Altcoin季节尚未到来，但是随着比特币步履蹒跚，市场参与者正在密切关注

诺伊达（Coinchapter.com） - 山寨币季节尚未到来，但是市场参与者在全球压力下比特币的步伐密切关注。达到峰值之后

Despite a strong start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) price faltered in April as global pressure mounted, halting any serious moves in altcoins.

尽管本年度的开端很强，但随着全球压力的增加，比特币（BTC）的价格在4月持续了下降，停止了Altcoins的任何严重举动。

After peaking at $110,000 in early 2025, Bitcoin price pulled back to nearly $84,000 by April 1. This selloff occurred amid escalating geopolitical tensions, which sparked renewed trade war fears.

在2025年初达到110,000美元的峰值之后，比特币价格在4月1日达到了近84,000美元。这种抛售发生在地缘政治紧张局势上升，这引起了新的贸易战争的恐惧。

President Donald Trump’s recent U.S. tariff announcements targeting Chinese and Mexican imports also triggered a broader market sell-off, with crypto markets absorbing much of the blow.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统最近针对中国和墨西哥进口的美国关税公告也引发了更广泛的市场抛售，加密货币市场吸引了很多打击。

While Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, altcoins struggled to gain traction. Historically, altcoin season begins when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies, pushing their prices higher relative to BTC. However, the current market structure suggests that capital remains risk-averse.

尽管比特币优势继续上升，但山寨币仍在努力获得吸引力。从历史上看，AltCoin季节始于资本从比特币旋转并转变为替代加密货币，相对于BTC的价格更高。但是，当前的市场结构表明资本仍然规避风险。

Investors appear to be positioning defensively, opting for the relative safety of Bitcoin while waiting for a clearer signal to rotate into altcoins.

投资者似乎在防御上定位，选择比特币的相对安全，同时等待更清晰的信号旋转到山寨币。

Capital Remains Benign to Bitcoin as ETH/BTC Extends Multi-Month Downtrend

由于ETH/BTC扩大了多个月的下降趋势，资本仍然对比特币保持良性

Bitcoin dominance sits at 62.3% and continues to climb.

比特币优势占62.3％，继续攀升。

The metric, which showcases the proportion of total market capitalization captured by Bitcoin, highlights that investors are allocating capital toward Bitcoin rather than alternative tokens.

该指标展示了比特币捕获的总市值的比例，他强调投资者正在将资本分配给比特币而不是替代令牌。

Since early February 2025, Bitcoin dominance has maintained a clear uptrend, with consistently higher lows and strong volume support. This trend shows no signs of slowing, further reinforcing that capital rotation into altcoins has yet to begin.

自2025年2月初以来，比特币优势一直保持着明显的上升趋势，低点和强大的体积支持。这种趋势没有放缓的迹象，进一步加强了资本旋转到山寨币尚未开始的迹象。

Relative weakness in Ethereum (ETH) price adds another layer to this outlook. The ETH/BTC pair has extended its multi-month downtrend, recently trading near 0.022 BTC.

以太坊（ETH）价格的相对弱点为这种前景增加了另一层。 ETH/BTC对已扩大了其多个月下降趋势，最近交易接近0.022 BTC。

Usually, the first altcoin to rally in a new cycle, Ethereum failed to hold any upside momentum against Bitcoin. It continues to form lower highs and lower lows, implying a lack of market confidence in ETH’s leadership.

通常，在新循环中首个集会的山寨币，以太坊未能对比特币保持任何上行势头。它继续形成较低的高点和较低的低点，这意味着对ETH领导的市场缺乏信心。

From the chart, Ethereum remains unlikely to ignite broader altcoin momentum without a breakout above the trendline resistance.

从图表中，以太坊仍然不太可能点燃更广泛的山寨币动量，而不会超出趋势线阻力。

Completing the broader outlook, Total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) weakened sharply since topping near $1.6 trillion in December. It now trades closer to $1 trillion, showing a prolonged consolidation with fast-decreasing volume.

完成更广泛的前景，总计市值不包括比特币（总计2）急剧减弱，因为12月的价格接近1.6万亿美元。现在，它的交易接近1万亿美元，显示了长时间的合并，量很快。

The same behavior appears in TOTAL3, which excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market capitalization has dropped to roughly $780 billion, nearly erasing its Q4 2024 gains. The decline suggests limited investor appetite for smaller-cap tokens.

