Altcoin季節指數：尚未在“ Alt季節”領域

在2024年第三季度的大部分時間裡，比特幣已經觀看了其市值氣球，並達到了新的高點。

Bitcoin’s dominance has been a key topic of discussion in the crypto community throughout 2024. While BTC has hit new highs, altcoins have lagged behind, leading to questions about the capital rotation and the possibility of an altcoin season.

整個2024年，比特幣的統治地位一直是加密社區中討論的關鍵主題。儘管BTC擊中了新的高點，但Altcoins卻落後了，導致了有關資本輪換和Altcoin賽季的可能性的疑問。

Here's a closer look at the altcoin market performance and analysis from crypto influencers.

這是對加密影響者的Altcoin市場績效和分析的仔細研究。

Altcoin Season Index: Not Yet in ‘Alt Season’ Territory

Altcoin季節指數：尚未在“ ALT季節”領域

The Altcoin Season Index, a metric that tracks market cycles to gauge the market's dominant phase, is currently at 26. This index is used to determine whether the market is in a Bitcoin-dominated or altcoin-dominated phase. An altcoin season is typically defined as a period where altcoins collectively outperform Bitcoin by a significant margin.

AltCoin季節指數是一個跟踪市場週期以衡量市場主要階段的度量，目前為26。該指數用於確定市場是否處於比特幣主導的階段或替代幣為主導的階段。 AltCoin季節通常定義為AltCoins統稱比比特幣高出顯著的時期。

According to the index, the market is still in a Bitcoin-dominated phase, as a reading of 75 or higher is generally considered to be the threshold for an altcoin-dominated market. However, this index could shift rapidly if Bitcoin begins to stabilize or decline, potentially sparking a rotation into altcoins.

根據該指數，市場仍處於比特幣主導的階段，因為通常認為75或更高的讀數被認為是替代幣主導的市場的門檻。但是，如果比特幣開始穩定或下降，該指數可能會迅速轉移，可能會旋轉到Altcoins。

Is Altcoin Season Imminent? A Closer Look at the Analysis

Altcoin季節即將到來嗎？仔細研究分析

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju took to Twitter to share his perspective on the altcoin market, describing it as a “zero-sum PvP game” and highlighting the lack of fresh capital inflows.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju上了Twitter，分享了他對Altcoin市場的看法，稱其為“零和PVP遊戲”，並強調了缺乏新的資本流入。

According to Ju, only a handful of projects with real use cases will reach new all-time highs in this cycle, while the rest will likely experience peaks and troughs as assets rotate among themselves. He further adds that there is no “alt season” in the absence of new capital entering the market.

根據JU的說法，在此週期中，只有少數具有實際用例的項目才能達到新的歷史高潮，而隨著資產互助，其餘的可能會遇到峰值和低谷。他進一步補充說，在沒有新資本進入市場的情況下，沒有“ ALT季節”。

Despite this observation, some crypto influencers anticipate an imminent altcoin breakout. Crypto Rover, a popular crypto analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s bull run is “80% complete,” with the remaining 20% expected to be the most volatile.

儘管有這一觀察結果，但一些加密影響者預計即將出現的Altcoin突破。受歡迎的加密分析師Crypto Rover表示，比特幣的公牛運行是“ 80％的完整”，其餘20％的預計將是最動蕩的。

According to the analysis, altcoins have historically rallied after Bitcoin reaches its cycle top, suggesting that a shift might be on the horizon. However, it's important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

根據分析，在比特幣達到其周期頂部之後，山寨幣歷史上已經集結，這表明可能會發生變化。但是，重要的是要注意，過去的績效不能保證未來的結果。

Golden Cross: A Historically Bullish Sign for Altcoins

黃金十字：歷史上看漲山寨幣的標誌

Crypto analyst Ted highlighted the altcoin market cap achieving its first golden cross since early 2021. A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, and it is widely considered to be a bullish technical formation.

加密分析師TED強調了Altcoin市值，這是自2021年初以來達到其第一個黃金十字架。當50天移動平均線超過200天移動平均線時，發生了一個黃金十字架，並且被廣泛認為是看漲的技術形式。

In the context of the altcoin market, a golden cross typically signifies a strong uptrend. Notably, the last golden cross in early 2021 was followed by a 500% surge in altcoin market capitalization within a few months.

在Altcoin市場的背景下，黃金十字架通常表示強大的上升趨勢。值得注意的是，2021年初的最後一十字十字架之後，幾個月內，Altcoin市值增加了500％。

Meanwhile, Crypto Goos reinforced this sentiment, stating that “altcoin season will make a huge comeback,” predicting that investors could see “big gains” soon. However, it's crucial to remember that crypto markets are inherently volatile, and any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

同時，加密鵝鵝增強了這種觀點，並指出“ Altcoin季節將造成巨大的捲土重來”，預測投資者很快就會看到“最大收益”。但是，要記住加密貨幣市場本質上是波動的，這一點至關重要，任何鹽都應做出任何預測。