Altcoin Season Index: Not Yet in “Alt Season” Territory

For the better part of 2024's third quarter, Bitcoin has watched its market capitalization balloon, hitting new highs.

Bitcoin’s dominance has been a key topic of discussion in the crypto community throughout 2024. While BTC has hit new highs, altcoins have lagged behind, leading to questions about the capital rotation and the possibility of an altcoin season.

Here's a closer look at the altcoin market performance and analysis from crypto influencers.

Altcoin Season Index: Not Yet in ‘Alt Season’ Territory

The Altcoin Season Index, a metric that tracks market cycles to gauge the market's dominant phase, is currently at 26. This index is used to determine whether the market is in a Bitcoin-dominated or altcoin-dominated phase. An altcoin season is typically defined as a period where altcoins collectively outperform Bitcoin by a significant margin.

According to the index, the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated phase, as a reading of 75 or higher is generally considered to be the threshold for an altcoin-dominated market. However, this index could shift rapidly if Bitcoin begins to stabilize or decline, potentially sparking a rotation into altcoins.

Is Altcoin Season Imminent? A Closer Look at the Analysis

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju took to Twitter to share his perspective on the altcoin market, describing it as a “zero-sum PvP game” and highlighting the lack of fresh capital inflows.

According to Ju, only a handful of projects with real use cases will reach new all-time highs in this cycle, while the rest will likely experience peaks and troughs as assets rotate among themselves. He further adds that there is no “alt season” in the absence of new capital entering the market.

Despite this observation, some crypto influencers anticipate an imminent altcoin breakout. Crypto Rover, a popular crypto analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s bull run is “80% complete,” with the remaining 20% expected to be the most volatile.

According to the analysis, altcoins have historically rallied after Bitcoin reaches its cycle top, suggesting that a shift might be on the horizon. However, it's important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Golden Cross: A Historically Bullish Sign for Altcoins

Crypto analyst Ted highlighted the altcoin market cap achieving its first golden cross since early 2021. A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, and it is widely considered to be a bullish technical formation.

In the context of the altcoin market, a golden cross typically signifies a strong uptrend. Notably, the last golden cross in early 2021 was followed by a 500% surge in altcoin market capitalization within a few months.

Meanwhile, Crypto Goos reinforced this sentiment, stating that “altcoin season will make a huge comeback,” predicting that investors could see “big gains” soon. However, it's crucial to remember that crypto markets are inherently volatile, and any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.