Altcoin季節尚未到來，但是隨著比特幣步履蹣跚，市場參與者正在密切關注

諾伊達（Coinchapter.com） - 山寨幣季節尚未到來，但是市場參與者在全球壓力下比特幣的步伐密切關注。達到峰值之後

Despite a strong start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) price faltered in April as global pressure mounted, halting any serious moves in altcoins.

儘管本年度的開端很強，但隨著全球壓力的增加，比特幣（BTC）的價格在4月持續了下降，停止了Altcoins的任何嚴重舉動。

After peaking at $110,000 in early 2025, Bitcoin price pulled back to nearly $84,000 by April 1. This selloff occurred amid escalating geopolitical tensions, which sparked renewed trade war fears.

在2025年初達到110,000美元的峰值之後，比特幣價格在4月1日達到了近84,000美元。這種拋售發生在地緣政治緊張局勢上升，這引起了新的貿易戰爭的恐懼。

President Donald Trump’s recent U.S. tariff announcements targeting Chinese and Mexican imports also triggered a broader market sell-off, with crypto markets absorbing much of the blow.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統最近針對中國和墨西哥進口的美國關稅公告也引發了更廣泛的市場拋售，加密貨幣市場吸引了很多打擊。

While Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, altcoins struggled to gain traction. Historically, altcoin season begins when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies, pushing their prices higher relative to BTC. However, the current market structure suggests that capital remains risk-averse.

儘管比特幣優勢繼續上升，但山寨幣仍在努力獲得吸引力。從歷史上看，AltCoin季節始於資本從比特幣旋轉並轉變為替代加密貨幣，相對於BTC的價格更高。但是，當前的市場結構表明資本仍然規避風險。

Investors appear to be positioning defensively, opting for the relative safety of Bitcoin while waiting for a clearer signal to rotate into altcoins.

投資者似乎在防禦上定位，選擇比特幣的相對安全，同時等待更清晰的信號旋轉到山寨幣。

Capital Remains Benign to Bitcoin as ETH/BTC Extends Multi-Month Downtrend

由於ETH/BTC擴大了多個月的下降趨勢，資本仍然對比特幣保持良性

Bitcoin dominance sits at 62.3% and continues to climb.

比特幣優勢佔62.3％，繼續攀升。

The metric, which showcases the proportion of total market capitalization captured by Bitcoin, highlights that investors are allocating capital toward Bitcoin rather than alternative tokens.

該指標展示了比特幣捕獲的總市值的比例，他強調投資者正在將資本分配給比特幣而不是替代令牌。

Since early February 2025, Bitcoin dominance has maintained a clear uptrend, with consistently higher lows and strong volume support. This trend shows no signs of slowing, further reinforcing that capital rotation into altcoins has yet to begin.

自2025年2月初以來，比特幣優勢一直保持著明顯的上升趨勢，低點和強大的體積支持。這種趨勢沒有放緩的跡象，進一步加強了資本旋轉到山寨幣尚未開始的跡象。

Relative weakness in Ethereum (ETH) price adds another layer to this outlook. The ETH/BTC pair has extended its multi-month downtrend, recently trading near 0.022 BTC.

以太坊（ETH）價格的相對弱點為這種前景增加了另一層。 ETH/BTC對已擴大了其多個月下降趨勢，最近交易接近0.022 BTC。

Usually, the first altcoin to rally in a new cycle, Ethereum failed to hold any upside momentum against Bitcoin. It continues to form lower highs and lower lows, implying a lack of market confidence in ETH’s leadership.

通常，在新循環中首個集會的山寨幣，以太坊未能對比特幣保持任何上行勢頭。它繼續形成較低的高點和較低的低點，這意味著對ETH領導的市場缺乏信心。

From the chart, Ethereum remains unlikely to ignite broader altcoin momentum without a breakout above the trendline resistance.

從圖表中，以太坊仍然不太可能點燃更廣泛的山寨幣動量，而不會超出趨勢線阻力。

Completing the broader outlook, Total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) weakened sharply since topping near $1.6 trillion in December. It now trades closer to $1 trillion, showing a prolonged consolidation with fast-decreasing volume.

