Toncoin 價格分析：期貨持股下降後，TON 會反彈嗎？

隨著生態系統困境的持續，Toncoin 的價格在過去幾個月裡毫無進展。 TON 今年 6 月達到高峰 8.2740 美元，目前已下跌 30% 至目前的 5.7565 美元

The price of Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) has stalled in recent months amid ongoing challenges within its ecosystem. After reaching a peak of $8.2740 in June, TON has since declined by 30% and currently trades at $5.7565. As futures open interest drops, will the coin's price experience a rebound?

由於生態系統內部持續面臨挑戰，Toncoin（加密貨幣：TON）的價格近幾個月陷入停滯。在 6 月達到 8.2740 美元的峰值後，TON 已下跌 30%，目前交易價格為 5.7565 美元。隨著期貨持倉量下降，代幣的價格會反彈嗎？

Diminishing Interest in Toncoin

對 Toncoin 的興趣減弱

Indications suggest that investors' enthusiasm for Toncoin has waned since the earlier tap-to-earn craze within its network. Following the arrest of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram and Toncoin, by French authorities, interest in the coin has notably declined.

有跡象表明，自從早期網路內的點擊賺錢熱潮以來，投資者對 Toncoin 的熱情已經減弱。 Telegram 和 Toncoin 的創始人 Pavel Durov 被法國當局逮捕後，人們對這種貨幣的興趣大幅下降。

One factor highlighting the lack of demand for Toncoin is the continuous decline in futures open interest, which currently stands at $183 million. This figure is significantly lower than the year-to-date high of $362 million and has approached the lowest level in nine months.

突顯 Toncoin 需求不足的一個因素是期貨未平倉合約的持續下降，目前未平倉合約為 1.83 億美元。這一數字明顯低於今年迄今的高點3.62億美元，已接近九個月來的最低水準。

Moreover, data reveals that the percentage change in open interest (OI) has turned negative, indicating that investors are either selling their holdings or reducing their bullish positions. While this can be a negative sign, it may also suggest the coin's entry into a slow accumulation phase, ultimately leading to further gains.

此外，數據顯示，未平倉合約（OI）的百分比變化已轉為負值，表明投資者要么正在出售所持股份，要么正在減少多頭部位。雖然這可能是負面訊號，但也可能表明代幣進入緩慢累積階段，最終導致進一步上漲。

Significantly, recent data shows that whales have emerged as the largest holders of the coin. Whales collectively hold approximately 66.42% of TON, which has increased from 49.5% in September last year. As the coin's price has fallen, investors and retail traders have reduced their positioning.

值得注意的是，最近的數據顯示鯨魚已成為該代幣的最大持有者。鯨魚總共持有 TON 約 66.42%，較去年 9 月的 49.5% 增加。隨著代幣價格下跌，投資者和散戶交易者減少了部位。

On the downside, TON continues to have an annual inflation rate of 0.354%, the highest since August this year. While a high inflation figure may not be inherently negative, especially if accompanied by increased burning, data indicates that TON's burn rate has dropped to 5,604 tokens per day, significantly lower than the nearly 40,000 tokens burned a few months ago.

不利的一面是，TON 的年通膨率仍然為 0.354%，為今年 8 月以來的最高水準。雖然高通膨數字可能不一定是負面的，特別是如果伴隨著燃燒的增加，但數據表明TON 的燃燒率已降至每天5,604 個代幣，明顯低於幾個月前燃燒的近40,000 個代幣。

Toncoin Price Analysis: What to Expect?

Toncoin 價格分析：會發生什麼事？

On the daily chart, we can observe that the price of TON has been in a downtrend since peaking at $8.2827 in June. Having formed a descending channel, the coin has slipped below both the short-term (50-day EMA) and long-term (200-day EMA) moving averages. This decline coincides with the broader downturn in the prices of several tokens within the Toncoin ecosystem, such as FOOD (DOGS) and Hamster Kombat.

從日線圖上我們可以觀察到，TON 的價格自 6 月觸及峰值 8.2827 美元以來一直處於下降趨勢。在形成下降通道後，代幣已跌破短期（50 日均線）和長期（200 日均線）移動平均線。這一下跌與 Toncoin 生態系統內多種代幣價格的更廣泛下跌同時發生，例如 FOOD (DOGS) 和 Hamster Kombat。

Considering the broader market conditions and the challenges faced by the Toncoin ecosystem, it's possible that the recent recovery in the coin's price may be short-lived, influenced by the Santa Claus rally. If this scenario plays out, we can anticipate a potential decline in the price of TON, leading to a retest of the lower channel boundary at $4.50.

考慮到更廣泛的市場狀況和 Toncoin 生態系統面臨的挑戰，受聖誕老人反彈的影響，近期代幣價格的復甦可能是短暫的。如果這種情況發生，我們可以預期 TON 的價格可能會下跌，從而導致重新測試通道下限 4.50 美元。