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沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)著名的價值投資理念是為什麼他購買了從美國運通(American Express)到蘋果(Apple)及以後的公司的股票。
Value investing legend Warren Buffett has never expressed an interest in cryptocurrencies, but XRP (XRP 1.96%) is a coin that might pique his interest if he were to change his mind.
價值投資傳奇人物沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)從未表達過對加密貨幣的興趣,但是XRP(XRP 1.96%)是一枚硬幣,如果他要改變主意,他可能會引起他的興趣。
Here's a quick look at how XRP could fit into the principles behind some of Buffett's greatest investments.
這是一個快速探討XRP如何適應巴菲特最偉大投資背後的原則。
A quick XRP investment thesis refresher
快速XRP投資論文複習
In a nutshell, XRP is a coin that aims to offer inexpensive, rapid, and highly reliable money transfers across international borders. Financial institutions like banks and currency exchange clearing houses, both of which typically need to process a lot of these transfers, are the target user base. But, with the legacy technology that's currently in use, those users need to pay as much as $50 or more per transfer, and their transactions can take as long as five business days to settle and be subject to currency exchange fees. In contrast, XRP's transactions settle in a couple of minutes, and cost just fractions of a penny on average; the network uses those fees to pay for tech upgrades and marketing.
簡而言之,XRP是一枚硬幣,旨在在國際邊界提供廉價,快速且高度可靠的貨幣轉移。銀行和貨幣兌換清算房屋等金融機構通常需要處理許多此類轉移,都是目標用戶群。但是,借助當前正在使用的舊技術,這些用戶需要每次轉移的$ 50或更多,而他們的交易可能需要五個工作日來解決並支付貨幣兌換費。相比之下,XRP的交易在幾分鐘之內就定居了,平均成本僅為一分錢;該網絡使用這些費用來支付技術升級和營銷。
Buffett certainly likes to invest in financial technology companies and payment processors, so long as he can buy them at the right price. Aside from American Express, he also has substantial positions in Visa as well as Mastercard, all of which were innovators in the payments processing market.
巴菲特當然喜歡投資金融技術公司和支付處理器,只要他能以合適的價格購買它們。除了美國運通(American Express),他還在簽證和萬事達卡(MasterCard)都有重大職位,所有這些職位都是付款處理市場中的創新者。
These companies' business models reflect Buffett's favorite approach. Rather than selling a product directly to consumers, the card companies facilitate payments from consumers to businesses to streamline the process for both ends of the transaction, capturing a small portion of each payment.
這些公司的業務模式反映了巴菲特最喜歡的方法。卡公司沒有直接向消費者出售產品,而是便利從消費者到企業的付款,以簡化交易兩端的流程,從而捕獲每筆付款的一小部分。
The idea isn't to make a lot of revenue immediately, but to slowly scale the payment networks by onboarding more businesses and cardholders, capturing more payments and a regular inflow of increasing fees. Those fees readily fall to the bottom line because processing each additional payment costs very little after the enormous cost of building the network has been absorbed. Once those players reached a certain size, they effectively had an economic moat that protected their margins, as new entrants to the market would have to struggle to get established by rolling out new hardware and offering new cards to users who were already accustomed to using competing products.
這個想法不是要立即賺取大量收入,而是要通過攻入更多的企業和持卡人,捕獲更多的付款以及定期增加費用的流入來慢慢擴大支付網絡。這些費用很容易落在底線上,因為在構建網絡的巨額成本被吸收後,幾乎沒有處理每筆額外的付款成本。一旦這些玩家達到一定的規模,他們就有一種經濟護城河來保護自己的利潤,因為新進入市場的進入者將不得不努力通過推出新硬件並向已經習慣使用競爭性的用戶提供新卡來建立。產品。
Look at how well that process has played out in Buffett's favor during the past 10 years alone:
看看這一過程在過去的10年中對巴菲特的支持的表現如何:
SPY Total Return Level data by YCharts
YCHARTS的間諜總回報水平數據
Now, consider the position of XRP today.
現在,考慮今天XRP的位置。
It's offering a service that's cheaper, faster, and more convenient than the existing ways of making international money transfers. Processing each transaction is not a major expense, but it can reliably reap fees from any given user for years and years. XRP's price has increased more than 800% during the past five years alone. It isn't anywhere close to onboarding all of the potential users globally that could benefit from using the coin instead of older systems, so it likely has many years of growth ahead.
它提供的服務比現有的國際資金轉移方式便宜,更快,更方便。處理每筆交易不是主要費用,但是可以可靠地從任何給定用戶收取多年的費用。僅在過去的五年中,XRP的價格上漲了800%以上。它在全球所有潛在用戶的登機上都不接近,這些用戶可能會從使用硬幣而不是較舊的系統中受益,因此它很可能會增長多年。
In other words, XRP looks a lot like a Buffett stock even though he doesn't own it.
換句話說,XRP看起來很像巴菲特的股票,即使他不擁有它。
Think for yourself
想自己
Don't hold your breath waiting for Buffett to buy XRP. It's unlikely that he would even consider it to be a real investment opportunity because it's a cryptocurrency rather than a traditional company with a stock he could size up with a valuation calculation.
不要屏住呼吸等待巴菲特購買XRP。他甚至不太可能認為這是一個真正的投資機會,因為它是一種加密貨幣,而不是具有估值計算的股票的傳統公司。
But XRP is a popular cryptocurrency for a reason. There are many arguments for why buying it today will mean having more money in the future, when its core value-generation process will have had even more time to generate fees, and many more users turn to it for processing cross-border transactions. And unlike the credit card businesses Buffett bought, XRP's biggest competition right now is stuck with obsolete technology, so it isn't much of a threat.
但是XRP由於某種原因是流行的加密貨幣。關於為什麼今天購買它的原因有很多論點,這意味著將來有更多的錢,何時它的核心價值生成過程將有更多的時間產生費用,而更多的用戶則求助於處理跨境交易。與巴菲特購買的信用卡業務不同,XRP現在最大的競爭被過時的技術困住了,因此這並不是什麼威脅。
That is no guarantee that the coin will go up in the near term. Still, if you're willing to hold onto your XRP for a Buffett-esque period of time -- many years -- the odds of reaping big profits are in your favor.
這不能保證硬幣會在短期內上升。不過,如果您願意在巴菲特風格的一段時間內堅持XRP,那麼多年 - 獲得大幅利潤的機率對您有利。
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