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e觉得这一轮AI特工的叙事推进与过去23年的铭文轨迹非常相似。比较起来不完全一样,但也有道理。我想至少我们可以把铭文赛道的历史经验复制到AI Agent赛道上,梳理出一些潜在的发展演化逻辑和投资机会:
The narrative advancement of AI Agent in this round is indeed very similar to the inscription track in the past 23 years, and it makes sense to copy the historical experience of the inscription track to the AI Agent track and sort out some potential development and evolution logic and investment opportunities.
本轮AI Agent的叙事进展确实与过去23年的铭文赛道非常相似,将铭文赛道的历史经验复制到AI Agent赛道并梳理一些潜在的发展和进化逻辑是有意义的和投资机会。
The beginning of the bubble of the “asset issuance” narrative
“资产发行”叙事泡沫的开始
There is no doubt that whether it is inscriptions, AI Agents, or the previous NFTs, the narrative evolution is born from the Fomo sentiment of "asset issuance". After all, it is too early and no one can figure out what the future use of such tokens that are quickly circulated in the market will be, but perhaps because of this, information asymmetry will produce a potential "get rich quick effect". This will push the Fomo sentiment to spread like a snowball, resulting in a "bubble" situation where more people look for the code of wealth and more meaningless tokens are born. This is actually difficult to avoid, but it is the engine for the emergence of rounds of bull markets.
毫无疑问,无论是铭文、AI代理,还是之前的NFT,叙事进化都是从“资产发行”的Fomo情绪中诞生的。毕竟现在还为时过早,没人能弄清楚这种在市场上快速流通的代币未来的用途会是什么,但或许正因为如此,信息不对称会产生潜在的“快速致富效应”。这将推动 Fomo 情绪像滚雪球一样蔓延,导致更多人寻找财富代码、诞生更多无意义代币的“泡沫”局面。这其实很难避免,但却是多轮牛市出现的引擎。
For example, the inscription track initially hyped BRC20. In addition to being novel and fun, the core selling point was the "first is first" scarcity hype attribute, and the main logic was the first-mover advantage of the narrative creators who competed for the first and second dragons. AI Agent is no exception. At the beginning, AI interactive dialogue AI Agent was hyped. Goat, act, fartcoin and other coins with the same MEME attributes also appeared. The script was similar. The MEME war around the first and second dragons lasted for a long time, and it is still unknown whether it has settled.
比如铭文赛道最初炒作的BRC20。除了新奇好玩之外,核心卖点是“第一就是第一”的稀缺炒作属性,主要逻辑是争夺第一龙和第二龙的叙事创作者的先发优势。人工智能代理也不例外。一开始,AI交互对话AI Agent被炒作。山羊、Act、Fartcoin等具有相同MEME属性的币也出现了。剧本是相似的。围绕第一龙和第二龙的MEME战争持续了很长时间,目前是否平息仍是未知数。
Of course, AI Agent’s asset issuance narrative is much stronger than inscriptions, and at least has some utlity application attributes. The only question is how to enrich application scenarios such as dialogue interaction, image and text generation, and on-chain transactions, and whether a single application scenario can support hundreds of millions of FDVs.
当然,AI Agent的资产发行叙事性比铭文要强很多,至少具备一些实用性应用属性。唯一的问题是如何丰富对话交互、图文生成、链上交易等应用场景,以及单个应用场景能否支撑上亿的FDV。
But I would like to remind you that AI Agent naturally has application attributes, so the process of track application maturity is also a process of continuously stripping away MEME. If you have to choose MEME, find the source that best represents the cultural attribution of AI Agent.
但我想提醒大家的是,AI Agent天然具有应用属性,因此追踪应用成熟度的过程也是一个不断剥离MEME的过程。如果一定要选择MEME,那就找到最能代表AI Agent文化属性的来源。
"Framework Standards" compete for internal competition
“框架标准”争夺内部竞争
When the MEME-based pure financial nihilism "asset issuance" narrative is deduced to a certain stage, it will inevitably transform into a technology-enabled implementation narrative, and a longer-term round of competition will unfold around the differences in technical standards and framework agreements.
