特朗普意外宣布的戰略加密儲備將比特幣的價格飆升

在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統在周末意外宣布戰略性加密儲備之後，加密貨幣市場已經鞭打。

Crypto markets have whipsawed following President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve over the weekend, while a Bitwise Asset Management chief investment officer (CIO) says traders are overreacting to details and missing what could be a bullish development for digital assets.

加密市場在周末意外宣布戰略加密貨幣儲備之後，加密市場已經鞭打了，而Bitwise Asset Management首席投資官（CIO）表示，貿易商對細節的反應過度，並且缺少可能對數字資產的看漲發展。

On Sunday evening, President Trump unveiled a U.S. government initiative to acquire and hold five different cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cardano—in a strategic reserve. The market response was initially strong, with Bitcoin’s price surging from around $85,000 to $95,000. However, as Matt Hougan notes in his latest investor memo, that optimism was short-lived. By Monday, the major crypto assets named in the announcement had surrendered their gains.

週日晚上，特朗普總統宣布了一項美國政府倡議，旨在在戰略儲備中收購和持有五種不同的加密貨幣，即Bitcoin，Ethereum，Solana，XRP和Cardano。市場響應最初是強勁的，比特幣的價格從約85,000美元飆升至95,000美元。但是，正如馬特·霍根（Matt Hougan）在他的最新投資者備忘錄中指出的那樣，這種樂觀情緒是短暫的。到週一，該公告中提到的主要加密資產已投降。

Everyone Is Misjudging Trump’s Crypto Reserve

每個人都在錯誤地判斷特朗普的加密儲備

Bitwise released its memo on March 4, titled “The Market Has This Wrong: Thoughts on Trump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve.” In it, Hougan attributes the abrupt retracement to overly narrow market interpretations of the proposed plan.

Bitwise於3月4日發布了備忘錄，標題為“市場錯誤：對特朗普戰略加密保護區的想法”。在其中，霍根（Hougan）將突然的回溯歸因於對擬議計劃的過度狹窄市場解釋。

“The market is overthinking things. For all the flaws in the rollout, the reserve news is bullish,” Hougan says. He adds that the proposal’s inclusion of a broad range of crypto assets is being met with skepticism.

“市場正在思考事物。對於推出中的所有缺陷，預備役新聞都是看好的。”侯甘說。他補充說，該提案包含了廣泛的加密資產，這對懷疑主義持懷疑態度。

“A large part of the criticism is focused on the White House’s choice of five cryptocurrencies, which critics say is too broad an inclusion. As [Bitwise's Hunter Horsley] noted in his post, there is a strong argument to be made for a more conservative, bitcoin-only reserve.”

“很大一部分批評集中在白宮選擇五種加密貨幣的選擇上，批評者說這是一種包容性。正如[Bitwise的Hunter Horsley]在他的帖子中指出的那樣，對於更保守的，僅比特幣的儲備有很大的論據。”

However, Hougan argues that market participants may be failing to see the bigger picture.

但是，霍根認為，市場參與者可能無法看到更大的前景。

In the memo, Hougan highlights three major takeaways regarding the strategic reserve plan.

在備忘錄中，Hougan強調了有關戰略儲備計劃的三個主要收穫。

First, he suggests that President Trump’s first public draft often differs considerably from what eventually becomes policy. The reserve, he argues, might ultimately shift to a “bitcoin-only” approach or evolve to a more balanced composition following industry input.

首先，他建議特朗普總統的第一份公開草案通常與最終成為政策的情況大不相同。他認為，該保護區最終可能會轉向“僅比特幣”的方法，或者發展到行業投入後更加平衡的組成。

“Over the coming days, big names from the crypto industry will make their feelings felt about the reserve idea. We learned this in the last election, where the GOP’s courtship of crypto gained it many votes while Democratic hostility gained few. I suspect that any crypto that is purchased will be held for a very long time.”

“在接下來的幾天裡，加密貨幣行業的知名人士將使他們對儲備的想法感受到感受。我們在上次選舉中得知了這一點，在那里共和黨的加密訴訟獲得了許多選票，而民主敵對行動則獲得了很少的投票。我懷疑購買的任何加密貨幣都將在很長一段時間內持有。”

Despite this optimism, Hougan acknowledges the prospect that the pushback could become so intense that the reserve is either scaled down or scrapped. Critics say that including less-established assets alongside Bitcoin only muddies the waters and may undermine the legitimacy of the initiative.

儘管有這種樂觀的態度，霍根還是承認了前景，即推動力可能變得如此強烈，以至於儲備金可以縮小或取消。批評者說，包括較欠佳的資產以及比特幣並只弄髒了水域，並可能破壞該計劃的合法性。

However, Hougan believes that “the final reserve will be nearly entirely bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.”

但是，霍根（Hougan）認為“最終儲備將幾乎完全是比特幣，它將比人們想像的要大。”

He also emphasizes a broader point: the simple acknowledgment by the U.S. government that crypto assets can be deemed “strategic” has potentially game-changing significance.

他還強調了一個更廣泛的觀點：美國政府的簡單承認，即加密資產可以被視為“戰略性”具有改變遊戲規則的意義。

In his view, such a designation could catalyze global adoption, spurring other countries to purchase crypto or ramp up holdings already in place.

他認為，這樣的指定可以催化全球採用，促使其他國家購買已經到位的加密貨幣或增加股份。

“If you are Honduras, Mexico, or Guatemala, and you’re watching El Salvador and now the U.S. acquire bitcoin, can you really afford to be at zero?”

“如果您是洪都拉斯，墨西哥或危地馬拉，並且您正在看薩爾瓦多，現在美國獲得了比特幣，您真的可以負擔得起零嗎？”

According to Hougan, Sunday’s announcement should be interpreted as bullish for digital assets—despite the complicated rollout and the resulting price swings. He warns that markets might be letting short-term controversies overshadow the bigger picture.

據霍根說，週日的宣布應被解釋為數字資產的看漲，儘管這是複雜的推出和由此產生的價格波動。他警告說，市場可能會讓短期爭議掩蓋了更大的景象。

“The U.S. government declaring crypto assets ‘strategic’ is bullish. I think the market will eventually realize that.”

“美國政府宣布加密資產'戰略'是看好的。我認為市場最終會意識到這一點。”

As the White House prepares for a scheduled Crypto Summit this Friday—hosted by crypto czar David Sacks—industry voices will likely press for a more measured and possibly narrower reserve structure.

當白宮準備在本週五（由Crypto Czar David Sacks主持）的預定加密峰會時，行業聲音可能會施壓更加可衡量的，可能更狹窄的儲備結構。

Whether the final policy ultimately narrows to a bitcoin-focused plan or persists with multiple coins, Hougan believes it may still mark a meaningful step forward in the mainstream legitimization of crypto. The initial reaction may have been mixed, but, as he succinctly puts it, “after the dust settles, I suspect the final reserve will look pretty good.”

無論最終政策最終都會縮小以比特幣為重點的計劃，還是用多個硬幣持續存在，Hougan認為，這仍然可能標誌著加密貨幣主流合法化的有意義的一步。最初的反應可能是混雜的，但是正如他簡潔地說：“塵埃落定後，我懷疑最終的儲備看起來會很好。”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,565.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為87,565美元。