台積電：推動人工智慧革命的晶片製造巨頭

英偉達在蓬勃發展的人工智慧市場中的主導地位推動了其股價的顯著增長，使投資者渴望發現類似的機會。全球領先的合約晶片製造商和 Nvidia 的 GPU 製造商台積電 (TSMC) 成為潛在的競爭者。本分析重點在於台積電的商業模式、人工智慧領域的投資以及長期成長前景，旨在確定台積電是否有潛力複製英偉達在人工智慧驅動的技術領域的成功。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: A Critical Player in Artificial Intelligence Era

台積電：人工智慧時代的關鍵參與者

Amidst the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) industry, Nvidia, a leader in chipmaking, has witnessed remarkable growth, driven by soaring demand for its high-end graphics processing units (GPUs). As AI capabilities become increasingly essential for enterprise operations, investors seek to identify additional players poised to capitalize on this transformative market.

在蓬勃發展的人工智慧（AI）產業中，晶片製造領域的領導者英偉達（Nvidia）在高階圖形處理單元（GPU）需求飆升的推動下實現了顯著成長。隨著人工智慧能力對企業營運變得越來越重要，投資人尋求尋找更多能夠利用這個變革市場的參與者。

Enter Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC): A Semiconductor Powerhouse

進入台積電（TSMC）：半導體強國

TSMC, a global behemoth in contract chipmaking, holds a prominent position as the world's most advanced third-party foundry. Its exceptional prowess in producing ultra-compact, energy-efficient chips has made it the preferred partner for industry giants such as Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple. Notably, TSMC's dominance extends to the fabrication of approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips, solidifying its position as a bellwether and linchpin of the global semiconductor industry.

台積電是全球代工晶片製造領域的巨頭，作為全球最先進的第三方代工廠，佔據顯著的地位。其在生產超緊湊、節能晶片​​方面的卓越能力使其成為英偉達、AMD、高通和蘋果等行業巨頭的首選合作夥伴。值得注意的是，台積電的主導地位延伸到了全球約 90% 最先進晶片的製造，鞏固了其作為全球半導體行業領頭羊和關鍵的地位。

TSMC's Technological Edge

台積電的技術優勢

TSMC's technological leadership stems from its early adoption of ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, superior to the approaches employed by rivals Samsung and Intel. This technological advantage has enabled TSMC to etch finer circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, pushing the boundaries of chip miniaturization and performance.

台積電的技術領先地位源自於其早期採用 ASML 的極紫外光 (EUV) 微影系統，優於競爭對手三星和英特爾所採用的方法。這項技術優勢使得台積電能夠在矽晶圓上蝕刻出更精細的電路圖案，從而突破了晶片小型化和性能的界限。

TSMC's Growth Trajectory

台積電的成長軌跡

TSMC's revenue trajectory mirrors the cyclical nature of the semiconductor market, marked by periods of expansion and contraction. Despite experiencing downturns in 2019 and 2023, the company's market dominance and pricing power have bolstered its gross margin.

台積電的收入軌跡反映了半導體市場的周期性，以擴張和收縮時期為特徵。儘管經歷了2019年和2023年的低迷，但該公司的市場主導地位和定價能力提振了其毛利率。

Exposure to AI Market

指標20192020202120222023 (Q1)營收成長3.7%25.2%18.5%42.6%(4.5%)毛利率46%53.1%51.6%59.6%54.4%EPS(1.7%)50%15.敞口

In the first quarter of 2024, TSMC derived 46% of its revenue from the high-performance computing (HPC) market, a domain that encompasses CPUs and GPUs for clients like Nvidia and AMD. Notably, the growth witnessed in the AI sector has counterbalanced the sluggish performance of the PC segment. However, the smartphone market remains a laggard, with the 5G upgrade cycle nearing its end.