当以MEME为基础的纯金融虚无主义“资产发行”叙事推演到一定阶段时,必然会转化为技术赋能的实现叙事,并围绕技术标准和框架的差异展开更长期的一轮竞争协议。
Looking back at the emergence of ARC20, SRC20, DRC20, Runes protocol and other public chain inscription burning stress testing wars, isn’t it very similar to the current framework and standard melee between ELIZA, ARC, Virtual, Vvaifu, zerobro, Griffain, Swarms, etc.?
回顾ARC20、SRC20、DRC20、Runes协议等公链铭文燃烧压力测试大战的出现,是不是很像现在ELIZA、ARC、Virtual、Vvaifu、zerobro、Griffain之间的框架和标准混战,蜂群等?
During this process, the hot spots of the track will continue to be refreshed, the same funds will continue to rotate, communities around the technology will also be formed, and even some confrontations and verbal battles are inevitable.
在这个过程中,赛道的热点会不断刷新,同样的资金会不断轮换,围绕技术的社区也会形成,甚至不可避免地会出现一些对抗和口水战。
The so-called technical melee exists mainly because it is difficult for technology to prove its own superiority at this stage. Relying on information such as the number of Github repo forks, the number of stars, the background of the initiator, and the mysterious dealers as references cannot resist the huge fluctuations of the project. Because you don’t know which information is mixed with water.
所谓技术混战的存在,主要是因为现阶段技术很难证明自己的优越性。依靠Github repo分叉数量、star数量、发起人背景、神秘经销商等信息作为参考,无法抵御项目的巨大波动。因为你不知道哪些信息与水混合在一起。
However, since the standards of technical excellence are involuted, the quality of technology must take the "first place". In the process of sorting out and analyzing the technical framework, characteristics and advantages of new projects, it is also a kind of "technical screening". Although it may not be accurate, it can at least avoid being misled by some MEME coins dressed in technical clothes. The logic is simple. The threshold for technical project fraud is not low. What needs to be challenged is the aesthetic preferences of the entire developer group. You can't try to harvest with a fancy website.
但由于涉及到技术卓越的标准,因此技术质量必须放在“第一位”。在对新项目的技术框架、特点和优势进行梳理和分析的过程中,也是一种“技术筛选”。虽然不一定准确,但至少可以避免被一些披着技术外衣的MEME币误导。逻辑很简单。技术项目造假的门槛并不低。需要挑战的是整个开发者群体的审美偏好。你不能尝试通过一个精美的网站来收获。
In general, the market at this stage is characterized by "hot spot rotation", which is mixed with various fraudulent projects, but fortunately, projects that can attract attention by selling technical quality are generally not bad. Of course, don't FOMO for missing a new project, FUD will definitely happen (the fate of fast pass), and there will definitely be opportunities to get on board during the huge fluctuations. Even if you miss it, you must believe that there will definitely be a better one than it. At this stage, it is definitely right to play with coins with a scumbag's thinking.
总体来说,现阶段的市场特点是“热点轮换”,其中夹杂着各种造假项目,但好在能靠卖技术质量吸引眼球的项目一般都不错。当然,不要因为错过新项目而FOMO,FUD肯定会发生(快通的命运),在巨大的波动中肯定会有机会上船。即使错过了,也要相信一定会有比它更好的。现阶段,用渣男的思维去玩币,绝对是对的。
There is no way. No matter how perfect the framework standard design is, it is just an idea at the beginning, which is no different from relying on white papers for financing in the ICO era. The best logic is
没有办法。无论框架标准设计多么完美,一开始也只是一个想法,这和ICO时代依靠白皮书融资没有什么区别。最好的逻辑是
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