山寨幣季節即將到來：歷史模式顯示看漲潮

作為主要的加密貨幣，比特幣引領了加密市場成長週期的趨勢。在比特幣最初上漲之後，山寨幣通常會獲得動力，特別是在減半事件之後。從歷史上看，這些時期見證了山寨幣價格的大幅上漲，新項目的推出、技術進步和投機活動推動了人們對山寨幣的關注。即將到來的 4 月 15 日比特幣減半可能會引發一系列類似的事件，促使分析師預測投資者準備抓住機會的山寨幣季節。

Altcoin Season on the Horizon: A Deep Dive into the Historical Patterns and Potential Catalysts

山寨幣季節即將到來：深入探討歷史模式和潛在催化劑

The cryptocurrency market has consistently adhered to a cyclical pattern, with Bitcoin (BTC), the dominant cryptocurrency, setting the initial trajectory. However, as the rally progresses, a shift occurs, and other cryptocurrencies, colloquially termed "altcoins," gain significant momentum.

加密貨幣市場始終遵循週期性模式，其中占主導地位的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）設定了最初的軌跡。然而，隨著反彈的進展，發生了轉變，其他加密貨幣（俗稱「山寨幣」）獲得了巨大的動力。

Historically, altcoin seasons have coincided with the Bitcoin halving event, a fixed halving of the Bitcoin block reward that occurs approximately every four years. During these periods, altcoins have experienced remarkable price appreciation, often surpassing Bitcoin's own gains. Driven by a combination of project launches, technological advancements, increasing utility, and speculation, altcoins have captured the market's attention, leading to a significant increase in their market share.

從歷史上看，山寨幣季節與比特幣減半事件同時發生，比特幣區塊獎勵大約每四年固定減半。在此期間，山寨幣的價格大幅上漲，往往超過了比特幣本身的漲幅。在專案啟動、技術進步、效用增加和投機的共同推動下，山寨幣吸引了市場的注意力，導致其市場份額大幅增加。

As we approach the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 15th, the cryptocurrency market appears to be following a similar trend. The halving is anticipated to trigger a chain of events analogous to those observed in previous halving cycles, particularly in 2020 and 2016. As Bitcoin's price fluctuates, analysts speculate that an altcoin season may be imminent, presenting investors with an opportune moment to capitalize on the potential gains.

隨著 4 月 15 日即將到來的比特幣減半事件臨近，加密貨幣市場似乎也遵循著類似的趨勢。預計減半將引發一系列類似於先前減半週期中觀察到的事件，特別是在2020 年和2016 年。隨著比特幣價格波動，分析師推測山寨幣季節可能即將到來，這為投資者提供了利用比特幣減半的絕佳時機。潛在的收益。

Historical Context of Altcoin Seasons

山寨幣季節的歷史背景

The first notable altcoin season occurred in late 2017. Bitcoin's market dominance plummeted from 83% at the beginning of the year to an all-time low of 32% in January 2018. Fueled by the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom, Ethereum (ETH) experienced an impressive surge, along with coins such as Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), and Stellar Lumens (XLM). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization soared from approximately $30 billion to over $600 billion during this period.

第一個值得注意的山寨幣季節出現在2017 年底。比特幣的市場主導地位從年初的83% 驟降到2018 年1 月的32% 的歷史低點。在首次代幣發行(ICO) 繁榮的推動下，以太幣(ETH) ）以及 Ripple (XRP)、Litecoin (LTC)、Cardano (ADA) 和 Stellar Lumens (XLM) 等代幣經歷了令人印象深刻的飆升。在此期間，加密貨幣總市值從約 300 億美元飆升至超過 6,000 億美元。

The second significant altcoin season emerged in 2021. Bitcoin's dominance fell from 70% to 38% within several months. This period was marked by a surge in the popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and memecoins. While Ethereum benefited from this growth, layer-2 solutions like Polygon (MATIC), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and the controversial Terra (LUNA) also gained traction. Memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) witnessed spectacular surges, demonstrating the potential of even seemingly whimsical assets. Notably, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion for the first time during this season.

第二個重要的山寨幣季節出現在 2021 年。比特幣的主導地位在幾個月內從 70% 下降到 38%。這段時期的特徵是去中心化金融（DeFi）、不可替代代幣（NFT）和迷因幣的流行。雖然以太坊受益於這種成長，但 Polygon (MATIC)、Binance Coin (BNB)、Solana (SOL) 和有爭議的 Terra (LUNA) 等 Layer-2 解決方案也獲得了關注。狗狗幣（DOGE）和柴犬幣（SHIB）等 Memecoin 見證了驚人的飆升，展示了看似異想天開的資產的潛力。值得注意的是，本季加密貨幣總市值首次突破 3 兆美元。

Market Analysis and Potential Timeline

市場分析和潛在時間表

Presently, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at $1.3 trillion, while other cryptocurrencies, collectively represented by Cryptocap's TOTAL2 index, account for $1.1 trillion. A comparison of Bitcoin's market capitalization to TOTAL2 since the depths of the 2019 bear market illustrates the interplay between these asset classes. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a surge in value a few months prior to the halving, followed by a period of decline or sideways movement before resuming its upward trajectory and reaching new highs. It is during this ascent that altcoins typically experience a significant rise.