2024 年第一季度，台積電 46% 的收入來自高效能運算 (HPC) 市場，該領域包括為 Nvidia 和 AMD 等客戶提供 CPU 和 GPU。值得注意的是，人工智慧領域的成長抵消了個人電腦領域的低迷表現。然而，智慧型手機市場仍落後，5G升級週期已接近尾聲。

2024 Outlook and Growth Projections

2024 年展望與成長預測

For the year 2024, TSMC anticipates moderate growth of 10-20%, driven by expansion in the AI market, stabilization in the PC arena, and renewed growth in the smartphone sector. Analysts project robust revenue and earnings growth of approximately 21% for the full year. These estimates reflect solid growth prospects for a stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.

台積電預計 2024 年將在 AI 市場擴張、PC 領域穩定以及智慧型手機領域重新成長的推動下實現 10-20% 的適度成長。分析師預計全年營收和獲利將強勁成長約 21%。這些估計值反映了以 22 倍的遠期本益比 (P/E) 交易的股票的穩健成長前景。

Growth Outlook Adjustment

成長前景調整

During TSMC's first-quarter conference call, CEO C.C. Wei revised the company's growth forecast for the broader semiconductor market (excluding memory chips), from an initial projection of over 10% to "approximately 10%." This adjustment, attributed to ongoing "macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty," underscores the volatility that the semiconductor industry may face in the coming year.

在台積電第一季電話會議上，執行長 C.C.魏修改了公司對更廣泛的半導體市場（不包括記憶體晶片）的成長預測，從最初的超過 10% 的預測調整為「大約 10%」。這項調整歸因於持續的“宏觀經濟和地緣政治不確定性”，凸顯了半導體產業未來一年可能面臨的波動性。

TSMC vs. Nvidia: A Tale of Two Tech Giants

台積電 vs. 英偉達：兩大科技巨頭的故事

TSMC's stock performance has witnessed a threefold increase over the past five years. However, it is unlikely to outpace Nvidia's near-term gains due to two primary factors:

過去五年，台積電的股價表現成長了三倍。然而，由於兩個主要因素，它不太可能超過英偉達的近期漲幅：

1. Diversified Business vs. Focused Growth: TSMC's revenue streams are more diversified than Nvidia's, with the latter's dependence on HPC orders boosting TSMC's revenue but being partially offset by weakness in other markets. Nvidia's streamlined business model positions it as a more direct growth play as the AI market continues its ascent.

1. 多元化業務與集中成長：台積電的收入來源比英偉達更加多元化，後者對 HPC 訂單的依賴提高了台積電的收入，但部分被其他市場的疲軟所抵消。隨著人工智慧市場的持續成長，英偉達簡化的商業模式使其成為更直接的成長遊戲。

2. Growth Trajectory and Valuation: TSMC's growth trajectory is more moderate than Nvidia's, which is anticipated to experience an 81% and 89% surge in revenue and earnings, respectively, in fiscal 2025. As a result, Nvidia's forward P/E ratio of 35 appears reasonable in comparison to TSMC's valuation.

2. 成長軌跡與估值：台積電的成長軌跡比英偉達更為溫和，預計 2025 財年，英偉達的營收和獲利將分別飆升 81% 和 89%。相比，35似乎是合理的。

Investment Conclusion

投資總結

Both TSMC and Nvidia represent compelling long-term investments in the semiconductor sector. However, their investment profiles differ markedly. TSMC offers broader exposure to the industry for conservative investors, while Nvidia appeals more to growth-oriented investors seeking continued dominance in the AI market. Ultimately, the choice between these two tech giants depends on individual investment objectives and risk tolerance.

台積電和英偉達都代表著半導體產業引人注目的長期投資。然而，他們的投資狀況卻截然不同。台積電為保守投資者提供了更廣泛的行業投資機會，而英偉達則更吸引尋求繼續在人工智慧市場佔據主導地位的成長型投資者。最終，這兩家科技巨頭之間的選擇取決於個人的投資目標和風險承受能力。