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一些分析師和專家對 2024 年的以太坊 (ETH) 寄予厚望。
Several analysts and experts had high hopes for Ethereum (ETH) coming into 2024. These hopes were only heightened by the SEC’s shock approval of spot ETH ETFs in May 2024.
一些分析師和專家對 2024 年的以太坊 (ETH) 寄予厚望。
Fast-forward to less than two months until the end of the year, however, and these hopes have yet to materialize. Instead, the asset has significantly underperformed fellow market leaders Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL).
然而,快進到距離年底還有不到兩個月的時間,這些希望尚未實現。相反,該資產的表現明顯落後於其他市場領導者比特幣 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL)。
Amid ETH’s lackluster performance, VanEck has revised its long-term price target for the asset.
在 ETH 表現不佳的情況下,VanEck 修改了該資產的長期價格目標。
From $22K To $7.3K
從 22,000 美元到 7,300 美元
VanEck has significantly downgraded its long-term Ethereum (ETH) price target. In an X post on Thursday, October 17, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Siegel, disclosed that the asset manager had revised its 2030 ETH target from $22,000 to just above $7,300, representing a staggering 67% reduction.
VanEck 大幅下調了以太坊(ETH)的長期價格目標。在 10 月 17 日星期四的 X 貼文中,VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Siegel 透露,該資產管理公司已將 2030 年 ETH 目標從 22,000 美元修改為略高於 7,300 美元,降幅達到驚人的 67%。
The revision comes amid Ethereum’s changing network dynamics. Specifically, Siegel disclosed that VanEck’s previous model had assumed that Ethereum would get 90% of the revenue from Layer 2 chains in the form of blob fees, proving fees, and call data fees. As the researcher highlighted, however, reality has been the opposite of the asset manager’s assumptions, as the firm estimates that only 10% of this revenue has accrued to Ethereum over the past four months.
此次修訂是在以太坊網路動態不斷變化的背景下進行的。具體來說,Siegel 透露,VanEck 先前的模型假設以太坊將從 Layer 2 鏈中以 Blob 費用、證明費用和通話數據費用的形式獲得 90% 的收入。然而,正如研究人員所強調的那樣,現實與資產管理公司的假設相反,該公司估計在過去四個月中只有 10% 的收入流入了以太坊。
The recent VanEck report feeds into the narrative that most Layer 2 chains are not as economically aligned with Ethereum as they should be and are instead excessively extracting value from Layer 1 following the Dencun upgrade, which effectively made it free for these chains to settle transactions on the mainnet.
最近的VanEck 報告證實了這樣一種說法:大多數Layer 2 鏈在經濟上並未與以太坊保持應有的一致,而是在Dencun 升級後過度從Layer 1 中獲取價值,這實際上使這些鏈可以自由地在以太坊上結算交易。
Beyond extracting value, these Layer 2 chains have driven a large amount of activity from the Layer 1 chain, leading to a decrease in ETH burns and making the asset inflationary. As a result, many investors have questioned the asset’s investment thesis.
除了提取價值之外,這些第 2 層鏈還帶動了第 1 層鏈的大量活動,導致 ETH 燃燒減少並導致資產通膨。因此,許多投資者質疑該資產的投資理論。
Can Ethereum (ETH) Turn the Tide?
以太坊(ETH)能否力挽狂瀾?
ETH’s ability to change the tide will likely depend on whether power can shift back to Layer 1. In an October 4 report, VanEck analysts argued that the network had to incentivize greater alignment for the rollup-centric roadmap to not be purely extractive on ETH.
ETH 改變潮流的能力可能取決於權力是否可以轉移回第1 層。榨取。
Some suggestions made by the analysts included forcing Layer 2 chains to use based sequencers, which require validators to hold ETH, offering perks like faster finality to Layer 2 chains that return more value to the Layer 1 chain, or requiring Layer 2 ETH collateralization to use blobs.
分析師提出的一些建議包括強制第2 層鏈使用基於排序器,這要求驗證者持有ETH,為第2 層鏈提供更快的最終確定性等福利,從而為第1 層鏈返回更多價值,或要求第2 層ETH 抵押才能使用斑點。
On October 6, VanEck’s Matthew Siegel noted that proposals like EIP-7781 could help spark this alignment shift. The proposal promises to offer faster finality for the Ethereum mainnet and rollups using based sequencers.
10 月 6 日,VanEck 的 Matthew Siegel 指出,像 EIP-7781 這樣的提案可能有助於引發這種聯盟轉變。該提案承諾使用基於排序器的以太坊主網和匯總提供更快的最終確定性。
On the Flipside
另一方面
Why This Matters
為什麼這很重要
VanEck’s revised prediction underscores the fundamental changes the Ethereum network and ETH’s tokenomics have undergone in recent months and how they are affecting how investors view the asset.
VanEck 修訂後的預測強調了近幾個月來以太坊網路和 ETH 代幣經濟發生的根本性變化,以及它們如何影響投資者如何看待該資產。
Read these for more on Ethereum:
有關以太坊的更多信息,請閱讀以下內容:
How Ethereum Will ‘Go Fast’ Decentralized: Vitalik Demystifies the Surge
以太坊將如何「快速發展」去中心化:Vitalik 揭秘激增趨勢
Ethereum Blob Count Nears “Target”: Is It Bullish for ETH’s Price?
以太坊 Blob 數量接近「目標」:對 ETH 價格有利嗎?
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