Altcoin季节指数：尚未在“ Alt季节”领域

在2024年第三季度的大部分时间里，比特币已经观看了其市值气球，并达到了新的高点。

Bitcoin’s dominance has been a key topic of discussion in the crypto community throughout 2024. While BTC has hit new highs, altcoins have lagged behind, leading to questions about the capital rotation and the possibility of an altcoin season.

整个2024年，比特币的统治地位一直是加密社区中讨论的关键主题。尽管BTC击中了新的高点，但Altcoins却落后了，导致了有关资本轮换和Altcoin赛季的可能性的疑问。

Here's a closer look at the altcoin market performance and analysis from crypto influencers.

这是对加密影响者的Altcoin市场绩效和分析的仔细研究。

Altcoin Season Index: Not Yet in ‘Alt Season’ Territory

Altcoin季节指数：尚未在“ ALT季节”领域

The Altcoin Season Index, a metric that tracks market cycles to gauge the market's dominant phase, is currently at 26. This index is used to determine whether the market is in a Bitcoin-dominated or altcoin-dominated phase. An altcoin season is typically defined as a period where altcoins collectively outperform Bitcoin by a significant margin.

AltCoin季节指数是一个跟踪市场周期以衡量市场主要阶段的度量，目前为26。该指数用于确定市场是否处于比特币主导的阶段或替代币为主导的阶段。 AltCoin季节通常定义为AltCoins统称比比特币高出显着的时期。

According to the index, the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated phase, as a reading of 75 or higher is generally considered to be the threshold for an altcoin-dominated market. However, this index could shift rapidly if Bitcoin begins to stabilize or decline, potentially sparking a rotation into altcoins.

根据该指数，市场仍处于比特币主导的阶段，因为通常认为75或更高的读数被认为是替代币主导的市场的门槛。但是，如果比特币开始稳定或下降，该指数可能会迅速转移，可能会旋转到Altcoins。

Is Altcoin Season Imminent? A Closer Look at the Analysis

Altcoin季节即将到来吗？仔细研究分析

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju took to Twitter to share his perspective on the altcoin market, describing it as a “zero-sum PvP game” and highlighting the lack of fresh capital inflows.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju上了Twitter，分享了他对Altcoin市场的看法，称其为“零和PVP游戏”，并强调了缺乏新的资本流入。

According to Ju, only a handful of projects with real use cases will reach new all-time highs in this cycle, while the rest will likely experience peaks and troughs as assets rotate among themselves. He further adds that there is no “alt season” in the absence of new capital entering the market.

根据JU的说法，在此周期中，只有少数具有实际用例的项目才能达到新的历史高潮，而随着资产互助，其余的可能会遇到峰值和低谷。他进一步补充说，在没有新资本进入市场的情况下，没有“ ALT季节”。

Despite this observation, some crypto influencers anticipate an imminent altcoin breakout. Crypto Rover, a popular crypto analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s bull run is “80% complete,” with the remaining 20% expected to be the most volatile.

尽管有这一观察结果，但一些加密影响者预计即将出现的Altcoin突破。受欢迎的加密分析师Crypto Rover表示，比特币的公牛运行是“ 80％的完整”，其余20％的预计将是最动荡的。

According to the analysis, altcoins have historically rallied after Bitcoin reaches its cycle top, suggesting that a shift might be on the horizon. However, it's important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

根据分析，在比特币达到其周期顶部之后，山寨币历史上已经集结，这表明可能会发生变化。但是，重要的是要注意，过去的绩效不能保证未来的结果。

Golden Cross: A Historically Bullish Sign for Altcoins

黄金十字：历史上看涨山寨币的标志

Crypto analyst Ted highlighted the altcoin market cap achieving its first golden cross since early 2021. A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, and it is widely considered to be a bullish technical formation.

加密分析师TED强调了Altcoin市值，这是自2021年初以来达到其第一个黄金十字架。当50天移动平均线超过200天移动平均线时，发生了一个黄金十字架，并且被广泛认为是看涨的技术形式。

In the context of the altcoin market, a golden cross typically signifies a strong uptrend. Notably, the last golden cross in early 2021 was followed by a 500% surge in altcoin market capitalization within a few months.

在Altcoin市场的背景下，黄金十字架通常表示强大的上升趋势。值得注意的是，2021年初的最后一十字十字架之后，几个月内，Altcoin市值增加了500％。

Meanwhile, Crypto Goos reinforced this sentiment, stating that “altcoin season will make a huge comeback,” predicting that investors could see “big gains” soon. However, it's crucial to remember that crypto markets are inherently volatile, and any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

同时，加密鹅鹅增强了这种观点，并指出“ Altcoin季节将造成巨大的卷土重来”，预测投资者很快就会看到“最大收益”。但是，要记住加密货币市场本质上是波动的，这一点至关重要，任何盐都应做出任何预测。