山寨币季节来临：比特币主导地位被打破，TOTAL3 指数暗示山寨币表现出色

比特币在 2024 年表现出色，达到了新的高度并巩固了其市场领导者的地位。 2025 年即将到来，BTC 继续展现强势

After a promising start to the year, with Bitcoin surging over 7% and spearheading a crypto market rebound, many investors are shifting their attention to altcoins, anticipating greater opportunities in the broader crypto space. This shift aligns with historical trends, as BTC rallies often pave the way for subsequent rallies in altcoins.

今年开局良好，比特币飙升超过 7%，并引领加密货币市场反弹，许多投资者将注意力转向山寨币，预计在更广泛的加密货币领域有更大的机会。这种转变符合历史趋势，因为比特币的上涨往往为山寨币的后续上涨铺平道路。

Top analyst Jelle recently highlighted this dynamic in a compelling technical analysis, indicating a potential shift in market attention. According to Jelle's analysis, TOTAL3—a market cap index that excludes BTC and ETH—appears poised to enter a price discovery phase, a period where assets tend to rally to new highs driven by strong buying pressure.

顶级分析师 Jelle 最近在一项引人注目的技术分析中强调了这一动态，表明市场注意力可能发生转变。根据 Jelle 的分析，TOTAL3（不包括 BTC 和 ETH 的市值指数）似乎准备进入价格发现阶段，在此阶段，资产往往会在强劲购买压力的推动下反弹至新高。

This shift in market attention is further supported by a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance, a measure of BTC's share of the total cryptocurrency market. This signals a weakening of BTC's market control, which could spur greater attention and capital flowing into altcoins.

比特币主导地位的崩溃进一步支持了市场注意力的转变，比特币主导地位是衡量比特币在整个加密货币市场中所占份额的指标。这标志着比特币市场控制力的减弱，这可能会刺激更多的注意力和资本流入山寨币。

Collectively, these indicators point to the potential onset of an alt season, a period when alternative cryptocurrencies typically outperform BTC. With BTC stabilizing at crucial levels, the conditions appear favorable for altcoins to capture investor attention in the coming weeks. This will be a pivotal period in determining whether this trend gains momentum and reshapes the market landscape for 2025.

总的来说，这些指标表明替代季节可能即将到来，在此期间替代加密货币的表现通常会优于比特币。随着比特币稳定在关键水平，山寨币在未来几周内似乎有利于吸引投资者的注意力。这将是决定这一趋势是否获得动力并重塑 2025 年市场格局的关键时期。

Time For An Alt Season: Analysis and Key Takeaways

另类季节的时间：分析和关键要点

Bitcoin had a stellar 2024, reaching new all-time highs and solidifying its position as the market leader. As 2025 unfolds, BTC continues to show strength, but a shift in market dynamics could be on the horizon.

比特币在 2024 年表现出色，创下历史新高，巩固了其市场领导者的地位。随着 2025 年的到来，比特币继续表现出强势，但市场动态可能即将发生转变。

Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance often recedes during periods when altcoins gain traction, and this year could be no exception. Top analyst Jelle recently provided insights into these shifting dynamics through a detailed technical analysis of TOTAL3 and BTC dominance.

从历史上看，当山寨币受到关注时，比特币的主导地位往往会减弱，今年也不例外。顶级分析师 Jelle 最近通过对 TOTAL3 和 BTC 主导地位的详细技术分析，提供了对这些变化动态的见解。

TOTAL3, an index tracking the market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and Ethereum, appears poised to enter price discovery – a phase where assets usually rally to new highs driven by heightened demand. At the same time, Bitcoin's market dominance has just experienced a significant breakdown, suggesting that altcoins may soon take the lead in capturing investor interest.

TOTAL3 是一个追踪除 BTC 和以太坊之外的山寨币市值的指数，它似乎准备进入价格发现阶段——在这一阶段，资产通常会因需求增加而上涨至新高。与此同时，比特币的市场主导地位刚刚经历了重大崩溃，这表明山寨币可能很快就会率先吸引投资者的兴趣。

Jelle’s analysis highlights that as Bitcoin stabilizes near key levels, liquidity often flows into altcoins, triggering what is popularly known as an alt season. During these periods, altcoins historically outperform BTC, providing substantial returns for investors willing to diversify.

杰尔的分析强调，随着比特币稳定在关键水平附近，流动性往往会流入山寨币，从而引发俗称的山寨币季节。在这些时期，山寨币的表现历来优于比特币，为愿意多元化的投资者提供了可观的回报。

The combination of Bitcoin's strong foundation and the potential for altcoin outperformance sets the stage for 2025 to be a remarkable year for the broader crypto market. As TOTAL3 inches closer to price discovery and BTC dominance weakens, the opportunity for altcoins to shine becomes increasingly evident.

比特币的坚实基础和山寨币优异表现的潜力相结合，为 2025 年成为更广泛的加密市场非凡的一年奠定了基础。随着 TOTAL 距离价格发现又近了 3 英寸，而 BTC 的主导地位正在减弱，山寨币大放异彩的机会变得越来越明显。

Price Action: Key Levels To Watch

价格走势：值得关注的关键水平

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,900, with the price testing the crucial 4-hour 200 Moving Average (MA) at $98,139. This level has become a pivotal point for BTC, determining whether the bulls can regain control and push the price above the $100K mark. Reclaiming and holding above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, paving the way for a strong breakout.

比特币目前交易价格为 97,900 美元，价格测试关键的 4 小时 200 移动平均线 (MA) 98,139 美元。这一水平已成为 BTC 的关键点，决定多头能否重新获得控制权并将价格推至 10 万美元大关之上。收复并保持在该水平上方将标志着新的看涨势头，为强劲突破铺平道路。

However, the market is proceeding with caution. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 4-hour 200 MA, we could see an extended period of consolidation in the price action of BTC. This sideways movement would likely test the patience of traders and investors alike.

然而，市场正在谨慎行事。如果比特币未能守住 4 小时 200 日均线，我们可能会看到 BTC 价格走势出现较长时间的盘整。这种横向走势可能会考验交易者和投资者的耐心。

The key support to monitor is the 4-hour 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $95,881. Losing this level could signal a deeper correction, raising concerns about a potential retest of lower demand zones.

需要监控的关键支撑位是 4 小时 200 指数移动平均线 (EMA)，即 95,881 美元。失去这一水平可能预示着更深层次的调整，引发人们对可能重新测试较低需求区域的担忧。

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the 4-hour 200 MA and push higher will define its short-term trajectory. A sustained move above $98,139 and a breakthrough past $100K would confirm bullish strength. Conversely, a break below the 4-hour EMA could delay the next leg of the rally, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. The coming days will be critical for BTC's direction.

目前，比特币能否守住 4 小时 200 日均线并继续走高，将决定其短期走势。持续突破 98,139 美元并突破 10 万美元将证实看涨力量。相反，跌破 4 小时均线可能会推迟下一阶段的上涨，使市场处于不确定状态。未来几天对于比特币的走向至关重要。