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随着生态系统困境的持续,Toncoin 的价格在过去几个月里毫无进展。 TON 今年 6 月达到峰值 8.2740 美元,目前已下跌 30% 至目前的 5.7565 美元
The price of Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) has stalled in recent months amid ongoing challenges within its ecosystem. After reaching a peak of $8.2740 in June, TON has since declined by 30% and currently trades at $5.7565. As futures open interest drops, will the coin's price experience a rebound?
由于生态系统内部持续面临挑战,Toncoin(加密货币:TON)的价格近几个月陷入停滞。在 6 月份达到 8.2740 美元的峰值后,TON 已下跌 30%,目前交易价格为 5.7565 美元。随着期货持仓量下降,代币的价格会反弹吗?
Diminishing Interest in Toncoin
对 Toncoin 的兴趣减弱
Indications suggest that investors' enthusiasm for Toncoin has waned since the earlier tap-to-earn craze within its network. Following the arrest of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram and Toncoin, by French authorities, interest in the coin has notably declined.
有迹象表明,自早期网络内的点击赚钱热潮以来,投资者对 Toncoin 的热情已经减弱。 Telegram 和 Toncoin 的创始人帕维尔·杜罗夫 (Pavel Durov) 被法国当局逮捕后,人们对这种货币的兴趣明显下降。
One factor highlighting the lack of demand for Toncoin is the continuous decline in futures open interest, which currently stands at $183 million. This figure is significantly lower than the year-to-date high of $362 million and has approached the lowest level in nine months.
凸显 Toncoin 需求不足的一个因素是期货未平仓合约的持续下降,目前未平仓合约为 1.83 亿美元。这一数字明显低于今年迄今的高点3.62亿美元,并已接近九个月来的最低水平。
Moreover, data reveals that the percentage change in open interest (OI) has turned negative, indicating that investors are either selling their holdings or reducing their bullish positions. While this can be a negative sign, it may also suggest the coin's entry into a slow accumulation phase, ultimately leading to further gains.
此外,数据显示,未平仓合约(OI)的百分比变化已转为负值,表明投资者要么正在出售所持股份,要么正在减少多头头寸。虽然这可能是一个负面信号,但也可能表明代币进入缓慢积累阶段,最终导致进一步上涨。
Significantly, recent data shows that whales have emerged as the largest holders of the coin. Whales collectively hold approximately 66.42% of TON, which has increased from 49.5% in September last year. As the coin's price has fallen, investors and retail traders have reduced their positioning.
值得注意的是,最近的数据显示鲸鱼已成为该代币的最大持有者。鲸鱼总共持有 TON 约 66.42%,较去年 9 月的 49.5% 有所增加。随着代币价格下跌,投资者和散户交易者减少了头寸。
On the downside, TON continues to have an annual inflation rate of 0.354%, the highest since August this year. While a high inflation figure may not be inherently negative, especially if accompanied by increased burning, data indicates that TON's burn rate has dropped to 5,604 tokens per day, significantly lower than the nearly 40,000 tokens burned a few months ago.
不利的一面是,TON 的年通胀率仍然为 0.354%,为今年 8 月以来的最高水平。虽然高通胀数字可能并不一定是负面的,特别是如果伴随着燃烧的增加,但数据表明 TON 的燃烧率已降至每天 5,604 个代币,明显低于几个月前燃烧的近 40,000 个代币。
Toncoin Price Analysis: What to Expect?
Toncoin 价格分析:会发生什么?
On the daily chart, we can observe that the price of TON has been in a downtrend since peaking at $8.2827 in June. Having formed a descending channel, the coin has slipped below both the short-term (50-day EMA) and long-term (200-day EMA) moving averages. This decline coincides with the broader downturn in the prices of several tokens within the Toncoin ecosystem, such as FOOD (DOGS) and Hamster Kombat.
从日线图上我们可以观察到,TON 的价格自 6 月份触及峰值 8.2827 美元以来一直处于下降趋势。在形成下降通道后,代币已跌破短期(50 天均线)和长期(200 天均线)移动平均线。这一下跌与 Toncoin 生态系统内多种代币价格的更广泛下跌同时发生,例如 FOOD (DOGS) 和 Hamster Kombat。
Considering the broader market conditions and the challenges faced by the Toncoin ecosystem, it's possible that the recent recovery in the coin's price may be short-lived, influenced by the Santa Claus rally. If this scenario plays out, we can anticipate a potential decline in the price of TON, leading to a retest of the lower channel boundary at $4.50.
考虑到更广泛的市场状况和 Toncoin 生态系统面临的挑战,受圣诞老人反弹的影响,近期代币价格的复苏可能是短暂的。如果这种情况发生,我们可以预计 TON 的价格可能会下跌,从而导致重新测试通道下限 4.50 美元。
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