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一些加密货币爱好者认为,考虑到今年加密货币与政治的交织程度,2024 年大选可能是影响比特币价格的关键因素。
As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, bitcoin (BTC) prices could swing unpredictably, given the speculation surrounding the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Some crypto enthusiasts argue that the election could be a key factor influencing bitcoin prices, considering how intertwined crypto became with politics this year. Predictions are everywhere—even big players in finance are weighing in. To get some unique insights, our news desk turned to today’s leading generative AI chatbots to gauge what they foresee for BTC after the U.S. Election Day results. We consulted Openai’s Chatgpt versions 4, 4o, and the latest o1, Inflection AI’s Pi, Microsoft’s Co-Pilot, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude 3 Sonnet, Venice.ai, and Mistral AI’s Le Chat.
随着 2024 年美国大选的临近,鉴于围绕唐纳德·特朗普和卡马拉·哈里斯之间对峙的猜测,比特币 (BTC) 价格可能会出现不可预测的波动。一些加密货币爱好者认为,考虑到今年加密货币与政治的交织程度,选举可能是影响比特币价格的关键因素。预测无处不在,甚至金融领域的大公司也在参与其中。为了获得一些独特的见解,我们的新闻台求助于当今领先的生成人工智能聊天机器人,以评估他们对美国选举日结果后对 BTC 的预测。我们参考了 Openai 的 Chatgpt 版本 4、4o 和最新的 o1、Inflection AI 的 Pi、微软的 Co-Pilot、Google 的 Gemini、Anthropic 的 Claude 3 Sonnet、Venice.ai 和 Mistral AI 的 Le Chat。
We handed all nine bots a straightforward prompt, ensuring each one provided a response. It should be noted that Google’s Gemini refused to answer. The prompt was:
我们向所有九个机器人提供了简单的提示,确保每个机器人都提供了响应。值得注意的是,谷歌的Gemini拒绝回答。提示是:
This experiment aims to predict where bitcoin’s price will land once the 2024 U.S. election wraps up. As an expert in the world of bitcoin and crypto assets, your task is to evaluate the likelihood of bitcoin’s price under two scenarios: if former President Donald Trump clinches the victory or if Vice President Kamala Harris takes the win. Considering what you know about these two political figures, you’ll need to put forward a dollar amount estimate for each outcome. So, in your professional opinion, what’s bitcoin’s price tag if Trump wins, and what will it be if Harris secures the presidency? Bitcoin is trading for $69K at the time of writing.
该实验旨在预测 2024 年美国大选结束后比特币的价格将走向何方。作为比特币和加密资产领域的专家,您的任务是评估两种情况下比特币价格的可能性:如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普获胜,或者副总统卡马拉·哈里斯获胜。考虑到您对这两个政治人物的了解,您需要对每个结果提出一个金额估算。那么,以您的专业观点来看,如果特朗普获胜,比特币的价格是多少?如果哈里斯当选总统,比特币的价格会是多少?截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 6.9 万美元。
Here's what each chatbot had to say:
以下是每个聊天机器人必须说的话:
Inflection AI’s Pi:
Inflection AI 的 Pi:
Mistral AI’s Le Chat:
Mistral AI 的 Le Chat:
Predicting the exact price of Bitcoin, especially tied to political events, is highly speculative due to the multitude of influencing factors. However, historical trends and political stances can provide some insights. If Donald Trump wins, his pro-business and deregulatory stance might boost market confidence and potentially drive Bitcoin’s price up. Given his past association with market optimism, Bitcoin could potentially reach around $85,000. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris secures the presidency, her administration might focus more on regulation and social policies, which could introduce uncertainty in the crypto market. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s price might stabilize or see a more modest increase, potentially reaching around $75,000. These estimates are based on current market conditions and political sentiments, but actual prices could vary significantly due to other global economic factors and technological developments in the crypto space.