完成更廣泛的前景，總計市值不包括比特幣（總計2）急劇減弱，因為12月的價格接近1.6萬億美元。現在，它的交易接近1萬億美元，顯示了長時間的合併，量很快。

The same behavior appears in TOTAL3, which excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market capitalization has dropped to roughly $780 billion, nearly erasing its Q4 2024 gains. The decline suggests limited investor appetite for smaller-cap tokens.

在總計3中出現了相同的行為，不包括比特幣和以太坊。市值已下降到約7800億美元，幾乎消除了其第二季度2024年收益。下降表明，對小型代幣的投資者需求有限。

There is no technical evidence yet that altcoins are preparing for a rally. The price structures remain corrective, volume trends are weak, and capital flows favor Bitcoin as dominance increases.

尚無技術證據表明Altcoins正在為集會做準備。價格結構保持糾正，數量趨勢較弱，並且隨著優勢的增加，資本流動有利於比特幣。

Unless Bitcoin dominance reverses and ETH/BTC regains strength, the market remains firmly in Bitcoin’s control. In the short term, this signals that altcoin season appears to be postponed.

除非比特幣優勢逆轉，而ETH/BTC恢復了實力，否則市場堅定地處於比特幣的控制狀態。在短期內，這個信號表明Altcoin季節似乎已被推遲。

Recent On-Chain Activity Has Nothing For Bulls Waiting For Altcoin Season

最近的鏈上活動對於公牛隊等待替補賽季沒有任何東西

Recent on-chain metrics highlight a market still operating under cautious conditions.

最近的鏈上指標突出了一個仍在謹慎的條件下運作的市場。

Tracking USDT net transfer volume across all exchanges showcases a consistent pattern of outflows throughout March. Several days recorded red bars exceeding $250 million, with the most aggressive outflows nearing $1 billion in a single day.

在所有交換中跟踪USDT淨傳輸量，展示了整個3月流出的一致模式。幾天的紅色酒吧超過2.5億美元，一天中最具侵略性的流出量接近10億美元。

These sustained removals of Tether from exchanges suggest that investors have been exiting risk positions or transferring capital to private wallets. Rather than signaling imminent market entry, these movements point to a reduction in active trading.

這些持續的從交易所中的束縛撤離表明，投資者一直在退出風險職位或將資本轉移到私人錢包。這些運動並沒有發出迫在眉睫的市場進入，而是指出了積極交易的減少。

Although a brief inflow spike emerged at the end of March, it remains isolated and does not offset the broader outflow trend.

儘管在3月底出現了短暫的流入尖峰，但它仍然保持孤立，並不能抵消更廣泛的流出趨勢。

During altcoin-led bull phases, USDT floods exchanges as investors prepare to buy higher-risk assets. The absence of sustained inflows further weakens the case for an upcoming altcoin season.

在以山寨幣為主導的牛階段，投資者準備購買高風險資產時，USDT洪水交流。缺乏持續流入的流入進一步削弱了即將到來的Altcoin季節。

Highlighting a similar sentiment shift, USDC data from CryptoQuant reveals a striking decline in exchange reserves.

來自加密富裕的USDC數據強調了類似的情感轉變，這表明交換儲量的下降幅度顯著下降。

As of April 1, Standard Chart shows a steep decrease in USDC reserves held on exchanges. Since mid-March alone, these reserves have fallen to nearly $5.2 billion.

截至4月1日，標準圖顯示了在交易所持有的USDC儲量大幅下降。自3月中旬以來，這些儲備金已降至近52億美元。

This substantial reduction may indicate significant redemptions or large-scale capital deployment by institutions. However, the broader context suggests a continued wait-and-see approach, as it is not accompanied by corresponding inflows into altcoins or a surge in altcoin trading volume.

這種大量減少可能表明機構大量贖回或大規模的資本部署。但是，更廣泛的背景表明，持續的等待方法，因為它並未伴隨著相應的流入山寨幣或山寨幣交易量的激增。

Together, these metrics show no strong capital rotation forming in favor of altcoins. While some capital may be moving off exchanges for strategic reallocation, the overall signal from stablecoin activity is defensive.

這些指標共同表明，沒有強大的資本旋轉來支持Altcoins。儘管某些資本可能正在退出戰略重新分配的交流，但Stablecoin活動的總體信號是防禦性的。

Until these flows reverse and align with technical breakouts, the short-term outlook suggests that altcoin season is still unlikely.

在這些流動逆轉並與技術突破保持一致之前，短期前景表明，Altcoin季節仍然不可能。