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山寨币市场可能正在为大幅上涨做好准备,有迹象表明新的山寨币季节可能会开始。
Altcoins might be gearing up for a significant rally as several indicators point to the potential start of a new altcoin season. After a period of lagging performance, altcoins could be set for a resurgence as several indicators point towards a shift in momentum.
由于多项指标表明新的山寨币季节可能开始,山寨币可能正在准备大幅上涨。经过一段时间的表现滞后后,随着多项指标表明势头发生转变,山寨币可能会复苏。
Traders and investors are watching closely as the Altcoin Season Index (SSI) reaches its lowest point since early September, signaling a possible turning point in the narrative.
交易员和投资者正在密切关注山寨币季节指数 (SSI) 触及 9 月初以来的最低点,这预示着市场可能出现转折点。
Meanwhile, the rising popularity of narratives around artificial intelligence (AI) and memes, and the potential breakout of key resistance levels in the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) further fuel optimism about the altcoin market.
与此同时,围绕人工智能(AI)和迷因的叙事日益流行,以及不包括比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)的加密货币总市值可能突破关键阻力位,进一步加剧了人们对山寨币市场的乐观情绪。
Altcoin Season Index Nears a Rebound
山寨币季节指数接近反弹
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the percentage of altcoins outperforming BTC, has dropped to a low not seen since early September. This decline, despite Bitcoin’s recent rally from $60,000 to $68,000, presents an opportunity for altcoins to stage a comeback.
衡量山寨币表现优于 BTC 的百分比的山寨币季节指数已降至 9 月初以来的最低水平。尽管比特币最近从 60,000 美元上涨至 68,000 美元,但这种下跌为山寨币提供了卷土重来的机会。
BTC Price vs Percentage of Altcoins Outperforming BTC. Source: Santiment
BTC 价格与表现优于 BTC 的山寨币百分比。资料来源:Santiment
Typically, when BTC experiences a surge, the Altcoin Season Index also rises. The current divergence, where Bitcoin’s performance has outpaced altcoins, might indicate that the altcoin market is overdue for a rebound.
通常,当 BTC 经历飙升时,山寨币季节指数也会上涨。当前的差异,即比特币的表现已经超过了山寨币,可能表明山寨币市场早就该反弹了。
A similar pattern in mid-September saw the index jump from below 5% to over 90%, sparking hopes of a potential repeat. If altcoins begin to outperform BTC again, a strong rally could follow.
9 月中旬出现了类似的情况,该指数从 5% 以下跃升至 90% 以上,引发了可能重演的希望。如果山寨币的表现再次超过比特币,那么强劲的反弹可能会随之而来。
Rising Narratives: AI and Memes Lead the Charge
新兴叙事:人工智能和模因引领潮流
Two major themes are currently driving the altcoin landscape: artificial intelligence (AI) and meme coins. Memes hold 32% of market attention, while AI captures 21.84%, indicating that traders are seeking culturally resonant coins that can generate viral enthusiasm.
目前推动山寨币格局的两大主题是:人工智能(AI)和迷因币。 Meme 占据了 32% 的市场关注度,而 AI 占据了 21.84%,这表明交易者正在寻找能够产生病毒式传播热情的文化共鸣币。
Beyond these, other narratives like GameFi and DeFi remain relevant, though they account for smaller shares of mindshare, at 11.39% and 7.52%, respectively. As these narratives gain popularity, they point to a market that is exploring new opportunities and experimenting with high-potential projects. This growing interest in unique altcoin projects over more established assets like BTC and ETH highlights the sector’s potential for applications and significant returns.
除此之外,GameFi 和 DeFi 等其他叙事仍然具有相关性,尽管它们所占的思维份额较小,分别为 11.39% 和 7.52%。随着这些叙述越来越受欢迎,它们指出了一个正在探索新机会并尝试高潜力项目的市场。人们对独特的山寨币项目的兴趣超过了 BTC 和 ETH 等更成熟的资产,这突显了该行业的应用潜力和可观的回报。
Altcoin Season Hinges on Market Cap Movements
山寨币季节取决于市值变动
The crypto market cap, excluding BTC and ETH, currently stands at $624.013 billion, down from a high of $777 billion in April. However, this contraction opens the door for a reversal.
不包括 BTC 和 ETH 的加密货币市值目前为 6240.13 亿美元,低于 4 月份 7770 亿美元的高点。然而,这种收缩为逆转打开了大门。
The total market cap is approaching a key resistance at $644 billion, a level it failed to break in late September. If this resistance is breached, the altcoin market could see a rally, with potential targets for the market cap being $660 billion, $709 billion, or even $740 billion.
总市值正逼近 6,440 亿美元的关键阻力位,该水平在 9 月底未能突破。如果突破这一阻力位,山寨币市场可能会出现反弹,市值的潜在目标为 6600 亿美元、7090 亿美元,甚至 7400 亿美元。
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