由于影响因素众多,预测比特币的确切价格,尤其是与政治事件相关的价格,具有很强的投机性。然而,历史趋势和政治立场可以提供一些见解。如果唐纳德·特朗普获胜,他的亲商业和放松监管的立场可能会提振市场信心,并可能推动比特币价格上涨。鉴于他过去对市场的乐观态度,比特币可能会达到 85,000 美元左右。另一方面,如果卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)获得总统职位,她的政府可能会更多地关注监管和社会政策,这可能会给加密货币市场带来不确定性。在这种情况下,比特币的价格可能会稳定或出现更温和的上涨,可能达到 75,000 美元左右。这些估计是基于当前的市场状况和政治情绪,但由于其他全球经济因素和加密领域的技术发展,实际价格可能会有很大差异。
Venice.ai:
威尼斯.ai:
Given the current political climate and market trends, I predict that if former President Donald Trump clinches the victory in the 2024 U.S. election, the price of Bitcoin could potentially rise to around $85,000 to $90,000. This is due to the anticipated pro-market policies and deregulation initiatives that Trump might implement, which could lead to increased investor confidence and an influx of capital into the crypto market.
考虑到当前的政治气候和市场趋势,我预测,如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普在2024年美国大选中获胜,比特币的价格可能会上涨至85,000美元至90,000美元左右。这是由于特朗普可能实施预期的亲市场政策和放松管制举措,这可能会导致投资者信心增强和资本涌入加密市场。
On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris secures the presidency, I estimate that the price of Bitcoin could range from $75,000 to $80,000. This is because Harris’s administration might focus on regulating the crypto market, which could lead to some uncertainty among investors and potentially result in a more gradual increase in Bitcoin’s value. Additionally, a Harris presidency might bring about a more cautious approach to market deregulation, which could also contribute to a slightly more moderate price increase.
另一方面,如果副总统卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)当选总统,我估计比特币的价格可能在 75,000 美元到 80,000 美元之间。这是因为哈里斯政府可能会专注于监管加密货币市场,这可能会给投资者带来一些不确定性,并可能导致比特币价值更加逐步上涨。此外,哈里斯担任总统可能会对市场放松管制采取更加谨慎的态度,这也可能有助于稍微温和的价格上涨。
Anthropic’s Claude 3 Sonnet:
Anthropic 的克劳德第 3 首十四行诗:
Microsoft’s Co-pilot:
微软副驾驶:
Predicting Bitcoin’s price based on election outcomes is speculative, but here’s a take: If Donald Trump wins, his pro-crypto stance could boost Bitcoin to around $90,000. Conversely, Kamala Harris’s cautious yet supportive approach might see Bitcoin stabilize around $75,000. Both scenarios hinge on broader economic factors and market sentiment, so these are educated guesses rather than certainties.
根据选举结果预测比特币的价格是推测性的,但这里有一个观点:如果唐纳德·特朗普获胜,他支持加密货币的立场可能会将比特币推升至 90,000 美元左右。相反,卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)谨慎但支持的态度可能会让比特币稳定在 75,000 美元左右。这两种情况都取决于更广泛的经济因素和市场情绪,因此这些都是有根据的猜测,而不是确定性。
Openai’s Chatgpt 4o:
Openai 的 Chatgpt 4o:
If former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, it’s plausible that bitcoin’s price could see an uptick, potentially reaching $75,000 to $80,000. Trump’s prior administration was marked by deregulation and tax cuts, often favoring businesses and investors, which could lead to positive sentiment around bitcoin and risk assets. On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris clinches the presidency, a focus on tighter regulations and tax policies could lead to investor caution, pushing bitcoin to range between $60,000 and $65,000. While these predictions are speculative, market participants typically
如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普赢得 2024 年大选,比特币的价格可能会上涨,可能达到 75,000 美元至 80,000 美元。特朗普上一届政府的特点是放松管制和减税,通常有利于企业和投资者,这可能会导致围绕比特币和风险资产的积极情绪。另一方面,如果副总统卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 当选,对更严格的监管和税收政策的关注可能会导致投资者谨慎行事,从而推动比特币价格上涨至 60,000 美元至 65,000 美元之间。虽然这些预测是推测性的,但市场参与者通常
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