在总计3中出现了相同的行为，不包括比特币和以太坊。市值已下降到约7800亿美元，几乎消除了其第二季度2024年收益。下降表明，对小型代币的投资者需求有限。

There is no technical evidence yet that altcoins are preparing for a rally. The price structures remain corrective, volume trends are weak, and capital flows favor Bitcoin as dominance increases.

尚无技术证据表明Altcoins正在为集会做准备。价格结构保持纠正，数量趋势较弱，并且随着优势的增加，资本流动有利于比特币。

Unless Bitcoin dominance reverses and ETH/BTC regains strength, the market remains firmly in Bitcoin’s control. In the short term, this signals that altcoin season appears to be postponed.

除非比特币优势逆转，而ETH/BTC恢复了实力，否则市场坚定地处于比特币的控制状态。在短期内，这个信号表明Altcoin季节似乎已被推迟。

Recent On-Chain Activity Has Nothing For Bulls Waiting For Altcoin Season

最近的链上活动对于公牛队等待替补赛季没有任何东西

Recent on-chain metrics highlight a market still operating under cautious conditions.

最近的链上指标突出了一个仍在谨慎的条件下运作的市场。

Tracking USDT net transfer volume across all exchanges showcases a consistent pattern of outflows throughout March. Several days recorded red bars exceeding $250 million, with the most aggressive outflows nearing $1 billion in a single day.

在所有交换中跟踪USDT净传输量，展示了整个3月流出的一致模式。几天的红色酒吧超过2.5亿美元，一天中最具侵略性的流出量接近10亿美元。

These sustained removals of Tether from exchanges suggest that investors have been exiting risk positions or transferring capital to private wallets. Rather than signaling imminent market entry, these movements point to a reduction in active trading.

这些持续的从交易所中的束缚撤离表明，投资者一直在退出风险职位或将资本转移到私人钱包。这些运动并没有发出迫在眉睫的市场进入，而是指出了积极交易的减少。

Although a brief inflow spike emerged at the end of March, it remains isolated and does not offset the broader outflow trend.

尽管在3月底出现了短暂的流入尖峰，但它仍然保持孤立，并不能抵消更广泛的流出趋势。

During altcoin-led bull phases, USDT floods exchanges as investors prepare to buy higher-risk assets. The absence of sustained inflows further weakens the case for an upcoming altcoin season.

在以山寨币为主导的牛阶段，投资者准备购买高风险资产时，USDT洪水交流。缺乏持续流入的流入进一步削弱了即将到来的Altcoin季节。

Highlighting a similar sentiment shift, USDC data from CryptoQuant reveals a striking decline in exchange reserves.

来自加密富裕的USDC数据强调了类似的情感转变，这表明交换储量的下降幅度显着下降。

As of April 1, Standard Chart shows a steep decrease in USDC reserves held on exchanges. Since mid-March alone, these reserves have fallen to nearly $5.2 billion.

截至4月1日，标准图显示了在交易所持有的USDC储量大幅下降。自3月中旬以来，这些储备金已降至近52亿美元。

This substantial reduction may indicate significant redemptions or large-scale capital deployment by institutions. However, the broader context suggests a continued wait-and-see approach, as it is not accompanied by corresponding inflows into altcoins or a surge in altcoin trading volume.

这种大量减少可能表明机构大量赎回或大规模的资本部署。但是，更广泛的背景表明，持续的等待方法，因为它并未伴随着相应的流入山寨币或山寨币交易量的激增。

Together, these metrics show no strong capital rotation forming in favor of altcoins. While some capital may be moving off exchanges for strategic reallocation, the overall signal from stablecoin activity is defensive.

这些指标共同表明，没有强大的资本旋转来支持Altcoins。尽管某些资本可能正在退出战略重新分配的交流，但Stablecoin活动的总体信号是防御性的。

Until these flows reverse and align with technical breakouts, the short-term outlook suggests that altcoin season is still unlikely.

在这些流动逆转并与技术突破保持一致之前，短期前景表明，Altcoin季节仍然不可能。