山寨币季节已经到来：HBAR、XRP、DOGE 跑赢比特币 (BTC)

进入 12 月之后，期待已久的山寨币季节即将到来。根据区块链中心的数据，山寨币季节指数读数触及 82 的 12 个月高点。

After a strong December showing, the altcoin season, which has been eagerly anticipated, has finally arrived.

经过 12 月份的强劲表现后，万众期待的山寨币季节终于到来。

The altcoin season index reading reached a 12-month high of 82, according to Blockchain Center data, strongly indicating an “alt season” rather than a Bitcoin [BTC] season.

根据区块链中心的数据，山寨币季节指数读数达到 82 的 12 个月高点，强烈表明“山寨币季节”而不是比特币 [BTC] 季节。

Top gainers – HBAR, XRP, DOGE

涨幅最大的股票——HBAR、XRP、DOGE

The high reading was a result of substantial pumps on major tokens like Ripple [XRP], Hedera [HBAR], Stellar [XLM], and Dogecoin [DOGE], which outperformed the king coin.

高读数是由于 Ripple [XRP]、Hedera [HBAR]、Stellar [XLM] 和 Dogecoin [DOGE] 等主要代币大幅上涨的结果，这些代币的表现优于王币。

HBAR has seen over 600% growth in the last 90 days, with XLM and XRP following closely behind at 515% and 402%, respectively. However, Ethereum [ETH] and Binance [BNB] both fell short of BTC.

HBAR 在过去 90 天内增长了 600% 以上，XLM 和 XRP 紧随其后，分别增长了 515% 和 402%。然而，以太坊 [ETH] 和币安 [BNB] 均低于 BTC。

The spectacular altcoin surge in November was fueled by a decrease in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D).

11 月份山寨币的惊人飙升是由于比特币主导地位（BTC.D）的下降而推动的。

On November 21st, BTC.D reached a peak of 60%, but it has since decreased to 54%, enabling the altcoin sector to flourish as capital flows from the king coin to other sectors.

11 月 21 日，BTC.D 达到 60% 的峰值，但此后已降至 54%，随着资金从王币流向其他领域，山寨币领域得以蓬勃发展。

In fact, if historical trends continue, the altcoin surge could continue. At the time of writing, OTHERS, which tracks the altcoin sector excluding the top 10 tokens, had been gaining ground against BTC over the past four weeks.

事实上，如果历史趋势继续下去，山寨币的飙升可能会持续下去。截至撰写本文时，追踪除前 10 名代币外的山寨币领域的 OTHERS 在过去四个星期内一直在相对 BTC 取得进展。

The ratio crossed a key 50-day Moving Average (MA) but was still far from overhead resistance, which halted the 2017 and 2021 rallies.

该比率穿越了关键的 50 日移动平均线 (MA)，但仍远离上方阻力位，该阻力位阻止了 2017 年和 2021 年的反弹。

OTHERS/BTC could aim for overhead resistance if history repeats, enabling the sector to rally further, especially if BTC dominance remains minimal.

如果历史重演，其他/BTC 可能会瞄准上方阻力位，从而使该行业进一步反弹，尤其是在 BTC 的主导地位仍然很小的情况下。

However, Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, warned that with more ETF players and institutions on BTC, the historical capital rotation to altcoins might not occur.

然而，CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 警告称，随着越来越多的 ETF 参与者和机构投资 BTC，历史性的资金转向山寨币的情况可能不会发生。

“This alt season won’t be what you anticipated It’ll be odd and difficult Only a select few will succeed in the game. The market mood is upbeat, but there isn’t much new liquidity.”

“这个另类赛季不会是你预期的那样，这会很奇怪，也很困难，只有少数人会在游戏中取得成功。市场情绪乐观，但没有太多新的流动性。”

Having said that, analysts have cautioned about a potential sell-the-news event during Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. If so, it might be critical to adjust risk management before the event to preserve capital.

话虽如此，分析师仍对 2025 年 1 月特朗普就职期间可能发生的抛售新闻事件发出警告。如果是这样，在事件发生前调整风险管理以保护资本可能至关重要。