目前，比特幣的市值為 1.3 兆美元，而以 Cryptocap 的 TOTAL2 指數為代表的其他加密貨幣的市值為 1.1 兆美元。自 2019 年熊市最深處以來，比特幣市值與 TOTAL2 的比較說明了這些資產類別之間的相互作用。從歷史上看，比特幣在減半前幾個月表現出價值飆升，隨後經歷一段時期的下跌或橫盤整理，然後恢復上升軌跡並達到新高。正是在這上升過程中，山寨幣通常會經歷大幅上漲。

Assuming that the current cycle adheres to previous patterns, the true altcoin season is projected to commence approximately a year from now. However, some analysts suggest that the timing may be accelerated this time around, considering that Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high last month, potentially shortening the overall cycle.

假設當前週期遵循以前的模式，真正的山寨幣季節預計將在大約一年後開始。然而，一些分析師表示，考慮到比特幣上個月才剛達到歷史新高，這次的時機可能會加快，可能會縮短整體週期。

Potential Altcoin Narratives in 2024

2024 年潛在的山寨幣故事

While the exact timing of the altcoin season remains uncertain, its arrival is highly probable. With that in mind, it can be beneficial to prepare a watchlist of key narratives that may drive the season and identify potential buying opportunities. This list encompasses both established and emerging cryptocurrencies, with the latter offering the potential for significant upside but also increased risk.

雖然山寨幣季節的確切時間仍不確定，但它的到來的可能性很高。考慮到這一點，準備一份可能推動季節發展並確定潛在購買機會的關鍵敘述的觀察清單可能是有益的。該清單涵蓋了成熟的和新興的加密貨幣，後者提供了巨大的上漲潛力，但也增加了風險。

Among the established altcoins that have consistently demonstrated relevance and resilience, Solana and Avalanche (AVAX) have emerged as formidable competitors to Ethereum and BNB in the general blockchain category.

在一貫表現出相關性和彈性的成熟山寨幣中，Solana 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 已成為一般區塊鏈類別中以太坊和 BNB 的強大競爭對手。

In the realm of specialized blockchains catering to the crypto gaming narrative, Immutable X and Ronin have established themselves as industry leaders. Coingecko estimates the market capitalization of this sector to be approximately $17 billion.

在迎合加密遊戲敘事的專業區塊鏈領域，Immutable X 和 Ronin 已經確立了自己的產業領導者地位。 Coingecko 估計該行業的市值約為 170 億美元。

Coins related to artificial intelligence (AI) are among the season's most promising newcomers. AGIX, Fetch.ai (FET), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) are leading players in this domain, with a collective market capitalization of $25 billion.

與人工智慧（AI）相關的硬幣是本季最有前途的新硬幣之一。 AGIX、Fetch.ai (FET) 和 Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) 是該領域的領先參與者，總市值達 250 億美元。

Decentralized infrastructure (DePIN) remains a growing sector, with Filecoin (FIL), Arweave (AR), and Chainlink (LINK) being some of the most notable protocols. The combined market capitalization of this sector is estimated to be around $30 billion.

去中心化基礎設施 (DePIN) 仍然是一個不斷成長的領域，其中 Filecoin (FIL)、Arweave (AR) 和 Chainlink (LINK) 是一些最著名的協定。該行業的總市值估計約為 300 億美元。

For those interested in memecoins, new Solana-based projects like Dogwifhat are gaining momentum, offering a potentially amusing yet risky investment opportunity. The overall memecoin market capitalization of $61.5 billion indicates the substantial interest in these seemingly whimsical assets.

對於那些對 memecoin 感興趣的人來說，Dogwifhat 等基於 Solana 的新項目正在蓬勃發展，提供了一個潛在有趣但有風險的投資機會。 memecoin 的整體市值為 615 億美元，顯示人們對這些看似異想天開的資產有著濃厚的興趣。

In the nascent decentralized social media (DeSoc) space, Telegram's TON token is making waves. With a market capitalization of $17.5 billion, it has become the eighth-largest altcoin, excluding stablecoins.

在新興的去中心化社群媒體 (DeSoc) 領域，Telegram 的 TON 代幣正在掀起波瀾。它的市值為 175 億美元，已成為第八大山寨幣（不包括穩定幣）。

Finally, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) represent a growing trend in crypto finance and the wider fintech ecosystem. Ondo Finance and XDC are the largest projects in this category by market capitalization, although the overall sector remains relatively small at approximately $8 billion.

最後，代幣化現實世界資產（RWA）代表了加密金融和更廣泛的金融科技生態系統的成長趨勢。 Ondo Finance 和 XDC 是該類別中市值最大的項目，儘管整個行業規模仍然相對較小，約為 80 億美元。

Conclusion

結論

The cryptocurrency market is poised for a potential altcoin season, driven by historical patterns and a confluence of market dynamics. While the timing and exact catalysts remain uncertain, the potential for significant gains in this sector cannot be ignored. By carefully considering the key narratives and potential investment opportunities, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the upcoming altcoin season and reap its potential rewards.

在歷史模式和市場動態的推動下，加密貨幣市場即將迎來一個潛在的山寨幣季節。雖然時機和確切的催化劑仍不確定，但該行業大幅上漲的潛力不容忽視。透過仔細考慮關鍵敘事和潛在的投資機會，投資者可以利用即將到來的山寨幣季節並獲得其潛在回報。