analysts suggest that the timing may be accelerated this time around, considering that Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high last month, potentially shortening the overall cycle.

假设当前周期遵循以前的模式，真正的山寨币季节预计将在大约一年后开始。然而，一些分析师表示，考虑到比特币上个月刚刚达到历史新高，这一次的时机可能会加快，可能会缩短整体周期。

Potential Altcoin Narratives in 2024

2024 年潜在的山寨币故事

While the exact timing of the altcoin season remains uncertain, its arrival is highly probable. With that in mind, it can be beneficial to prepare a watchlist of key narratives that may drive the season and identify potential buying opportunities. This list encompasses both established and emerging cryptocurrencies, with the latter offering the potential for significant upside but also increased risk.

虽然山寨币季节的确切时间仍不确定，但它的到来的可能性很大。考虑到这一点，准备一份可能推动季节发展并确定潜在购买机会的关键叙述的观察列表可能是有益的。该列表涵盖了成熟的和新兴的加密货币，后者提供了巨大的上涨潜力，但也增加了风险。

Among the established altcoins that have consistently demonstrated relevance and resilience, Solana and Avalanche (AVAX) have emerged as formidable competitors to Ethereum and BNB in the general blockchain category.

在一贯表现出相关性和弹性的成熟山寨币中，Solana 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 已成为一般区块链类别中以太坊和 BNB 的强大竞争对手。

In the realm of specialized blockchains catering to the crypto gaming narrative, Immutable X and Ronin have established themselves as industry leaders. Coingecko estimates the market capitalization of this sector to be approximately $17 billion.

在迎合加密游戏叙事的专业区块链领域，Immutable X 和 Ronin 已经确立了自己的行业领导者地位。 Coingecko 估计该行业的市值约为 170 亿美元。

Coins related to artificial intelligence (AI) are among the season's most promising newcomers. AGIX, Fetch.ai (FET), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) are leading players in this domain, with a collective market capitalization of $25 billion.

与人工智能（AI）相关的硬币是本季度最有前途的新硬币之一。 AGIX、Fetch.ai (FET) 和 Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) 是该领域的领先参与者，总市值达 250 亿美元。

Decentralized infrastructure (DePIN) remains a growing sector, with Filecoin (FIL), Arweave (AR), and Chainlink (LINK) being some of the most notable protocols. The combined market capitalization of this sector is estimated to be around $30 billion.

去中心化基础设施 (DePIN) 仍然是一个不断增长的领域，其中 Filecoin (FIL)、Arweave (AR) 和 Chainlink (LINK) 是一些最著名的协议。该行业的总市值估计约为 300 亿美元。

For those interested in memecoins, new Solana-based projects like Dogwifhat are gaining momentum, offering a potentially amusing yet risky investment opportunity. The overall memecoin market capitalization of $61.5 billion indicates the substantial interest in these seemingly whimsical assets.

对于那些对 memecoin 感兴趣的人来说，Dogwifhat 等基于 Solana 的新项目正在蓬勃发展，提供了一个潜在有趣但有风险的投资机会。 memecoin 的整体市值为 615 亿美元，表明人们对这些看似异想天开的资产有着浓厚的兴趣。

In the nascent decentralized social media (DeSoc) space, Telegram's TON token is making waves. With a market capitalization of $17.5 billion, it has become the eighth-largest altcoin, excluding stablecoins.

在新兴的去中心化社交媒体 (DeSoc) 领域，Telegram 的 TON 代币正在掀起波澜。它的市值为 175 亿美元，已成为第八大山寨币（不包括稳定币）。

Finally, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) represent a growing trend in crypto finance and the wider fintech ecosystem. Ondo Finance and XDC are the largest projects in this category by market capitalization, although the overall sector remains relatively small at approximately $8 billion.

最后，代币化现实世界资产（RWA）代表了加密金融和更广泛的金融科技生态系统的增长趋势。 Ondo Finance 和 XDC 是该类别中市值最大的项目，尽管整个行业规模仍然相对较小，约为 80 亿美元。

Conclusion

结论

The cryptocurrency market is poised for a potential altcoin season, driven by historical patterns and a confluence of market dynamics. While the timing and exact catalysts remain uncertain, the potential for significant gains in this sector cannot be ignored. By carefully considering the key narratives and potential investment opportunities, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the upcoming altcoin season and reap its potential rewards.

在历史模式和市场动态的推动下，加密货币市场即将迎来一个潜在的山寨币季节。虽然时机和确切的催化剂仍不确定，但该行业大幅上涨的潜力不容忽视。通过仔细考虑关键叙述和潜在的投资机会，投资者可以利用即将到来的山寨币季节并获得其潜在回报。