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一些分析师和专家对 2024 年的以太坊 (ETH) 寄予厚望。美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 于 2024 年 5 月意外批准了现货 ETH ETF,这进一步增强了这些希望。
Several analysts and experts had high hopes for Ethereum (ETH) coming into 2024. These hopes were only heightened by the SEC’s shock approval of spot ETH ETFs in May 2024.
一些分析师和专家对 2024 年的以太坊 (ETH) 寄予厚望。美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 于 2024 年 5 月意外批准了现货 ETH ETF,这进一步增强了这些希望。
Fast-forward to less than two months until the end of the year, however, and these hopes have yet to materialize. Instead, the asset has significantly underperformed fellow market leaders Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL).
然而,快进到距离年底还有不到两个月的时间,这些希望尚未实现。相反,该资产的表现明显落后于其他市场领导者比特币 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL)。
Amid ETH’s lackluster performance, VanEck has revised its long-term price target for the asset.
在 ETH 表现不佳的情况下,VanEck 修改了该资产的长期价格目标。
From $22K To $7.3K
从 22,000 美元到 7,300 美元
VanEck has significantly downgraded its long-term Ethereum (ETH) price target. In an X post on Thursday, October 17, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Siegel, disclosed that the asset manager had revised its 2030 ETH target from $22,000 to just above $7,300, representing a staggering 67% reduction.
VanEck 大幅下调了以太坊(ETH)的长期价格目标。在 10 月 17 日星期四的 X 帖子中,VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Siegel 透露,该资产管理公司已将 2030 年 ETH 目标从 22,000 美元修改为略高于 7,300 美元,降幅达到惊人的 67%。
The revision comes amid Ethereum’s changing network dynamics. Specifically, Siegel disclosed that VanEck’s previous model had assumed that Ethereum would get 90% of the revenue from Layer 2 chains in the form of blob fees, proving fees, and call data fees. As the researcher highlighted, however, reality has been the opposite of the asset manager’s assumptions, as the firm estimates that only 10% of this revenue has accrued to Ethereum over the past four months.
此次修订是在以太坊网络动态不断变化的背景下进行的。具体来说,Siegel 透露,VanEck 之前的模型假设以太坊将从 Layer 2 链中以 Blob 费用、证明费用和通话数据费用的形式获得 90% 的收入。然而,正如研究人员强调的那样,现实与资产管理公司的假设相反,该公司估计在过去四个月中只有 10% 的收入流入了以太坊。
The recent VanEck report feeds into the narrative that most Layer 2 chains are not as economically aligned with Ethereum as they should be and are instead excessively extracting value from Layer 1 following the Dencun upgrade, which effectively made it free for these chains to settle transactions on the mainnet.
最近的 VanEck 报告证实了这样一种说法:大多数 Layer 2 链在经济上并未与以太坊保持应有的一致,而是在 Dencun 升级后过度从 Layer 1 中获取价值,这实际上使这些链可以自由地在以太坊上结算交易。主网。
Beyond extracting value, these Layer 2 chains have driven a large amount of activity from the Layer 1 chain, leading to a decrease in ETH burns and making the asset inflationary. As a result, many investors have questioned the asset’s investment thesis.
除了提取价值之外,这些第 2 层链还带动了第 1 层链的大量活动,导致 ETH 燃烧减少并导致资产通胀。因此,许多投资者质疑该资产的投资理论。
Can Ethereum (ETH) Turn the Tide?
以太坊(ETH)能否力挽狂澜?
ETH’s ability to change the tide will likely depend on whether power can shift back to Layer 1. In an October 4 report, VanEck analysts argued that the network had to incentivize greater alignment for the rollup-centric roadmap to not be purely extractive on ETH.
ETH 改变潮流的能力可能取决于权力是否可以转移回第 1 层。在 10 月 4 日的报告中,VanEck 分析师认为,网络必须激励以 Rollup 为中心的路线图更加一致,而不是纯粹对 ETH 进行榨取。
Some suggestions made by the analysts included forcing Layer 2 chains to use based sequencers, which require validators to hold ETH, offering perks like faster finality to Layer 2 chains that return more value to the Layer 1 chain, or requiring Layer 2 ETH collateralization to use blobs.
分析师提出的一些建议包括强制第 2 层链使用基于排序器,这要求验证者持有 ETH,为第 2 层链提供更快的最终确定性等福利,从而为第 1 层链返回更多价值,或者要求第 2 层 ETH 抵押才能使用斑点。
On October 6, VanEck’s Matthew Siegel noted that proposals like EIP-7781 could help spark this alignment shift. The proposal promises to offer faster finality for the Ethereum mainnet and rollups using based sequencers.
10 月 6 日,VanEck 的 Matthew Siegel 指出,像 EIP-7781 这样的提案可能有助于引发这种联盟转变。该提案承诺使用基于排序器的以太坊主网和汇总提供更快的最终确定性。
On the Flipside
另一方面
Why This Matters
为什么这很重要
VanEck’s revised prediction underscores the fundamental changes the Ethereum network and ETH’s tokenomics have undergone in recent months and how they are affecting how investors view the asset.
VanEck 修订后的预测强调了近几个月来以太坊网络和 ETH 代币经济发生的根本性变化,以及它们如何影响投资者如何看待该资产。
Read these for more on Ethereum:
有关以太坊的更多信息,请阅读以下内容:
How Ethereum Will ‘Go Fast’ Decentralized: Vitalik Demystifies the Surge
以太坊将如何“快速发展”去中心化:Vitalik 揭秘激增趋势
Ethereum Blob Count Nears “Target”: Is It Bullish for ETH’s Price?
以太坊 Blob 数量接近“目标”:对 ETH 价格有利吗?
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