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山寨幣市場可能正在為大幅上漲做好準備,有跡象表明新的山寨幣季節可能會開始。
Altcoins might be gearing up for a significant rally as several indicators point to the potential start of a new altcoin season. After a period of lagging performance, altcoins could be set for a resurgence as several indicators point towards a shift in momentum.
由於多個指標表明新的山寨幣季節可能開始,山寨幣可能正在準備大幅上漲。經過一段時間的表現落後後,隨著多個指標顯示勢頭發生轉變,山寨幣可能會復甦。
Traders and investors are watching closely as the Altcoin Season Index (SSI) reaches its lowest point since early September, signaling a possible turning point in the narrative.
交易員和投資者正在密切關注山寨幣季節指數 (SSI) 觸及 9 月初以來的最低點,這預示著市場可能出現轉折點。
Meanwhile, the rising popularity of narratives around artificial intelligence (AI) and memes, and the potential breakout of key resistance levels in the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) further fuel optimism about the altcoin market.
同時,圍繞人工智慧(AI)和迷因的敘事日益流行,以及不包括比特幣(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)的加密貨幣總市值可能突破關鍵阻力位,進一步加劇了人們對山寨幣市場的樂觀情緒。
Altcoin Season Index Nears a Rebound
山寨幣季節指數接近反彈
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the percentage of altcoins outperforming BTC, has dropped to a low not seen since early September. This decline, despite Bitcoin’s recent rally from $60,000 to $68,000, presents an opportunity for altcoins to stage a comeback.
衡量山寨幣表現優於 BTC 的百分比的山寨幣季節指數已降至 9 月初以來的最低水平。儘管比特幣最近從 6 萬美元上漲至 6.8 萬美元,但這種下跌為山寨幣提供了捲土重來的機會。
BTC Price vs Percentage of Altcoins Outperforming BTC. Source: Santiment
BTC 價格與表現優於 BTC 的山寨幣百分比。資料來源:Santiment
Typically, when BTC experiences a surge, the Altcoin Season Index also rises. The current divergence, where Bitcoin’s performance has outpaced altcoins, might indicate that the altcoin market is overdue for a rebound.
通常,當 BTC 經歷飆升時,山寨幣季節指數也會上漲。目前的差異,即比特幣的表現已經超過了山寨幣,可能表明山寨幣市場早就該反彈了。
A similar pattern in mid-September saw the index jump from below 5% to over 90%, sparking hopes of a potential repeat. If altcoins begin to outperform BTC again, a strong rally could follow.
9 月中旬出現了類似的情況,該指數從 5% 以下躍升至 90% 以上,引發了可能重演的希望。如果山寨幣的表現再次超過比特幣,那麼強勁的反彈可能會隨之而來。
Rising Narratives: AI and Memes Lead the Charge
新興敘事:人工智慧和迷因引領潮流
Two major themes are currently driving the altcoin landscape: artificial intelligence (AI) and meme coins. Memes hold 32% of market attention, while AI captures 21.84%, indicating that traders are seeking culturally resonant coins that can generate viral enthusiasm.
目前推動山寨幣格局的兩大主題是:人工智慧(AI)和迷因幣。 Meme 佔據了 32% 的市場關注度,而 AI 佔了 21.84%,這表明交易者正在尋找能夠產生病毒式傳播熱情的文化共鳴幣。
Beyond these, other narratives like GameFi and DeFi remain relevant, though they account for smaller shares of mindshare, at 11.39% and 7.52%, respectively. As these narratives gain popularity, they point to a market that is exploring new opportunities and experimenting with high-potential projects. This growing interest in unique altcoin projects over more established assets like BTC and ETH highlights the sector’s potential for applications and significant returns.
除此之外,GameFi 和 DeFi 等其他敘事仍然具有相關性,儘管它們所佔的思維份額較小,分別為 11.39% 和 7.52%。隨著這些敘述越來越受歡迎,它們指出了一個正在探索新機會並嘗試高潛力項目的市場。人們對獨特的山寨幣計畫的興趣超過了 BTC 和 ETH 等更成熟的資產,這突顯了該行業的應用潛力和可觀的回報。
Altcoin Season Hinges on Market Cap Movements
山寨幣季節取決於市值變動
The crypto market cap, excluding BTC and ETH, currently stands at $624.013 billion, down from a high of $777 billion in April. However, this contraction opens the door for a reversal.
不包括 BTC 和 ETH 的加密貨幣市值目前為 6,240.13 億美元,低於 4 月 7,770 億美元的高點。然而,這種收縮為逆轉打開了大門。
The total market cap is approaching a key resistance at $644 billion, a level it failed to break in late September. If this resistance is breached, the altcoin market could see a rally, with potential targets for the market cap being $660 billion, $709 billion, or even $740 billion.
總市值正逼近 6,440 億美元的關鍵阻力位,該水準在 9 月底未能突破。如果突破這一阻力位,山寨幣市場可能會反彈,市值的潛在目標為 6,600 億美元、7,090 億美元,甚至 7,400 億美元。
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