山寨幣季節來臨：比特幣主導地位被打破，TOTAL3 指數暗示山寨幣表現出色

比特幣在 2024 年表現出色，達到了新的高度並鞏固了其市場領導者的地位。 2025 年即將到來，BTC 繼續展現強勢

After a promising start to the year, with Bitcoin surging over 7% and spearheading a crypto market rebound, many investors are shifting their attention to altcoins, anticipating greater opportunities in the broader crypto space. This shift aligns with historical trends, as BTC rallies often pave the way for subsequent rallies in altcoins.

今年開局良好，比特幣飆升超過 7%，並引領加密貨幣市場反彈，許多投資者將注意力轉向山寨幣，預計在更廣泛的加密貨幣領域有更大的機會。這種轉變符合歷史趨勢，因為比特幣的上漲往往為山寨幣的後續上漲鋪路。

Top analyst Jelle recently highlighted this dynamic in a compelling technical analysis, indicating a potential shift in market attention. According to Jelle's analysis, TOTAL3—a market cap index that excludes BTC and ETH—appears poised to enter a price discovery phase, a period where assets tend to rally to new highs driven by strong buying pressure.

頂級分析師 Jelle 最近在一項引人注目的技術分析中強調了這一動態，表明市場注意力可能發生轉變。根據 Jelle 的分析，TOTAL3（不包括 BTC 和 ETH 的市值指數）似乎準備進入價格發現階段，在此階段，資產往往會在強勁購買壓力的推動下反彈至新高。

This shift in market attention is further supported by a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance, a measure of BTC's share of the total cryptocurrency market. This signals a weakening of BTC's market control, which could spur greater attention and capital flowing into altcoins.

比特幣主導地位的崩盤進一步支持了市場注意力的轉變，比特幣主導地位是衡量比特幣在整個加密貨幣市場中所佔份額的指標。這標誌著比特幣市場控制力的減弱，這可能會刺激更多的注意力和資本流入山寨幣。

Collectively, these indicators point to the potential onset of an alt season, a period when alternative cryptocurrencies typically outperform BTC. With BTC stabilizing at crucial levels, the conditions appear favorable for altcoins to capture investor attention in the coming weeks. This will be a pivotal period in determining whether this trend gains momentum and reshapes the market landscape for 2025.

總的來說，這些指標表明替代季節可能即將到來，在此期間替代加密貨幣的表現通常會優於比特幣。隨著比特幣穩定在關鍵水平，山寨幣在未來幾週內似乎有利於吸引投資者的注意。這將是決定這一趨勢是否獲得動力並重塑 2025 年市場格局的關鍵時期。

Time For An Alt Season: Analysis and Key Takeaways

另類季節的時間：分析與關鍵要點

Bitcoin had a stellar 2024, reaching new all-time highs and solidifying its position as the market leader. As 2025 unfolds, BTC continues to show strength, but a shift in market dynamics could be on the horizon.

比特幣在 2024 年表現出色，創下歷史新高，鞏固了其市場領導者的地位。隨著 2025 年的到來，比特幣繼續表現出強勢，但市場動態可能即將發生轉變。

Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance often recedes during periods when altcoins gain traction, and this year could be no exception. Top analyst Jelle recently provided insights into these shifting dynamics through a detailed technical analysis of TOTAL3 and BTC dominance.

從歷史上看，當山寨幣受到關注時，比特幣的主導地位往往會減弱，今年也不例外。頂級分析師 Jelle 最近透過對 TOTAL3 和 BTC 主導地位的詳細技術分析，提供了這些變化動態的見解。

TOTAL3, an index tracking the market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and Ethereum, appears poised to enter price discovery – a phase where assets usually rally to new highs driven by heightened demand. At the same time, Bitcoin's market dominance has just experienced a significant breakdown, suggesting that altcoins may soon take the lead in capturing investor interest.

TOTAL3 是一個追蹤 BTC 和以太坊之外的山寨幣市值的指數，它似乎準備進入價格發現階段——在這一階段，資產通常會因需求增加而上漲至新高。與此同時，比特幣的市場主導地位剛剛經歷了重大崩潰，這表明山寨幣可能很快就會率先吸引投資者的興趣。

Jelle’s analysis highlights that as Bitcoin stabilizes near key levels, liquidity often flows into altcoins, triggering what is popularly known as an alt season. During these periods, altcoins historically outperform BTC, providing substantial returns for investors willing to diversify.

傑爾的分析強調，隨著比特幣穩定在關鍵水平附近，流動性往往會流入山寨幣，從而引發俗稱的山寨幣季節。在這些時期，山寨幣的表現歷來優於比特幣，為願意多元化的投資者提供了可觀的回報。

The combination of Bitcoin's strong foundation and the potential for altcoin outperformance sets the stage for 2025 to be a remarkable year for the broader crypto market. As TOTAL3 inches closer to price discovery and BTC dominance weakens, the opportunity for altcoins to shine becomes increasingly evident.

比特幣的堅實基礎和山寨幣優異表現的潛力相結合，為 2025 年成為更廣泛的加密市場非凡的一年奠定了基礎。隨著 TOTAL 距離價格發現又近了 3 英寸，而 BTC 的主導地位正在減弱，山寨幣大放異彩的機會變得越來越明顯。

Price Action: Key Levels To Watch

價格走勢：值得關注的關鍵水平

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,900, with the price testing the crucial 4-hour 200 Moving Average (MA) at $98,139. This level has become a pivotal point for BTC, determining whether the bulls can regain control and push the price above the $100K mark. Reclaiming and holding above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, paving the way for a strong breakout.

比特幣目前交易價格為 97,900 美元，價格測試關鍵的 4 小時 200 移動平均線 (MA) 98,139 美元。這一水準已成為 BTC 的關鍵點，決定多頭能否重新獲得控制權並將價格推至 10 萬美元大關之上。收復並保持在該水平之上將標誌著新的看漲勢頭，為強勁突破鋪平道路。

However, the market is proceeding with caution. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 4-hour 200 MA, we could see an extended period of consolidation in the price action of BTC. This sideways movement would likely test the patience of traders and investors alike.

然而，市場正在謹慎行事。如果比特幣未能守住 4 小時 200 日均線，我們可能會看到 BTC 價格走勢出現較長時間的盤整。這種橫向走勢可能會考驗交易者和投資者的耐心。

The key support to monitor is the 4-hour 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $95,881. Losing this level could signal a deeper correction, raising concerns about a potential retest of lower demand zones.

需要監控的關鍵支撐位是 4 小時 200 指數移動平均線 (EMA)，即 95,881 美元。失去這一水準可能預示著更深層的調整，引發人們對可能重新測試較低需求區域的擔憂。

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the 4-hour 200 MA and push higher will define its short-term trajectory. A sustained move above $98,139 and a breakthrough past $100K would confirm bullish strength. Conversely, a break below the 4-hour EMA could delay the next leg of the rally, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. The coming days will be critical for BTC's direction.

目前，比特幣能否守住 4 小時 200 日均線並繼續走高，將決定其短期走勢。持續突破 98,139 美元並突破 10 萬美元將證實看漲力量。相反，跌破 4 小時均線可能會推遲下一階段的上漲，使市場處於不確定狀態。未來幾天對於比特幣的走向至關重要。